Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Well, Box Office Mojo lists Batman Begins budget at $150 million, which is understandable considering all the practical effects used. So, I'm going with that since BOM is usually good with putting accurate costs.

Either way, considering all the doom and gloom most were saying for Wolverine, it's actually doing fairly decent.

Actually BO mojo isnt that reliable on its budgets, it list Superman Returns budget as $270 million when it was officially $204 million.

BB, production wise, only cost $130-140 million.

Loved UP too...Saw it in 3D Friday Midnite...though missed about 10 mins of the beginning...STUPID SISTER...

I havent visited other threads but is anyone else ecstatic that Bryan Singer is now saying he's open to coming back to the franchise?!?!

I would love him to do X4, and wipe the memory of that dreadful X3 off the face of the Earth.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Yea box office mojo isn't accurate a lot of the time.

 

[Downhere]

Usually Mojo is pretty accurate, with SR, I believe they added the money spent on failed attempts to the budget. It's hard to gage what is accurate or not unless it comes from the studio itself.

 

[chaseter]

I think it is safe to say that Singer would do X4 or First Class and not Wolverine 2 because they basically just crapped over what he established in X1-X2.

 

[Celestial]

Because I get nerdy about numbers, I've been trying to calculate the final domestic total for Wolverine. From this point, the first three X-Men movies made a further $13m, $16m and $9m respectively. Last weekend, Wolverine made 94%, 76% and 80% of the equivalent weekends of the three. If this continues, that would suggest a further $7-12m giving a total in the range $178m to $183m. The difference between X3's $9m and X2's $16m comes down to number of theatres. X2 held onto more theatres for longer than X3. Wolverine's theatre count should take a big hit next weekend as the new releases want around 8,000 theatres.

 

[chaseter]

Well with two new movies coming out this weekend with big names I think Wolverine will be out of theatres.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

It won't be completely out of theatres, but it will take a drop for sure.

What films are out this weekend anyway?

 

[LostSon88]

The Hangover (which has gotten REALLY GOOD reviews) and Land of the Lost (Will Ferrell doin' what he does)...

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Ahhh I see.

 

[Dog Logan]

As of Friday Wolverine is in 11th place, but still doing pretty good overall. My prediction of about $400 million worldwide was about right.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

As of Friday Wolverine is in 11th place, but still doing pretty good overall. My prediction of about $400 million worldwide was about right.

I don't think it's got enough juice left in it to do another $50-60M WW, which is what it would need to hit your prediction. On a side note, I do believe this will be the first X-Men related film where the international take will exceed the domestic. While it's not a complete failure, as some have argued, it's hardly the raging success that others have championed either. Actually, I'd consider it more of a modest success to mild disappointment theatrically. DVD sales should help in making it more profitable for Fox though. Only time will tell now if Fox's enthusiasm for sequels and spin-offs will be dampened by WO's performance. I wonder why it wasn't released in the IMAX format? That surely would have helped its domestic gross.

 

[JaD]

Wolverine in IMAX? I can't really picture that, not an hour and a half movie no.

 

[Dog Logan]

I don't think it's got enough juice left in it to do another $50-60M WW, which is what it would need to hit your prediction. On a side note, I do believe this will be the first X-Men related film where the international take will exceed the domestic. While it's not a complete failure, as some have argued, it's hardly the raging success that others have championed either. Actually, I'd consider it more of a modest success to mild disappointment theatrically. DVD sales should help in making it more profitable for Fox though. Only time will tell now if Fox's enthusiasm for sequels and spin-offs will be dampened by WO's performance. I wonder why it wasn't released in the IMAX format? That surely would have helped its domestic gross.

While I wouldn't say the movie is a raging success, I wouldn't categorize it as being a modest success to a mild disappointment as it's at least made it's budget back and is now making profit. I highly doubt it'll double it's budget, which most people think movies have to do to be considered a true success when in fact if that were the case most movies would be considered failures. But, it still has a little juice left so I'm sure it'll make more money within the next week before it falls completely off the radar.

 

[Celestial]

In something I read recently, it described Wolverine as a "hit" and Star Trek as a "smash" and I think they've got it right. I'm sure Fox were hoping for a smash but they'll also be relieved that it didn't go the way of Terminator Salvation.

The "double the budget" metric seems outdated. If it worked that way, the studios would be bankrupt. These days, substantial income comes from overseas and "post-theatrical" whereas 15 years ago, maybe not so much.

It certainly looks like Wolverine will take more overseas than in the domestic market. It will probably stop just short of $180m in the US. Overseas is hard to predict - will it be a hit or miss in Japan? The box office for the X-Men films was $16m, $15m and $13m so it could be good for at least $10m. Maybe the promise of a sequel in Japan will help.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

... made it's budget back and is now making profit. I highly doubt it'll double it's budget, which most people think movies have to do to be considered a true success...

Profit is a tricky thing to determine when it comes to movie releases though, as there are many factors to take into consideration. Taken at face value you'd be correct, and in the past, I would have wholeheartedly agreed with you. But something I read recently about Angels & Demons after it's opening weekend changed my view. It said the production budget was $150M, then adding in another $100M for WW marketing and prints, the total cost would be $250M. The article went on to say that considering theatres get to keep about half the gross, that A&D would need to do $500M just to break even. I don't know how accurate that is, because 50% seems a little egregious to me. But no matter the factual details, the point is, a studio's returns on their investments aren't as simple as WW cume minus production and marketing costs.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

In something I read recently, it described Wolverine as a "hit" and Star Trek as a "smash" and I think they've got it right. I'm sure Fox were hoping for a smash but they'll also be relieved that it didn't go the way of Terminator Salvation.

Yeah, the "hit"/"smash" comparison sounds like a fair assessment. And you're right, it's virtually impossible to put a positive spin on Terminator Salvation's BO performance. The problem with that mindset is, one could say that yeah, but Salvation didn't do as bad as Land of the Lost, lol. So where does it stop, and when do we stop making excuses? And by your own remarks of "hoping for" and "relieved that", I think it's also fair to say that my tag of "mild disappoitment" is accurate and justified.

These days, substantial income comes from overseas and "post-theatrical" whereas 15 years ago, maybe not so much.

I still think that in the end, the domestic run is what matters most, for various reasons like currency and the aforementioned percentages.


And please don't get me wrong, I am by no means a "hater". I critique because I love the X-Men and know what they're capable of. I mean, just LOOK at 'em:

They have the same potential as other sci-fi/fantasy franchises, such as LOTR, Potter, Star Wars, Spider-Man, etc., if done right. Every one of their films should've been cutting-edge, visionary, and downright EPIC!!! Alas, they weren't. While the first one showed promise of things to come, and the second upped the ante and approached greatness, I feel as though the ball was dropped with these last two. And that saddens me... greatly. I feel robbed, and am now disillusioned by Fox, but moreso by Marvel. After all, I don't get the impression that they care for the X-Men as much as we fans do. But I will never give up hope, and continue to think... "someday". Peace.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Any news on the latest international number for Wolverine at all, I'm interested to see were it is upto at the moment.

 

[Downhere]

Fox's "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" drew $3.2 million on the weekend from 5,096 sites in 48 territories, hiking its foreign cume to $176.2 million.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i0bc78baf8235f8b4d3afdfb8a09703e3

Worldwide total is at $350 million.

 

[Dog Logan]

It's still doing pretty good. I think the worldwide total is going to end somewhere around $370 million.

 

[Celestial]

So that's $174.2m domestic and $176.2m international. Maybe another $4-5m domestic, another $2-3m international excluding Japan and $8-15m from Japan.

 

[returntovoid]

And please don't get me wrong, I am by no means a "hater". I critique because I love the X-Men and know what they're capable of. I mean, just LOOK at 'em:

They have the same potential as other sci-fi/fantasy franchises, such as LOTR, Potter, Star Wars, Spider-Man, etc., if done right. Every one of their films should've been cutting-edge, visionary, and downright EPIC!!! Alas, they weren't. While the first one showed promise of things to come, and the second upped the ante and approached greatness, I feel as though the ball was dropped with these last two. And that saddens me... greatly. I feel robbed, and am now disillusioned by Fox, but moreso by Marvel. After all, I don't get the impression that they care for the X-Men as much as we fans do. But I will never give up hope, and continue to think... "someday". Peace.

You have a really good point there.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i0bc78baf8235f8b4d3afdfb8a09703e3

Worldwide total is at $350 million.

Cool thanks, when does it open in Japan exactly?

 

[Downhere]

Cool thanks, when does it open in Japan exactly?

September.

 

[the a1ant]

You have a really good point there.

While I've enjoyed the films, I have to agree...the franchise has never really reached its full potential. It could be SO MUCH bigger and better. Maybe the next 'wave' will focus more on the sci-fi fantasy elements than the stark realism.

 

[Dog Logan]

I agree there because people tend to go to see movies that aren't really tethered to realism than a totally realistic movie, unless it calls for it. With the X-Men, the fact that it's got so many unrealistic elements is what makes it enjoyable. I wanted an alien Phoenix, villains like Apocalypse....all that good stuff.