Far From Home Spider-Man: Far From Home ---- Official Box Office Prediction Thread

[shinlyle]

Yeah I definitely think $1B+ is a lock for this. They are pretty much selling this as a sequel to Endgame which is only going to boost the hype even further. I am also starting to think that it will crack $400M+ domestic with the help of the early week release and what should be strong WOM.

It could still be somewhat front loaded like Homecoming. After Endgame its become even more apparent to me now that general audiences really love Holland's Spider-Man.

Since I have off for Independence Day, I will totally be there with family in tow!!

 

[Webfoot Hero]

This thing looks like a clear lock for $1 billion. Only thing that I think could stop it is poor WOM/reviews.

 

[Quentin Beck]

It'll definitely beat Homecoming due to the post-Endgame hype.

I personally voted $800 million but in my heart I hope it will do over $1 billion.

 

[ragingdemon155]

At first I was hesitant to jump on board the 1 billion team. However that’s changed .....

Endgame hype is going to help this greatly obviously and if it’s marketed as the epilogue which it is in a sense, that will also help. Plus the character of Spider-Man is hot right now. Hes coming off the Infinty war series, his own successful animated movie into the spider verse and a hugely successful video game as well .. all in all the stars are aligned for him to do really well and hit that 1 billion mark and more.

 

[NHawk19]

Riding the post End Game wave, this is going to be huge for Sony and they don't seem to be shy about letting people know it's connected to the larger MCU. If Capt Marvel can make over a billion with minimal connection to IFW & End Game this should be a lock.

I hope Sony realizes what they have in their partnership with Marvel and doesn't go back to thinking they know what they're doing on their own. Feige could make them a lot of money. Of course that also further delays Marvel from ever getting the rights back.

 

[All-Father]

Riding the post End Game wave, this is going to be huge for Sony and they don't seem to be shy about letting people know it's connected to the larger MCU. If Capt Marvel can make over a billion with minimal connection to IFW & End Game this should be a lock.

I hope Sony realizes what they have in their partnership with Marvel and doesn't go back to thinking they know what they're doing on their own. Feige could make them a lot of money. Of course that also further delays Marvel from ever getting the rights back.

This!

 

[Spider-Aziz]

This thing looks like a clear lock for $1 billion. Only thing that I think could stop it is poor WOM/reviews.

Bad word of mouth didn't stop Captain Marvel from being a billion dollar maker, and a good amount of reception that is not high praise for that came from more than the usual suspects.

This could still make less than a billion, I expect it to be the result of Endgame taking its toll on a lot of viewers.
I'm guessing though it has the chance to finally break Spider-Man 3's record as the highest grossing Spider-Man movie.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Bad word of mouth didn't stop Captain Marvel from being a billion dollar maker, and a good amount of reception that is not high praise for that came from more than the usual suspects.

This could still make less than a billion, I expect it to be the result of Endgame taking its toll on a lot of viewers.
I'm guessing though it has the chance to finally break Spider-Man 3's record as the highest grossing Spider-Man movie.

I wouldn't exactly say Captain Marvel had bad word of mouth. Some minor controversies and mixed reviews maybe but nothing at the level of like BvS and Suicide Squad. For the most part, there was pretty good WOM from moviegoers on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram, which accounts for some of the legs it has had at the box office.

As for FFH, I think it'd take some really negative reviews/WOM to derail it at the box office. The movie will likely be riding the momentum of Endgame and people are going to be curious as to what comes next in the MCU. Plus, Tom Holland has proven to be really popular.

 

[Kuwolski]

Any film that finishes with a 2.8 multiplier after opening to 153 m is doing well WOM wise.

I don't think FFH will improve much over the first film because it's in a tough spot theatrically. Still a major hit.

890 m

 

[Spider-Aziz]

I wouldn't exactly say Captain Marvel had bad word of mouth. Some minor controversies and mixed reviews maybe but nothing at the level of like BvS and Suicide Squad. For the most part, there was pretty good WOM from moviegoers on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram, which accounts for some of the legs it has had at the box office.

As for FFH, I think it'd take some really negative reviews/WOM to derail it at the box office. The movie will likely be riding the momentum of Endgame and people are going to be curious as to what comes next in the MCU. Plus, Tom Holland has proven to be really popular.

I heard that people cheered hard once he returned from dust state in many theaters, and I still have some reservations about his movie hitting a billion bucks.

Any film that finishes with a 2.8 multiplier after opening to 153 m is doing well WOM wise.

I don't think FFH will improve much over the first film because it's in a tough spot theatrically. Still a major hit.

890 m

My $900 million expectation is somewhat more generous than yours, but we mostly expect similar results.

 

[8ulk87]

Spider-Man (2002) - $821,7 mil. > 403,7 US + 418 OS.

Spider-Man 2 (2004) - $783,8 mil. > 373,6 US + 410,2 OS.

Spider-Man 3 (2007) - $890,9 mil. > 336,5 US + 554,3 OS.

TASM1 (2012) - $757,9 mil. > 262 US + 495,9 OS (48,8 China).

TASM2 (2014) - $709 mil. > 202,9 US + 506,1 OS (94,4 China).

Spider-Man HC (2017) - $880,2 mil. > 334,2 US (117 o.w.) + 546 OS (116,3 China).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An average of $807,3 mil WW. OS markets especially average $488,4 mil.

$500 mil from OS is a safe bet considering China.
Realistically it will probably be closer to $550-600 mil.

$850-1050 mil is the most probable range.

My prediction.

US ow $125 mil , US total $350 mil.
OS total $575 mil (China $175 mil).
WW total $925 mil.

Boxofficepro.com early tracking says:
$90-120 mil US opening weekend for a $405 mil US total.

 

[Mandon Knight]

I think the popularity of Mysterio and the fact they managed to snare JG into the role will push this $1BN bound.

 

[Spider-Aziz]

Spider-Man (2002) - $821,7 mil. > 403,7 US + 418 OS.

Spider-Man 2 (2004) - $783,8 mil. > 373,6 US + 410,2 OS.

Spider-Man 3 (2007) - $890,9 mil. > 336,5 US + 554,3 OS.

TASM1 (2012) - $757,9 mil. > 262 US + 495,9 OS (48,8 China).

TASM2 (2014) - $709 mil. > 202,9 US + 506,1 OS (94,4 China).

Spider-Man HC (2017) - $880,2 mil. > 334,2 US (117 o.w.) + 546 OS (116,3 China).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An average of $807,3 mil WW. OS markets especially average $488,4 mil

It breaks my heart how big a drop this has been, the biggest B.O drop with $133 million.

 

[Kuwolski]

It breaks my heart how big a drop this has been, the biggest B.O drop with $133 million.

Well the gain from TASM 2 to Homecoming was 171 m, so there's that.

 

[Spider-Aziz]

Well the gain from TASM 2 to Homecoming was 171 m, so there's that.

That's a great step up.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Source - Box Office Pro

With the latest trailer making it clear that Spider-Man: Far From Home will be a must-see movie in how the Marvel Cinematic Universe evolves moving into Phase 4, it probably wont surprise you to learn that it looks set to dominate the July 4th holiday period.

Apparently, the sequel is currently eyeing a $90 million - $120 million haul for its opening weekend and as much as $190 million - $230 million over this six-day period.


The new Spider-Man: Far From Home trailer (which came with a spoiler warning from star Tom Holland) racked up a massive 135 million trailer views during its first day of release, so interest is clearly high. While this opening won't mark a franchise high, it is on par with the previous instalment and could go higher depending on a number of factors.

Long-range tracking is always hit and miss but this bodes well for the movie and it will be interesting seeing how things pan out over the coming weeks as the marketing campaign heats up.

 

[Shuri]

Predicting a billion. 350 domestic and 650 international. This movie has everything it needs to make a billion. It only falls short if the movie is bad. If it's really good, 1.1 is doable.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Predicting a billion. 350 domestic and 650 international. This movie has everything it needs to make a billion. It only falls short if the movie is bad. If it's really good, 1.1 is doable.

How about near-weeks competition though

 

[Shuri]

How about near-weeks competition though

It's definitely going to affect it, but not too much. Most blockbusters make most of their money in the first 2 weeks, which Far from home will have.

 

[UltimateWebhead]

IM3 came on the heels of the first Avengers movie and it did over a billion.

I can see the same happening with FFH. It's the first movie to come after the emotional punch of Endgame. Even though it was a satisfying conclusion, knowing there's more to come, I think fans, the GA, want to get a taste of what's in store. Spider-Man is already a big draw and if the movie gets solid reviews with wom, a billion is doable imo.

 

[shinlyle]

‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’ is the most anticipated summer blockbuster

A billion is happening, folks.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

Ooh... I don't know if I believe it will hit a billy.

My prediction...
Domestic: $440m
WW: $960m

Bigger than the rest of the Spidey franchise for sure. Domestically and WW. But I don't see the billy. I'll gladly eat my words tho.

 

[Rice Eater]

I'm definitely drinking the FFH Kool aid lol. I think it will be huge, even bigger than Captain Marvel. I think it will over perform by riding the momentum built by EG and being a prologue of sorts to it. There is also the fact that the Spiderman brand itself has been on a hot streak. Homecoming was a great bounce back after ASM2, Tom Holland's version of Spidey is universally loved, Spiderverse is an award winning movie, and the Spiderman PS4 game was critically acclaimed and sold tons of copies.

With all that said I think
130 OW, 230 opening week(opens on Tuesday)
450 domestic
300 China
550 Rest of world
1.3+ billion WW

 

[SomeOldGuy]

China tracking...

 

[TheGuy]

I think this will have a ceiling around CW and IM3 numbers.