Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Hugh'sMrs]

I didn't have midnight showings for Star Trek at my theatres here and I think they just showed them on Thursday instead of at midnight so it can be seen as equal. The fact that it opened in less venues than Wolverine and has already caught up says something.

The early Thursday shows weren't even advertised. I went with a group of people who were planning to go to a midnight show. When we got to the theater early to get in line it was only then that we realized there was other shows. Other people arriving to get in line were also unaware of the earlier shows so someone dropped the ball with that ad campaign. Our entire group hadn't arrived in time for the 9pm show so we had to wait for the next one but at least we got home before 3am.

I went to see Wolverine a couple of days later and it had already been relegated to one of the small auditoriums. There were about a dozen of us in the theater which is pretty bad for a weekend.

 

[Downhere]

Well, estimates for the weekend are at $14 million for a 47% drop, I guess it's finding it's legs. $180+ million is still achievable I think.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

The early estimates are in for Friday, and it looks as though Angels & Demons will win the weekend, but with less than some had expected. It did $17m yesterday and predictions for the entire weekend are around $45-50m. Star Trek stays very strong with an estimated $12.5m haul, for an expected high $30 to low $40 million take, falling only 45-50% in its second weekend. Wolverine made $4.1m for $12-14 mill overall, dropping a much healthier 50% in its third outing. Here's some links:

http://www.darkhorizons.com/news/14154/-demons-tops-trek-still-strong/

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.c...ised-down-to-40sm-star-trek-on-track-for-36m/

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Of note, both Demons' and Trek's final totals will benefit greatly from their respective Saturday/Sunday takes, as their audiences are skewed towards an older demographic. Demons in paticular could see a HUGE uptick for today, but Trek should see a significant increase as well.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Well, estimates for the weekend are at $14 million for a 47% drop, I guess it's finding it's legs. $180+ million is still achievable I think.

I dont know about $180 million plus, but it'll be at $150 million this weekend, domestic. It would have to have Iron Man type legs to make the some you are talking about IMO, $170 million max I see this getting.

 

[Downhere]

I dont know about $180 million plus, but it'll be at $150 million this weekend, domestic. It would have to have Iron Man type legs to make the some you are talking about IMO, $170 million max I see this getting.

If it were to continue dropping 50% here on out, it should get to $180 million. We have memorial day weekend next weekend which will help it as well, plus it's dailies. If it can stay leveled out from here on out, $180 is a realistic expectation.

 

[Celestial]

Its problem will be holding onto screens. But A&D underperforming may help a little.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I don't think it should have that big a problem holding it's screens. It won't be disastrous anyway. I still predict about 175-180 million US about 150 million international. I think Wolverine will make 300 million WW, quite easily actually.

 

[kedrell]

I believe the estimates will go down when the actuals are released, yet again. I don't think it'll get to 150M this weekend but come up short by 2-3M. Factor in about another 20M or so for the rest of it's run and it'll end up in the mid-high 160M's, which is where I had it pegged at from the start. Just a hair under a 2.0X multiplier. Final DOM total = 167M.

 

[chaseter]

I voted 170 and I am proud that I hit it pretty dead on.

 

[topdog1]

Well, estimates for the weekend are at $14 million for a 47% drop, I guess it's finding it's legs. $180+ million is still achievable I think.

Good the hear. I paid to see it again on Friday. There were a lot of people in the cinema to see it. That made me happy.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Here's a link to Box Office Mojo's "Friday Report": http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2586&p=.htm

And here's what they had to say about WO's BO performance;

"While continuing to be the least-attended X-Men movie, X-Men Origins: Wolverine had a third Friday percentage fall that was smaller than the last two movies. The prequel grossed an estimated $4.3 million, bringing its tally to $140.6 million in 15 days. That suggests its third weekend will be in the vicinity of $14 million."

 

[chaseter]

I will laugh hard if it doesn't pass X1's box office and it looks like it is going to be close.

 

[Downhere]

I will laugh hard if it doesn't pass X1's box office and it looks like it is going to be close.

You will not be laughing as it will pass X1's take. Next weekend should be good as well considering the long weekend with Memorial Day and all. That should give it a little bump.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

I will laugh hard if it doesn't pass X1's box office and it looks like it is going to be close.

It will pass X1's worldwide $296,339,527 take, but is already behind in actual attendance, 'cause according to BOM...

"... it trails the first X-Men adjusted for ticket price inflation, as well as X2: X-Men United and The Last Stand by wide margins..."

That was from a report on its second weekend performance.

Here's how they stack up domestically when X1 IS adjusted for ticket price inflation, once again, according to BOM:

Total Gross (Adjusted): X1 - $209,538,400 / WO - $140,561,000
Opening Weekend* (Adjusted): X1 - $72,561,300 / WO - $85,058,000
Theaters: X1 - 3,025 / WO - 4,099
Average (Adjusted): X1 - $24,000 / WO - $20,800
Opening % of Total: X1 - 34.6% / WO - 60.5%
Second Weekend Drop: X1 - -56.9% / WO - -69.0%
Widest Release: X1 - 3,112 / WO - 4,102

X1's actual domestic gross was $157,299,717 and its foreign was $139,039,810. While BOM doesn't provide the adjusted total for the foreign and worldwide figures, we'll use the same 1.33 multiplier they did for its domestic above. That would bring X1's foreign gross up to the amount of $184,922,947 today, and bring its worldwide total to an impressive $394,461,347 million. WO will fall WELL short of that!

Here's the link comparing them, as well as X2 & TLS: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?adjust_yr=2009&id=vs-xmen.htm

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

You will not be laughing as it will pass X1's take. Next weekend should be good as well considering the long weekend with Memorial Day and all. That should give it a little bump.

LOL! Not so fast there Downhere, see above. Sorry to burst your bubble!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I predict it's going to lose alot of theaters M-Day, but who knows? I'm not good at predicting theater drops.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

BTW, both X2 & TLS would be close to $500m WW if they were released today. WO will come in a massive $150+ million behind them, at least... OUCH!

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

I predict it's going to lose alot of theaters M-Day, but who knows? I'm not good at predicting theater drops.

Most likely, they'll need to make some room for sure, as both Terminator Salvation and Night at the Museum II will be entering the fray. Angels & Demons just came out, and Star Trek is holding MUCH better, so that leaves Wolverine as the weak link. WO appears to be the whipping boy of the season thus far, although going by A&D's dismal opening, it could easily be usurped of that position.

 

[Celestial]

The rest of the top 10 have about 15,000 theatres between them and much lower averages than Wolverine. I could see Wolverine dropping to just one screen per theatre but not losing too many theatres. Even if it loses 20% of its theatres, it will still be in more than 3,000.

Is Terminator Salvation really due out in the US next week? Where are the reviews? What's the buzz? I couldn't even see anything at AICN.

The latest from DeadlineHollywoodDaily:

At No. 3, Fox's X-Men Origins: Wolverine earned $4.2M Friday and $6.6M Saturday from 3,892 venues for a $15M weekend after two weeks in theaters and fresh $151M cume.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

The rest of the top 10 have about 15,000 theatres between them and much lower averages than Wolverine. I could see Wolverine dropping to just one screen per theatre but not losing too many theatres.

You could be right, we'll see.

Is Terminator Salvation really due out in the US next week? Where are the reviews? What's the buzz? I couldn't even see anything at AICN.

I honestly have no idea how this film is gonna do. At first, I thought it was going to get a very lukewarm reception. But the latest commercials I've seen on the tube are far more exciting than the trailers online, so it could be solid and do some numbers. There's a lot of variables with this one, much could depend on the reviews.

One thing WO, Trek, and even A&D have in their favor tho, is that Museum II looks to be even more craptastic than the first one... if that's possible, lol. But there's no accounting for taste, so...

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

The latest from DeadlineHollywoodDaily:

ThanX for the early update! Ha-ha @ A&D, tho its international is supposedly thru-the-roof. Props to Trek, and yes Wolverine, for both doing better than expected. Here's the full quotes for each:

The No. 2 movie was Paramount's Star Trek which showed strong legs Saturday with $18M, down only 34% from a week ago -- a remarkable hold as great word-of-mouth about the film kicked in. Add in Friday's $11.8M and Sunday's estimate, and JJ Abrams' reboot earned another big $42M, down 44% from last week's total. Its new cume is $147.6M.

At No. 3, Fox's X-Men Origins: Wolverine earned $4.2M Friday and $6.6M Saturday from 3,892 venues for a $15M weekend after two weeks in theaters and fresh $151M cume.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Star Trek only dropped 44%? Very good, I thought it'd be at least 50% It's good to see Wolverine isn't completely dead yet either. I think it will get another 10-15 mill US. Maybe more.

 

[Downhere]

Star Trek only dropped 44%? Very good, I thought it'd be at least 50% It's good to see Wolverine isn't completely dead yet either. I think it will get another 10-15 mill US. Maybe more.

10-15 million more in the US only? From a 15 million dollar third weekend? You need to up that to 20-35 million. If the 15 million dollar weekend holds, that's a 43% drop which would make it the best third weekend drop in the franchise. Next weekend should provide a good hold as well considering it's a holiday weekend, plus the dailies which all together should, at the very least, give it another 20 million. I'm thinking it will have enough power to get to $180 million.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

If it were to continue dropping 50% here on out, it should get to $180 million. We have memorial day weekend next weekend which will help it as well, plus it's dailies. If it can stay leveled out from here on out, $180 is a realistic expectation.

With Terminator and Night At The Museum 2 out next week, I can only see it dropping rapidly, but who knows.