Star Trek into Darkness Box Office Prediction Thread

[jmc]

Heads are going to roll tomorrow.

But who falls on the sword? Not Abrams, he jumped ship months ago. Most likely those writers. I expect Paramount to clean house and replace them for Star Trek 3.

Perhaps Paramount should look at the appeal of the Star Trek franchise before they start telling people to clear out their desks. This film is good, the market just isn't there for it to be this massive blockbuster, and they should grow up and accept that no matter how much they try Trek is only ever going to be a niche franchise.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Heads are going to roll tomorrow.

But who falls on the sword? Not Abrams, he jumped ship months ago. Most likely those writers. I expect Paramount to clean house and replace them for Star Trek 3.

If Abrams wants to play, I think they will let him play. These numbers are disappointing, but are we expecting anything better from someone other then Nolan or Whedon suddenly deciding to do ST? Heck I don't even think Whedon could pull off better.

But I honestly don't know why so many thought this was going to have a huge jump. Even Showtime thought this was going to jump a lot. It is still Star Trek.

 

[jmc]

I think because recent trend has been produce a solid first film/origin movie for a moderate return, follow it up with an equal or better movie and produce a greater return. I fell into that trap. It should have dawned on me when my cinema was barely half full on opening night that the audience for Trek isn't huge.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Star Trek did $260M domestic. That's huge.

They had every reason to think this could reach critical mass on the second movie, a la Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, The Dark Knight and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think because recent trend has been produce a solid first film/origin movie for a moderate return, follow it up with an equal or better movie and produce a greater return. I fell into that trap. It should have dawned on me when my cinema was barely half full on opening night that the audience for Trek isn't huge.

I usually hit the first opening day showing. My showing was less then half full and me and my brother were the only ones under 40. It was weird in general though. Can't remember the last time a Friday morning where my theater was that empty.

Star Trek did $260M domestic. That's huge.

They had every reason to think this could reach critical mass on the second movie, a la Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, The Dark Knight and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.

I honestly can't remember, but did any of those follow two weeks after a top 10 all timer? Did they open in mid-May 4 years after the original?

 

[jmc]

Star Trek did $260M domestic. That's huge.

They had every reason to think this could reach critical mass on the second movie, a la Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, The Dark Knight and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.

Of course they had every reason to believe it would, but now it hasn't in spite of the films reviews and reaction by fans. It's no-ones fault, it's just there isn't as big a market for Trek as they'd like to think, as we all thought there would be.

 

[DKDetective]

Heads are going to roll tomorrow.

But who falls on the sword? Not Abrams, he jumped ship months ago. Most likely those writers. I expect Paramount to clean house and replace them for Star Trek 3.

Nothing would make me happier. If STID is not a massive runaway success, maybe Paramount won't be slavishly committed to the Abrams Trek formula. I think what I hated most about STID when I came out of the theatre opening day was the idea that it was projected to be a huge success and I would possibly never again see a new Trek movie I would really enjoy.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Heads are going to roll tomorrow.

But who falls on the sword? Not Abrams, he jumped ship months ago. Most likely those writers. I expect Paramount to clean house and replace them for Star Trek 3.

Huh? It's not the writers fault, look at the critic reception so far, the movie is well received. It's producers and execs that should get fired. That said, considering this is not a flop, I doubt heads are going to role. This should still end up doing around $500m, which will still make it the highest grossing Star Trek film ever. I think people are overreacting and blowing this out of proportion because it doesn't meet their lofty expectations.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Nothing would make me happier. If STID is not a massive runaway success, maybe Paramount won't be slavishly committed to the Abrams Trek formula. I think what I hated most about STID when I came out of the theatre opening day was the idea that it was projected to be a huge success and I would possibly never again see a new Trek movie I would really enjoy.

What would they go to? The old trek films that made a quarter the box office of the abrams one's?

Paramount had no intention to contiue the trek series as they were until they came upon JJ and his reboot ideas. We are not going to see another TNG type film regardless of how well STID does.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Yeah well DKD you may be happy this wasn't an uber success but how about no Star Trek films ever again after the third comes out and still isn't a blockbuster success? Will you still be happy then?

 

[DKDetective]

What would they go to? The old trek films that made a quarter the box office of the abrams one's?

Paramount had no intention to contiue the trek series as they were until they came upon JJ and his reboot ideas. We are not going to see another TNG type film regardless of how well STID does.

Never said I wanted another TNG-style film. In my opinion, most of the Trek films have actually failed to translate the greatness of the TV shows. I just want something new and unique with some depth to it. Even if they stick to the Abrams formula, anyone other than Kurtzman, Orci, and Lindelof would be a massive improvement.

EDIT:

Yeah well DKD you may be happy this wasn't an uber success but how about no Star Trek films ever again after the third comes out and still isn't a blockbuster success? Will you still be happy then?

Yeah, I would. I would rather get no more Star Trek than have someone continue to make movies using the Star Trek name that fail to capture the spirit of what I believe Star Trek is about. I have 3 excellent TV series and a handful of good movies, I don't need more Trek content.

 

[KangConquers]

I loved this film, and I'm actually legitimately heartbroken over this performance.

 

[Frodo]

I usually hit the first opening day showing. My showing was less then half full and me and my brother were the only ones under 40. It was weird in general though. Can't remember the last time a Friday morning where my theater was that empty.

My showing wasn't as packed as I thought it would be either come to think of it.

 

[danoyse]

I usually hit the first opening day showing. My showing was less then half full and me and my brother were the only ones under 40. It was weird in general though. Can't remember the last time a Friday morning where my theater was that empty.

I was at the 1pm show when it opened on Thursday, and we had the same type of audience. Much older crowd. Although, far livelier than the much younger crowd we had in that same theater two weeks earlier for Iron Man 3's opening...so, go old people!

I remember seeing a group of kids yelling "Star Trek is for nerds!!!", at any other kid they saw walking into a theater showing the 2009 movie, so I guess that one didn't win all the younger ones over.

 

[danoyse]

I loved this film, and I'm actually legitimately heartbroken over this performance.

Don't be. In almost 50 years, Star Trek has survived far worse things than a disappointing opening weekend. It will survive this too.

 

[Octoberist]

I was at the 1pm show when it opened on Thursday, and we had the same type of audience. Much older crowd. Although, far livelier than the much younger crowd we had in that same theater two weeks earlier for Iron Man 3's opening...so, go old people!

I remember seeing a group of kids yelling "Star Trek is for nerds!!!", at any other kid they saw walking into a theater showing the 2009 movie, so I guess that one didn't win all the younger ones over.

There's a stigma with Star Trek that's hard to get rid of. Man of Steel will have to fight off the 'Superman is too powerful/boring/boyscout' clicques come June. Luckily Superman is tied to comic books so that will always bring in a younger crowd. But in some ways, Superman and Star Trek are cut from the same cloth: misunderstood despite it's popularity around the world.

The fact that Star Wars is coming back doesn't help Star Trek 3, even though they're not competing. Star Wars will always ben embraced, even blindly, while Star Trek will be continue to be misunderstood by a few, no matter how 'cool' it gets.

 

[Octoberist]

Heads are going to roll tomorrow.

But who falls on the sword? Not Abrams, he jumped ship months ago. Most likely those writers. I expect Paramount to clean house and replace them for Star Trek 3.

They did a great job marketing towards the international market but failed to market the film domestically.

 

[danoyse]

There's a stigma with Star Trek that's hard to get rid of. Man of Steel will have to fight off the 'Superman is too powerful/boring/boyscout' clicques come June. Luckily Superman is tied to comic books so that will always bring in a younger crowd.

There definitely is, and always has been. I remember seeing a sold-out movie (I think it was Pet Sematary), where they show trailers for Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade and Star Trek V. The crowd went wild for the Indiana Jones trailer, but only about a third cheered on the Star Trek V trailer. And this was the movie after Voyage Home, which had agruably been the most mainstream hit of the series.

 

[DKDetective]

How do we know that the underperformance is even related to the stigma of the Star Trek brand? Have people even considered that it might a result of the generic action movie, terrorist villain marketing of the film? My girlfriend is not at all a Trek fan or much of a nerd and loved Star Trek 09, but refuses to go see STID based on the trailers and tv spots because they look generically lame and dark and repetitive of films like TDK and Skyfall.

 

[Octoberist]

There definitely is, and always has been. I remember seeing a sold-out movie (I think it was Pet Sematary), where they show trailers for Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade and Star Trek V. The crowd went wild for the Indiana Jones trailer, but only about a third cheered on the Star Trek V trailer. And this was the movie after Voyage Home, which had agruably been the most mainstream hit of the series.

That will never go away. Some people are just ignorant like that. Even my friend who is into geek culture admits that she doesn't like Trek but hasn't seen any of the films/TV shows either. But she openly will embrace Star Wars and Doctor Who.

She thinks of Star Trek as a relic. I know that's not the best attitude to have, but there are many people who think like that.

 

[Octoberist]

How do we know that the underperformance is even related to the stigma of the Star Trek brand? Have people even considered that it might a result of the generic action movie, terrorist villain marketing of the film? My girlfriend is not at all a Trek fan or much of a nerd and loved Star Trek 09, but refuses to go see STID based on the trailers and tv spots because they look generically lame and dark and repetitive of films like TDK and Skyfall.

I don't know if that matters or not. What you're talking about is not common knowledge to the folks who are passive to that sort information. I'm painting in broad, broad strokes here I know. There are exceptions like with your GF of course, but generally speaking, I just think it's the release date that's the problem.

Now I admited that the marketing wasn't good, but I don't think it's due to dark themes or terrorist acts. They didn't capture the awe that the trailers of the first film had.

EDIT: What ever point I have, I just contradicted myself, so I give up!!!

 

[danoyse]

That will never go away. Some people are just ignorant like that. Even my friend who is into geek culture admits that she doesn't like Trek but hasn't seen any of the films/TV shows either. But she openly will embrace Star Wars and Doctor Who.

She thinks of Star Trek as a relic. I know that's not the best attitude to have, but there are many people who think like that.

I have friends love Doctor Who, but won't touch Star Trek or Star Wars.

Star Trek had always had this, "Oh, you're that kind of a nerd," stigma about. Even after the 2009 movie.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I was at the 1pm show when it opened on Thursday, and we had the same type of audience. Much older crowd. Although, far livelier than the much younger crowd we had in that same theater two weeks earlier for Iron Man 3's opening...so, go old people!

I remember seeing a group of kids yelling "Star Trek is for nerds!!!", at any other kid they saw walking into a theater showing the 2009 movie, so I guess that one didn't win all the younger ones over.

Therer was this older woman and her husband that were sitting right in front of us. She was so into, but in a very non-intrusive way. She gasped and cheered, but she didn't feel the need to have a conversation with her husband about the film as the film was rolling. It was the first time in ages that I saw something the first weekend and didn't feel the end to strangle someone for talking all over the film or busting out their cellphones. It was great.

And yeah, it doesn't seem Trek has caught on with the much younger crowd. Which is sad, because these films are so open and inviting for all imo. Fans or newcomers of all ages.

 

[Octoberist]

I have friends love Doctor Who, but won't touch Star Trek or Star Wars.

Star Trek had always had this, "Oh, you're that kind of a nerd," stigma about. Even after the 2009 movie.

That's just how it is.

And I don't know how Doctor Who did it, but it reinvented itself so well, that it was able to capture the imagination of the world in a short few years. If Star Trek can ever do that once it can clear its TV rights issues, that will save Star Trek in the long run, me thinks.

Right now we have the movies though, and I don't know if that's enough to keep it alive.

 

[DKDetective]

I don't know if that matters or not. What you're talking about is not common knowledge to the folks who are passive to that sort information. I'm painting in broad, broad strokes here I know. There are exceptions like with your GF of course, but generally speaking, I just think it's the release date that's the problem.

I dunno about that. Star Trek 09 seemed to capture the love of the general audience, at least domestically. I knew many people who harboured the dismissive opinions of Trek you mentioned who were converted by Star Trek 09 and its marketing. It looked different and new and cool with great action and visuals. The people you are talking about are way too passionate to have made much effect on STID's box office numbers. The general audience doesn't care about Trek. To call Trek a "relic" or to embrace things like Doctor Who means that you are a nerd who cares and has an opinion. Indifference is the true opinion of the general audience. All they care about is if the commercials look good and what others are saying who have seen it.