Far From Home Spider-Man: Far From Home ---- Official Box Office Prediction Thread

[shinlyle]

Honestly, I'm going to put my hat in the ring for a billion plus.

I'm looking at A4 being the biggest film possibly ever (truth), meaning expect that one to match/top the other Avengers films. With FFH being the first to follow that, I'm expecting at LEAST a billion, so long as A4 sticks the landing. People will want more...and the only place to get it for a YEAR will be right there. Look at IM3. Pretty divisive in hindsight, but it cleared a billion riding the Avengers wave...and after the very meh Iron Man 2.

If Avengers 4 sets out to do what it does, does it well, and it leaved people curious to see the new world, expect an easy billion for Spidey.

Now, if A4 sucks, and Sony makes trailers that give away the whole movie (TASM2), then expect only about 700 millions.

 

[shinlyle]

Legit shot at making 4B with 3 films two years in a row. 2018 did it with BP, IW and AM&TW at roughly 4.016B.

8B in 6 films would be ridiculous. Average of 1.33B per film.

#superherofatigue

Honestly, I think superhero fatigue is something made up by every film that can't cash in on the MCU model. DC was claiming it until WW, then they claimed it again until AM. It's insane...Marvel consistently brings in the money.

 

[spiderman2]

Honestly, I think superhero fatigue is something made up by every film that can't cash in on the MCU model. DC was claiming it until WW, then they claimed it again until AM. It's insane...Marvel consistently brings in the money.

Yep make good movies and people will show up its pretty simple really.

 

[shinlyle]

Yep make good movies and people will show up its pretty simple really.

You would think, right?

 

[Vic Ryan]

Yep make good movies and people will show up its pretty simple really.

Lol. If only....

 

[spiderman2]

Lol. If only....

Not saying bad movies dont make a lot of money but good movies are most likely going to have better legs then a bad movies and when it comes to CBM I think there is normally like a leak between boxoffice and how good the movie is.

 

[NHawk19]

I think it depends on End Game and how much more people want. There's a couple months there but I could see End Game being a jumping off point for some.

Last one made 800 Million WW. I'd stay in that range for now.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

I want it badly to make $1B. That'd be great for Sony -- their first $1B in history (can't count SKYFALL).

I voted around $900M. It'll make over $800M for sure, I just don't know where..

 

[shinlyle]

I will say that, if Avengers Tower is being converted into the Baxter Building and we get our first real look at the MCU FF, then it will kill all. The chance to see Peter and Johnny ribbing back and forth will cause me to watch it multiple times.

 

[samsnee]

$800-$900.

If having Stark in the last one didn’t do it, then this won’t hit a billion.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I have almost zero doubt that FFH is making a billion. Heck, Homecoming made 880m as a second reboot in a 5 year span, and Spidey has only gotten bigger since then, the PS4 game, Spider-Verse's Oscar win, his unanimously praised role in IW, and Tom Holland's risen level of fame.

 

[Binary10]

900-1billion+

 

[shinlyle]

I have almost zero doubt that FFH is making a billion. Heck, Homecoming made 880m as a second reboot in a 5 year span, and Spidey has only gotten bigger since then, the PS4 game, Spider-Verse's Oscar win, his unanimously praised role in IW, and Tom Holland's risen level of fame.

Yep. Spidey is heating up like crazy. I would honestly be shocked if it didn't top a billion. Also, it will definitely be riding that Endgame wave...

 

[Mysteryman]

$800-$900.

If having Stark in the last one didn’t do it, then this won’t hit a billion.

I agree.
It PROBABLY won't hit a billion ( you never know.)
However when it comes to Homecoming, 10 minutes of Stark was never going to amount to a billion.

 

[CaptainWagner]

This is releasing at a point where Spidey is riding higher than he has probably sense the original movie came out and it's the first MCU film post-Endgame that will supposedly directly play off of the events of that film. I'd be surprised if it doesn't hit a billion. Only thing stopping it is competition.

 

[Iceman]

It will be interesting to see how large Spidey’s EG role is, as that will help hype for this.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

It will be interesting to see how large Spidey’s EG role is, as that will help hype for this.

Probably as big as they've been in CW and IW..

 

[shinlyle]

Okay, given the BONKERS Endgame sales numbers, I expect Spider-Man Far From Home will top a billion quite easily. Endgame is going to be an event like no other. I think Episode 1 may have had this much hype, and Episode 7... but I've not known ANY superhero flick to ever have this kind of fervor surrounding it. Anything associated with it will reap the benefits. Spidey should get a decent aftershock from Endgame.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Okay, given the BONKERS Endgame sales numbers, I expect Spider-Man Far From Home will top a billion quite easily. Endgame is going to be an event like no other. I think Episode 1 may have had this much hype, and Episode 7... but I've not known ANY superhero flick to ever have this kind of fervor surrounding it. Anything associated with it will reap the benefits. Spidey should get a decent aftershock from Endgame.

Exactly my thoughts. It's the IRON MAN 3 case.

 

[shinlyle]

Exactly my thoughts. It's the IRON MAN 3 case.

ALL DAY LONG.

Spider-man Far From Home NOT hitting a billion will be the least likely of scenarios. No doubt, it won't have the resonance nor the stakes of Endgame, but the people riding the Endgame high will want to quicken themselves with some more MCU goodness...and Spidey will be their only fix. A billion is all but a lock.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

ALL DAY LONG.

Spider-man Far From Home NOT hitting a billion will be the least likely of scenarios. No doubt, it won't have the resonance nor the stakes of Endgame, but the people riding the Endgame high will want to quicken themselves with some more MCU goodness...and Spidey will be their only fix. A billion is all but a lock.

I agree with all this. EG is a completely different beast. I don't see a case where everyone who'll watch EG will be "meh" towards FFH. Maybe a small crowd. But I don't see a case where FFH makes LESS than HOCO because it's coming off EG.

 

[Iceman]

Okay, given the BONKERS Endgame sales numbers, I expect Spider-Man Far From Home will top a billion quite easily. Endgame is going to be an event like no other. I think Episode 1 may have had this much hype, and Episode 7... but I've not known ANY superhero flick to ever have this kind of fervor surrounding it. Anything associated with it will reap the benefits. Spidey should get a decent aftershock from Endgame.

It could see an IM3-Avengers style boost.

 

[Mr. Peanut]

In order to cross a billion, it seems like an MCU movie needs one of two things:

1. Robert Downey Jr.

2. A secondary audience brought in by appealing to a demographic that isn't usually catered to by superhero movies.

Far From Home is unlikely to have 1 and won't have 2, so I doubt it'll do much better than the first one.

 

[Iceman]

In order to cross a billion, it seems like an MCU movie needs one of two things:

1. Robert Downey Jr.

2. A secondary audience brought in by appealing to a demographic that isn't usually catered to by superhero movies.

Far From Home is unlikely to have 1 and won't have 2, so I doubt it'll do much better than the first one.

So what happened to Iron Man 2 barely increasing from Iron Man 1 and finishing nowhere near a billion? Seems like RDJ needs an Avengers boost to get the billion himself. IM2 barely increased from IM1 but suddenly IM3 almost doubled IM2’s worldwide gross. We are in a different MCU age to Phase 1 where a billion now is not the same as it was back then. Endgame is not going to be catering to any specific group and it’s likely record grosses aren’t going to be down to RDJ alone.

 

[Kuwolski]

I guess the box office future of the MCU will be disappointing then if RDJ hangs it up. Unless they make a bunch of 'cater' films.