Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[kedrell]

Yeah , its definately not more expensive than TLS, but, definately cost more to make than X1 and X2. I still think it will will make a healthy profit though, dvd is a factor also.

I read in today's LA Times that the DVD market is slumping. The article states that a lot of studio heads are in a small panic over this since the DVD market was traditionally their firewall that often was the main reason they eventually turned a profit. But the article states that even though theater attendance is up, the DVD area is suffering for multiple reasons. It also says that audiences are becoming more quality conscious when it comes to DVD purchases and gives IJ4 & IM's theatrical run vs. their DVD sales as an example. They made pretty close to the same $ in theaters but IM blew IJ4 away on DVD sales.

So considering the quality, I wouldn't look for XO:W to do a lot of great business on DVD compared to previous X-Men DVD sales.

 

[EnDz0n3]

I also don't believe that W: O was the priciest film in the franchise. For one thing, it looked it.

For another, the reason Fox opted to make a Wolverine spin-off, as opposed to an ensemble X-men 4, was to save on the cost of having a cast that would have definitely asked for more money. Unless the extra dough was spent on unplanned expenses like costly reshoots, etc. I just can't picture Fox purposely shelling out huge amounts of money on a spinoff.

According to this http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?adjust_yr=2009&id=vs-xmen.htm , WO's production budget was $150 million and TLS's was $210M. X2 was made for $110M and X1 an incomprehensible, if laughable, $75M.

Budgets in that range was definitely not unheard of at that time. For example the first Matrix had a production budget in the mid 60's.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I read in today's LA Times that the DVD market is slumping. The article states that a lot of studio heads are in a small panic over this since the DVD market was traditionally their firewall that often was the main reason they eventually turned a profit. But the article states that even though theater attendance is up, the DVD area is suffering for multiple reasons. It also says that audiences are becoming more quality conscious when it comes to DVD purchases and gives IJ4 & IM's theatrical run vs. their DVD sales as an example. They made pretty close to the same $ in theaters but IM blew IJ4 away on DVD sales.

So considering the quality, I wouldn't look for XO:W to do a lot of great business on DVD compared to previous X-Men DVD sales.

I hope that is true. People need to refuse to buy these medicore to bad movies. Taking money out of lazy-wood's pockets will be the only way we start getting better movies...or maybe not. It's just wishful thinking on my part.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

What do you mean refuse to buy mediocre movies? If the people think they are mediocre or bad they wouldn't buy them anyway would they? It's not as though they are forced to buy a DVD/Blu-Ray they don't want.

 

[topdog1]

Running at $175 million domestic even though the entire movie has been on the Internet since early April is as amazing as it gets. Word of mouth is indeed strong for it to overcome that HUGE handicap.

(BTW- Wolverine's budget was $130 million)

 

[Ace of Knaves]

175 million US?!?! Already?!?! I thought that is what it would finish at. It must be doing very well in mid-week then.

 

[TheZink]

Last I checked it was $152 million as of Monday.

Unless it managed near $20 million in a day it is not at $170million.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Well yea that's why I was so surpised. It can't be at 175 already. I think it will finish up around that mark, maybe 180

 

[Heretic]

Its doing pretty darn well...despite being awful. I expect another massive fall with Terminator: Batman coming out this weekend.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Terminator: Batman

 

[TheZink]

Terminator: Batman

John Conner, he is the hero we deserve, but not the hero we need right now.

 

[Jick]

So we'll hunt him...put the T-600 after him

 

[chaseter]

Running at $175 million domestic even though the entire movie has been on the Internet since early April is as amazing as it gets. Word of mouth is indeed strong for it to overcome that HUGE handicap.

(BTW- Wolverine's budget was $130 million)

This entire post is completely wrong.

No, this isn't at 175 and the budget was more than 130. It has been said many times that the budget was 150 and a producer even said that it was more than 165.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

[BLACKOUT]But think about it, would a producer admit they cheaped out? There is no way this movie's budget was 165. It's just not possible. Of course they are gonna say "This is a mega budget blockbuster of supreme SFX quality!!"[/BLACKOUT]

 

[chaseter]

[blackout]But think about it, would a producer admit they cheaped out? There is no way this movie's budget was 165. It's just not possible. Of course they are gonna say "This is a mega budget blockbuster of supreme SFX quality!!"[/blackout]

Why would they cheap out? SM3 didn't cheap out and I still thought some of the sfx were crap.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Why would they cheap out? SM3 didn't cheap out and I still thought some of the sfx were crap.

[BLACKOUT]Why wouldn't they cheap out? It's pretty obvious they wanted to make a cheap-ish blockbuster. A quick buck. This is Fox we are talking about right? They are in the business of making money. Weighing out loads of it isn't good business.[/BLACKOUT]

 

[chaseter]

I don't think they cheaped out. I think that the director didn't know how to properly utilize his funds.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Well I think they used a crappy SFX studio to cut costs. Just look at all the promo posters. It seems like they have gone round the office and picked a bunch of people with barely any knowledge of photoshop and assigned them to do the promo campaign. That is called cheaping out. It's OBVIOUS

 

[chaseter]

They used different sfx companies which is why the quality isn't even. They didn't allow enough time for one or two sfx companies to do all the work so they gave out the work to multiple ones. Some of the scenes looked great. Like the big shot of the carnival after Bolt is murdered, most of that was sfx and it looked real. Cyclops' power display looked good. Gambit's power display looked fantastic. Emma looked good. Had they used one or two sfx companies then I think we would have gotten a better looking movie.

Had they not thrown in a million cameos then they would have saved money.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Well to be honest it's not as though any of those cameos are big name actors who command big paychecks. The only ones that were highly paid were Hugh, Liev, Huston, Reynolds and maybe Will.I.Am I reckon.

 

[chaseter]

The sfx to make them look cool costs money.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

As of today on BOM ST has officially overtaken Wolverine domestically, and is making more than double daily at the moment. After seeing ST today, I think it totally deserves it.

 

[Raiden]

As of today on BOM ST has officially overtaken Wolverine domestically, and is making more than double daily at the moment. After seeing ST today, I think it totally deserves it.

After seeing both movies, I agree with you that Star Trek >>> Wolverine, which is a shame because Wolverine has so much potential to be a great film. But weak character developments and spotty script (among other reasons) really hurt the movie.

 

[X-Maniac]

They used different sfx companies which is why the quality isn't even. They didn't allow enough time for one or two sfx companies to do all the work so they gave out the work to multiple ones. Some of the scenes looked great. Like the big shot of the carnival after Bolt is murdered, most of that was sfx and it looked real. Cyclops' power display looked good. Gambit's power display looked fantastic. Emma looked good. Had they used one or two sfx companies then I think we would have gotten a better looking movie.

Had they not thrown in a million cameos then they would have saved money.

I was under the impression that most fantasy/sci-fi movies requiring loads of FX used multiple companies in order to get all the work completed on time. You only have to watch the credits of any big 'effects epic' and you'll see many different companies involved, often focusing on just one or two elements. This is why you do get some inconsistency in the quality of FX in movies.

 

[chaseter]

Most use a couple or a few. Star Trek was done by ILM and Digital Domain. For the LOTR trilogy, WETA and Digital Domain. For the POTC trilogy, ILM. Those companies are big names in the sfx world.

Wolverine ended up with a whopping 17 vendors. Hydraulx and Soho were lead vendors, Luma Pictures, Method Studios and Rising Sun Pictures worked on key sequences, while additional vfx were created at Matte World Digital, Frantic Films, Fuel, Lola, Hatch FX, Café FX, Cinesite, Cosa and Image Asylum. Cinedev, Persistence of Vision and Frantic provided previs services.

I think that is why some of the graphics and visual styles are not consistent throughout the film. The main thing is that whatever company did the claw effects, they need to be shut down.