Star Trek into Darkness Box Office Prediction Thread

[DarthSkywalker]

I have friends love Doctor Who, but won't touch Star Trek or Star Wars.

Star Trek had always had this, "Oh, you're that kind of a nerd," stigma about. Even after the 2009 movie.

I was a superheroes and Star Wars kid growing up. I saw some Trek and Doctor Who from time to time, but never really got that into to. It was the 2005 return of Who and the 2009 Star Trek film that made me a fan of each. Because of them I actually sat down and watched the older material in context.

 

[Octoberist]

Therer was this older woman and her husband that were sitting right in front of us. She was so into, but in a very non-intrusive way. She gasped and cheered, but she didn't feel the need to have a conversation with her husband about the film as the film was rolling. It was the first time in ages that I saw something the first weekend and didn't feel the end to strangle someone for talking all over the film or busting out their cellphones. It was great.

And yeah, it doesn't seem Trek has caught on with the much younger crowd. Which is sad, because these films are so open and inviting for all imo. Fans or newcomers of all ages.

People see ST as a relic. Even I, who now apprichate Star Trek, it can never steal my love for Star Wars. I know they're different, but Star Wars sparked something in the mind impressable young Octoberist, where as 'Star Trek' I thought of as old people talking in space. Which is worst and BEST thing about Star Trek, actually.

But that image of what I had of Star Trek still clings to me, even though NOW as a young adult I'm liking and respecting the franchise like no other.

 

[jmc]

How do we know that the underperformance is even related to the stigma of the Star Trek brand? Have people even considered that it might a result of the generic action movie, terrorist villain marketing of the film? My girlfriend is not at all a Trek fan or much of a nerd and loved Star Trek 09, but refuses to go see STID based on the trailers and tv spots because they look generically lame and dark and repetitive of films like TDK and Skyfall.

Man, your hatred of this film really shines through in your posts.

 

[danoyse]

That's just how it is.

And I don't know how Doctor Who did it, but it reinvented itself so well, that it was able to capture the imagination of the world in a short few years. If Star Trek can ever do that once it can clear its TV rights issues, that will save Star Trek in the long run, me thinks.

Right now we have the movies though, and I don't know if that's enough to keep it alive.

I was in London a few years ago, and I noticed how the Doctor Who toys were as prominent as Star Wars or Transformers toys. We haven't hit that point yet, but it is just getting bigger and bigger here now too. It's amazing.

But Star Trek exists mostly now as punchline on The Big Bang Theory...again, even after the 2009 film.

 

[Octoberist]

And I'll be honest, my bias gets the best of me, because when Star Trek into Darkness got released, my devilish side told me "Finally JJ can focus on Star WARS!" I was trolling myself!

 

[Octoberist]

I was in London a few years ago, and I noticed how the Doctor Who toys were as prominent as Star Wars or Transformers toys. We haven't hit that point yet, but it is just getting bigger and bigger here now too. It's amazing.

But Star Trek exists mostly now as punchline on The Big Bang Theory...again, even after the 2009 film.

And where is the Star Trek action figures? I know there's the Lego knockoffs (Krego?) but that's about it! Even then, I can't see a kid wanting to buy a 'Kirk' figure when there's Boba Fett and Bumblebee next to him!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

People see ST as a relic. Even I, who now apprichate Star Trek, it can never steal my love for Star Wars. I know they're different, but Star Wars sparked something in the mind impressable young Octoberist, where as 'Star Trek' I thought of as old people talking in space. Which is worst and BEST thing about Star Trek, actually.

I am right there with you on Star Wars. Star Wars is my first love. I spent days of my youth in front of the television watching the OT, while I played with my Star Wars action figures and legos. Had the PJs, birthday cakes, EU books and comics, etcs. Luke Skywalker and Superman were my heroes.

But it just seems ridiculous that Nu Star Trek could have that stigma when you see any of bit of footage from these films. They are more SW then the SW prequels.

 

[jmc]

There is a real lack of reboot merchandise. I've been looking for a model of the new Enterprise and I can't find anything. Everything related to Trek merch is from the old era of Original Series/Movies and TNG. Where's the effort to embrace the new?

 

[Warhammer]

I believe that people who are saying the marketing as well as the 4 year gap is the reason why this film is underperforming have a sound argument. Star Trek exceeded expectations in 2009. It achieved what Paramount, Abrams, Orci, Kurtzman, and Lindelof wanted; a Trek film that would be accessible to the masses. The film's marketing campaign was spectacular. The teasers and trailers released were fantastic. At the box office, it made more than people expected. The DVD/rental sales were damn good.

For this film, Abrams kept bulls***tin' and let the momentum from 2009 fade away. The marketing wasn't too good at all. People who are comparing Abrams's secrecy to Nolan's are forgetting a few things. First off, Nolan is Nolan. We all know The Dark Knight made over a billion at the box office without 3D to boost the revenue. If people thought that was a fluke, look at the monster numbers that Inception did. And about the 4 year gap, The Dark Knight Rises was a success because it is the winning formula of Batman + Nolan. The momentum also wasn't going to die because the prequel grossed over a billion and was a critical darling. For Skyfall, it was the insane marketing campaign (one example being it's promotion during the Olympics) that helped it gross over a billion.

Paramount and Abrams failed to capitalize on the hype that Star Trek (2009) generated. They also failed to market this film well. Abrams doesn't have the pull of Nolan and even if he did, the Batman films at least heavily marketed their films and highlighted the villain to appeal to the audience. It's unfortunate too. This film could have defeated the stigma that Star Trek has. It is the same stigma now that Batman Begins had to overcome in 2005. It performed modestly and generated enough hype for The Dark Knight to arrive and destroy the stigma.

 

[Octoberist]

I'm with you JMC.

There's no real merchandice to drive up the sales, and bring in the younger crowd. Sure there's collectables but that's for the built-in crowd: the nerd. I haven't seen any Nu-Star Trek figures, blankets, or PJs.

I think it's due to the rights issues between CBS and Paramount right?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Man, your hatred of this film really shines through in your posts.

Thinly-veiled is what I would go with.

I was in London a few years ago, and I noticed how the Doctor Who toys were as prominent as Star Wars or Transformers toys. We haven't hit that point yet, but it is just getting bigger and bigger here now too. It's amazing.

But Star Trek exists mostly now as punchline on The Big Bang Theory...again, even after the 2009 film.

Two things about Who. They made the Doctor "attractive" starring with Tennant, and it has come along at the time when British Television has a great rep around the world.

It also doesn't hurt that he shows success is a great source of British pride.

 

[danoyse]

I was a superheroes and Star Wars kid growing up. I saw some Trek and Doctor Who from time to time, but never really got that into to. It was the 2005 return of Who and the 2009 Star Trek film that made me a fan of each. Because of them I actually sat down and watched the older material in context.

People see ST as a relic. Even I, who now apprichate Star Trek, it can never steal my love for Star Wars. I know they're different, but Star Wars sparked something in the mind impressable young Octoberist, where as 'Star Trek' I thought of as old people talking in space. Which is worst and BEST thing about Star Trek, actually.

But that image of what I had of Star Trek still clings to me, even though NOW as a young adult I'm liking and respecting the franchise like no other.

That was me too. I was 3 when Star Wars first came out, so that was my favorite (and still is). It was mid-80s when I got into Star Trek, but coming into it as a Star Wars fan first had me never minding when they threw in more action and humor.

And I got into it because my dad liked it. He watched the original series when it first aired, and I watched it off reruns that aired at midnight. Now those reruns are 30 years ago, and you have to go an extra generation back to find those original fans.

 

[jmc]

I believe that people who are saying the marketing as well as the 4 year gap is the reason why this film is underperforming have a sound argument. Star Trek exceeded expectations in 2009. It achieved what Paramount, Abrams, Orci, Kurtzman, and Lindelof wanted; a Trek film that would be accessible to the masses. The film's marketing campaign was spectacular. The teasers and trailers released were fantastic. At the box office, it made more than people expected. The DVD/rental sales were damn good.

For this film, Abrams kept bulls***tin' and let the momentum from 2009 fade away. The marketing wasn't too good at all. People who are comparing Abrams's secrecy to Nolan's are forgetting a few things. First off, Nolan is Nolan. We all know The Dark Knight made over a billion at the box office without 3D to boost the revenue. If people thought that was a fluke, look at the monster numbers that Inception did. And about the 4 year gap, The Dark Knight Rises was a success because it is the winning formula of Batman + Nolan. The momentum also wasn't going to die because the prequel grossed over a billion and was a critical darling. For Skyfall, it was the insane marketing campaign (one example being it's promotion during the Olympics) that helped it gross over a billion.

Paramount and Abrams failed to capitalize on the hype that Star Trek (2009) generated. They also failed to market this film well. Abrams doesn't have the pull of Nolan and even if he did, the Batman films at least heavily marketed their films and highlighted the villain to appeal to the audience.

You're comparing apples with oranges. Bond and Batman have a far broader appeal in general. ST 09 may in retrospect be a fluke.

 

[Octoberist]

Right again JMC.

 

[Octoberist]

Thinly-veiled is what I would go with.


Two things about Who. They made the Doctor "attractive" starring with Tennant, and it has come along at the time when British Television has a great rep around the world.

It also doesn't hurt that he shows success is a great source of British pride.

Well I hope that JJ casts Tennant as Chewie's son in Episode 7.

 

[jmc]

I'm with you JMC.

There's no real merchandice to drive up the sales, and bring in the younger crowd. Sure there's collectables but that's for the built-in crowd: the nerd. I haven't seen any Nu-Star Trek figures, blankets, or PJs.

I think it's due to the rights issues between CBS and Paramount right?

Who knows, all I know is the merchandise it still being tailored to the old crowd. I've wanted a model of the redesigned Enterprise but I for the life of me cannot find one. Abrams has tried to give Trek the kick up the backside it's so desperately needed, yet the bosses higher up haven't tried to capitalize on it, they're relying on the old stuff. Frankly, Paramount have no-one to blame but themselves for the lackluster performance of an otherwise great movie, they haven't done anything to keep the new Trek in mind. You can't just rely on the sequel to keep people's interest, you've got explore other avenues in the interim.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There is a real lack of reboot merchandise. I've been looking for a model of the new Enterprise and I can't find anything. Everything related to Trek merch is from the old era of Original Series/Movies and TNG. Where's the effort to embrace the new?

Apparently last time the merchandise didn't really sell, so they have cut back to the bare-bones. Don't even think there is going to be figures.

That was me too. I was 3 when Star Wars first came out, so that was my favorite (and still is). It was mid-80s when I got into Star Trek, but coming into it as a Star Wars fan first had me never minding when they threw in more action and humor.

And I got into it because my dad liked it. He watched the original series when it first aired, and I watched it off reruns that aired at midnight. Now those reruns are 30 years ago, and you have to go an extra generation back to find those original fans.

I am right there with you and it is actually a funny point of contention with a lot of fans of both Star Trek and Dr Who before the "semi-reboots". Both have clearly been influenced by Star Wars on their returns, and this for some reason really grates those fans. Apparently SW is code for "dumb everything down".

 

[danoyse]

And where is the Star Trek action figures? I know there's the Lego knockoffs (Krego?) but that's about it! Even then, I can't see a kid wanting to buy a 'Kirk' figure when there's Boba Fett and Bumblebee next to him!

I saw those too. Dammit, where are my Legos??

I remember that they had action figures for the first film, but most of them seemed to still be sitting around on the shelves a few months later.

And Legos are genius. Between the sets and the games, I think they've done more to introduce my nephews and friends' kids to the worlds of Harry Potter, Star Wars, and Indiana Jones than any other piece of marketing has.

 

[DKDetective]

Man, your hatred of this film really shines through in your posts.

Oh come on, there were a lot of complaints about the marketing when the trailers first came out - how the glass cage thing looked like a rehash of the Joker in TDK/Loki in Avengers/Silva in Skyfall and how it looked like they were going for a TDK/Empire Strikes Back/darker sequel vibe with the name and everything. My description of the marketing has nothing to do with my dislike of the film. I had the same thoughts about the marketing long before the film came and when I will still holding out hope that I would enjoy it like Trek 09 and they were just marketing the film that way to exploit the success of those sorts of films with the GA. I don't know how describing my girlfriend's opinions of the trailers reflects my opinion. I went to see the movie hoping for the best, she wouldn't go with me being completely uninterested by what she had seen.

 

[Warhammer]

You're comparing apples with oranges. Bond and Batman have a far broader appeal in general. ST 09 may in retrospect be a fluke.

Naw, I'm going to disagree with that.

This franchise had potential. What happened in 2009 was lightning in a bottle for the franchise as a whole. If the film had been marketed better and released sooner, it wouldn't be underperforming like it is now. I'm not saying this film was going to make a billion. My post illustrated the lack in marketing and timing of release.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well I hope that JJ casts Tennant as Chewie's son in Episode 7.

I don't think I have ever been more nervous or excited in my life about something that has no logical effect on me like I am Episode 7. I don't even want to discuss it in the forums. Too worked up.

 

[jmc]

Naw, I'm going to disagree with that.

This franchise had potential. What happened in 2009 was lightning in a bottle for the franchise as a whole. If the film had been marketed better and released sooner, it wouldn't be underperforming like it is now. I'm not saying this film was going to make a billion. My post illustrated the lack in marketing and timing of release.

What your post didn't take into account was that Trek has always had a niche market and maybe the potential isn't nearly as big as we'd like to think. And perhaps 2009 was lightning in a bottle, the problem is it's hard to capture it twice.

 

[danoyse]

Two things about Who. They made the Doctor "attractive" starring with Tennant, and it has come along at the time when British Television has a great rep around the world.

It also doesn't hurt that he shows success is a great source of British pride.

Exactly. I was vaguely aware of Doctor Who in the 80s, but mostly because I saw articles about in Starlog. I didn't know anyone who'd ever watched it.

I saw the musical version of Matilda on Broadway last month, and there's a Doctor Who reference in the song where Bruce Bogtrotter is being forced to eat a whole chocolate cake in front of the class ("Maybe your largeness/Is a bit like the Tardis/Considerably roomier inside!"). I'd heard they changed that line when it started previews on Broadway because they thought American audiences wouldn't get it. But they were actually upset it was missing, so it was changed back.

 

[jmc]

Oh come on, there were a lot of complaints about the marketing when the trailers first came out - how the glass cage thing looked like a rehash of the Joker in TDK/Loki in Avengers/Silva in Skyfall and how it looked like they were going for a TDK/Empire Strikes Back/darker sequel vibe with the name and everything. My description of the marketing has nothing to do with my dislike of the film. I had the same thoughts about the marketing long before the film came and when I will still holding out hope that I would enjoy it like Trek 09 and they were just marketing the film that way to exploit the success of those sorts of films with the GA. I don't know how describing my girlfriend's opinions of the trailers reflects my opinion. I went to see the movie hoping for the best, she wouldn't go with me being completely uninterested by what she had seen.

Sorry, but I've read some of your other posts regarding this film, and there's a genuine venomous vibe you're displaying toward the movie. Perhaps you don't mean for it to sound like that but to be honest that's what it reads.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I saw those too. Dammit, where are my Legos??

I remember that they had action figures for the first film, but most of them seemed to still be sitting around on the shelves a few months later.

And Legos are genius. Between the sets and the games, I think they've done more to introduce my nephews and friends' kids to the worlds of Harry Potter, Star Wars, and Indiana Jones than any other piece of marketing has.

Yep. Makes the little ones fall in love. My niece adores SW because of the games. Was the same for me, of course minus the games.

What your post didn't take into account was that Trek has always had a niche market and maybe the potential isn't nearly as big as we'd like to think. And perhaps 2009 was lightning in a bottle, the problem is it's hard to capture it twice.

Unless you are Thor.