Far From Home Spider-Man: Far From Home ---- Official Box Office Prediction Thread

What do you think the Spider-Man: Homecoming sequel's chances are at the 2019 summer box office?

  • Above 1 billion WW

    Votes: 64 69.6%
  • 900 million + WW

    Votes: 16 17.4%
  • 800 million + WW

    Votes: 10 10.9%
  • 700 million + WW

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • 600 million + WW

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • less than 600 million WW

    Votes: 1 1.1%

  • Total voters
    92
  • Poll closed .
Right, they've definitely found a groove. Black Widow is the biggest question mark for me. She has no real "powers", is getting a movie about 5 years too late, and we've seen a couple of "female kicking ass" movies the last couple of years (Atomic Blonde, Red Sparrow). I honestly have no idea how it will do.

Agreed. I'll, of course, go see it and I suspect a lot of others will also. Marvel has really built up a lot of trust over the years and I think they'll need at least a couple of duds in a row to start breaking that down. I doubt BW will be a stinker and I think Marvel will go chugging along their merry way.
 
Agreed. I'll, of course, go see it and I suspect a lot of others will also. Marvel has really built up a lot of trust over the years and I think they'll need at least a couple of duds in a row to start breaking that down. I doubt BW will be a stinker and I think Marvel will go chugging along their merry way.

Yeah I’m curious what the budget is. I can’t see it being huge compared to other stand alone hero movies. Of course there will be people who will call it a failure if it doesn’t make $800M.
 
Yeah I’m curious what the budget is. I can’t see it being huge compared to other stand alone hero movies. Of course there will be people who will call it a failure if it doesn’t make $800M.

A movie like BW could be done for Ant-Man money or even a lot less. I just have no idea where they would go with a movie like this. Will they even be using much in the way of special effects? I think it would be really cool to see a character, plot driven Marvel movie (not that there aren't strong characterizations and very decent plots in many Marvel movies) that focuses on what's going on psychologically to an individual and their corresponding character arc. I'm not sure that would go over as well with the GA as other Marvel movies, but, if done right, it could certainly draw people in.

Yeah....a movie doesn't have to make 600+M to be successful, but I guess that's what people expect these days from Marvel.
 
Good thing about Black Widow is it can make considerably less and still be a success. I think it will do better than some are anticipating not like a billion dollars but I wouldn't be shocked at 700M
 
Good thing about Black Widow is it can make considerably less and still be a success. I think it will do better than some are anticipating not like a billion dollars but I wouldn't be shocked at 700M

I wouldn't be either.I thought CM would do well if it hit 800-900M. I was pleasantly surprised. I think the Marvel name is strong enough to hit about 700M no matter what they do....except maybe Inhumans LOL.

I could see BW being relatively inexpensive even compared to some lower budget movies (like Ant-Man) and therefore making some pretty good money.
 
So one bad thing is it second weekend it os estimates were 3 million higher then it ended at. Still a great second weekend hold though. Movie should hit 300 on friday and ww 900 either friday or thursday depending on its os hold to be the first spiderman movie to reach 900. By end of sunday should be around 950.
 
It will be interesting to see what impact The Lion King has on this next weekend. I think it will be significant, but still expect a week total of 110 - 120 m by Sunday evening.
 
Lion King not looking as imposing as it did a few weeks ago on paper. But I'd imagine it will still open big.
 
I remember when some were saying it would be the second highest grossing film of the year and I'm not so sure about that anymore.
 
So one bad thing is it second weekend it os estimates were 3 million higher then it ended at. Still a great second weekend hold though. Movie should hit 300 on friday and ww 900 either friday or thursday depending on its os hold to be the first spiderman movie to reach 900. By end of sunday should be around 950.
1 bill just around the corner too. :cwink:
 
I remember when some were saying it would be the second highest grossing film of the year and I'm not so sure about that anymore.

Lion king? I think it will be i see around 2 billion. Its reviews are worse then i expected but its reviews are ok over all not bad and i think it is critic prof type of movie.
 
I love the example of Westerns that is always thrown out there. A genre that is totally focused on a particular historical setting. :D:

The analogy fails for even more than just the narrowly specific setting. Its important to note about the fall of the Western. . .

1. A large part of its disappearance had nothing to do with popularity, but with the rising cost of filming Westerns. Hollywood had, for decades, relied on a preexisting supply of horse trainers, stage cowboys, and other skilled workers who arose from the prior "western show" business ( as well as from the actual cowboy business ). The fact that there were so many such people meant costs were low. When time and demographics kicked ( ie, the workers retired or died ), it became more expensive to film Westerns. And what a coincident, right around that time is when Westerns stopped showing up so much!

2. Even assuming that there are relevant comparisons. . . Westerns were a dominant part of popular culture for at least 40 years. Superheroes aren't even halfway there.
 
Lion king? I think it will be i see around 2 billion. Its reviews are worse then i expected but its reviews are ok over all not bad and i think it is critic prof type of movie.
Really? That would surprise me, but I'm not following TLK closely.....understand that I had to watch the original and Shrek with my daughter until I wanted to go blind and deaf.....
 
The analogy fails for even more than just the narrowly specific setting. Its important to note about the fall of the Western. . .

1. A large part of its disappearance had nothing to do with popularity, but with the rising cost of filming Westerns. Hollywood had, for decades, relied on a preexisting supply of horse trainers, stage cowboys, and other skilled workers who arose from the prior "western show" business ( as well as from the actual cowboy business ). The fact that there were so many such people meant costs were low. When time and demographics kicked ( ie, the workers retired or died ), it became more expensive to film Westerns. And what a coincident, right around that time is when Westerns stopped showing up so much!

2. Even assuming that there are relevant comparisons. . . Westerns were a dominant part of popular culture for at least 40 years. Superheroes aren't even halfway there.

Also, I feel nostalgia played a big part. People who were kids during the late period days of the old West (the Butch and Sundance era) would have been in their 70s in the 1970s, which was also the time when the genre started fading. Simply put, the people who actually lived during that time started dying off.
 
Really? That would surprise me, but I'm not following TLK closely.....understand that I had to watch the original and Shrek with my daughter until I wanted to go blind and deaf.....

I cant wait for lion king and i think the nestolga for its going to be big. Aladien is at aroun 950 million and might make it to a billion and lion king is much more popular. Aladien got rt score in the 50s its self. If aladien can make around a billion i dont see why lion king cant do at least 1.5 billion. You are going to have all the grown ups who were kids when lk came out wanting to see it and now have kids who want to see it/who want to take there kids to see it.Spiderman is doing just fine though. So far ita looking like it is having better legs then hc did.Hc made like 170 million more ww than amazing spiderman 2 and its looking like far from home is going to make 300 million more or so then hc. So spiderman is on its way up. Spiderman 3 and amazing spiderman 1 and 2 hurt spidermans boxoffice for even hc. Hc got the trust of people back.
 
A movie like BW could be done for Ant-Man money or even a lot less. I just have no idea where they would go with a movie like this. Will they even be using much in the way of special effects? I think it would be really cool to see a character, plot driven Marvel movie (not that there aren't strong characterizations and very decent plots in many Marvel movies) that focuses on what's going on psychologically to an individual and their corresponding character arc. I'm not sure that would go over as well with the GA as other Marvel movies, but, if done right, it could certainly draw people in.

Yeah....a movie doesn't have to make 600+M to be successful, but I guess that's what people expect these days from Marvel.

Yeah i dont know what to expect from bw but budget compared to boxoffice is what is important to how successful a movie is or isnt. Ant man didnt make 600+ but its budget was also a good like 70 million or so lower then a lot of big action movies.
 
"Superhero Fatigue" is what it has always been: a myth. Its only existed as either a longed-for dream by critics who hate popular culture, or a convenient excuse for studios who want to explain why their bad movie is not actually bad.

Yeah i dont think its just superhero fatigue that is a myth. I think franchise fatigue its self is also nothing but a myth. Both video games and movie make a lot of sequel becuase they have a bulit in audience and they wouldnt keep making so many sequels and such if people really got tired of it. It all comes down to how good the product is. If you even look at franchise and movies making less money a lot of times there is reason for it such has being a reboot something that turns people away even if the movie ends up being good. Or the movie is a worse movie then then the one before. I would say not to offten are you going to see a big drop of in the next movie in a franchise if they are similare quality and not a reboot
 
So Usa it should be around 320 by the end of the weekend. By the next weekend the 4th weekend it should be very close to hc.
 
The analogy fails for even more than just the narrowly specific setting. Its important to note about the fall of the Western. . .

1. A large part of its disappearance had nothing to do with popularity, but with the rising cost of filming Westerns. Hollywood had, for decades, relied on a preexisting supply of horse trainers, stage cowboys, and other skilled workers who arose from the prior "western show" business ( as well as from the actual cowboy business ). The fact that there were so many such people meant costs were low. When time and demographics kicked ( ie, the workers retired or died ), it became more expensive to film Westerns. And what a coincident, right around that time is when Westerns stopped showing up so much!

2. Even assuming that there are relevant comparisons. . . Westerns were a dominant part of popular culture for at least 40 years. Superheroes aren't even halfway there.
Oh, very interesting. Thanks for that.
 
So Usa it should be around 320 by the end of the weekend. By the next weekend the 4th weekend it should be very close to hc.
Yep, all while blowing HC away overseas.
 
So the MCU, alone, made 4.75B WW this year so far. FFH surely has another 250M in the tank so we will be looking at 5B+ in a few weeks.
That’s more than what Warner Bros, Universal and 20th Century Fox did COMBINED on the domestic market last year. And the trick is thar those 3 studios released 71 movies in 2018.

Globally that’s a bigger overall gross than Universal’s 21 movies released in 2018. And it’s roughly on par with what 20th Century Fox and Paramount did combined last year.

Now I know FFH’s numbers will be counted towards Sony/Columbia but I don’t think the scenario would have played any differently if Marvel released another of their properties instead.
The numbers are getting crazier. I wonder what the MCU will be doing in 10 years.
 
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