Star Trek into Darkness Box Office Prediction Thread

[Octoberist]

What your post didn't take into account was that Trek has always had a niche market and maybe the potential isn't nearly as big as we'd like to think. And perhaps 2009 was lightning in a bottle, the problem is it's hard to capture it twice.

Star Trek is a conundrum of a franchise: It's influential as it's misunderstood. Renowned and dismissed by the General Public. As niche as it is popular.

It's legacy in pop culture is a lot more complicated than we think is it.

 

[danoyse]

I don't think I have ever been more nervous or excited in my life about something that has no logical effect on me like I am Episode 7. I don't even want to discuss it in the forums. Too worked up.

I can't even let myself think about it. My poor nephew...he'll be 7 when it opens, and he has no idea how his spastic aunt is already planning that trip to the movies with him. Good thing he already likes Star Wars.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Exactly. I was vaguely aware of Doctor Who in the 80s, but mostly because I saw articles about in Starlog. I didn't know anyone who'd ever watched it.

I saw the musical version of Matilda on Broadway last month, and there's a Doctor Who reference in the song where Bruce Bogtrotter is being forced to eat a whole chocolate cake in front of the class ("Maybe your largeness/Is a bit like the Tardis/Considerably roomier inside!"). I'd heard they changed that line when it started previews on Broadway because they thought American audiences wouldn't get it. But they were actually upset it was missing, so it was changed back.

That is both awesome and awe inspiring. Good on the audiences for getting those lyrics back in. I still have trouble believing Who airs the same date now here in the US.

 

[Warhammer]

What your post didn't take into account was that Trek has always had a niche market and maybe the potential isn't nearly as big as we'd like to think. And perhaps 2009 was lightning in a bottle, the problem is it's hard to capture it twice.

Yeah, I understand that Trek is niche. But Star Trek (2009) and Star Trek Into Darkness, as films, haven't been niche at all. They've been accessible to the point that many Trekkies are angry. I'm of the understanding that with the previous film's momentum, this film could have had a better performance. Again, I wasn't claiming this film was going to make a billion. I was merely comparing marketing campaigns and release dates (and there are parallels between this and Batman Begins) But hey, you're on one side of the coin and I'm on the opposite side of the coin. We're not going to convince each other of our points.

 

[danoyse]

That is both awesome and awe inspiring. Good on the audiences for getting those lyrics back in. I still have trouble believing Who airs the same date now here in the US.

I wish Downton Abbey would do the same.

When I saw the musical Billy Elliot in London, there was a scene where Billy took a copy of Smash Hits magazine out of his bag, which was a British music magazine. When I saw it in New York, it was switched to a Star Trek book. When his dance teacher questioned it, Billy made a Vulcan salute.

 

[Warhammer]

That is both awesome and awe inspiring. Good on the audiences for getting those lyrics back in. I still have trouble believing Who airs the same date now here in the US.

Dr. Who has come a long way. I am happy for the franchise. It being successful even in the US is a great thing not only for science fiction, but for fans of science fiction in general (even those who aren't fans of Dr. Who). It opens many doors.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Star Trek is a conundrum of a franchise: It's influential as it's misunderstood. Renowned and dismissed by the General Public. As niche as it is popular.

It's legacy in pop culture is a lot more complicated than we think is it.

Are you talking about Trek or Shatner's celebrity?

I can't even let myself think about it. My poor nephew...he'll be 7 when it opens, and he has no idea how his spastic aunt is already planning that trip to the movies with him. Good thing he already likes Star Wars.

I think it is because we have all thought about it for so long, the reality really is stunning. We all have our ideas what Episode VII was going to be. Even if it has only been the foggiest outline (Though with me, quite more then that). I still can't quite believe it.

And your nephew has my sympathies. t:

 

[Octoberist]

Are you talking about Trek or Shatner's celebrity?


I think it is because we have all thought about it for so long, the reality really is stunning. We all have our ideas what Episode VII was going to be. Even if it has only been the foggiest outline (Though with me, quite more then that). I still can't quite believe it.

And your nephew has my sympathies. t:

I've thought my very young second cousins to dislike the prequels, that makes me a great relative! True story!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I wish Downton Abbey would do the same.

When I saw the musical Billy Elliot in London, there was a scene where Billy took a copy of Smash Hits magazine out of his bag, which was a British music magazine. When I saw it in New York, it was switched to a Star Trek book. When his dance teacher questioned it, Billy made a Vulcan salute.

I have only just started Downtown Abbey, but it airdates here have been the subject of much discussion with friends and family. One of my sister's friend uses the internet to watch them when they first air in the UK. She isn't allowed to talk about the show.

That Bill Elliot story is interesting. I wonder about who made that decision and their view on Trek in our popular culture.

It also makes me think about Harry Potter. Early on you had the subtle Americanization of the material in the States, until the first movie almost made a billion.

I've thought my very young second cousins to dislike the prequels, that makes me a great relative! True story!

My niece loves RotS. Loves it. Tells me it is better then ESB. I don't have the heart to crush her. And really, I am just happy she likes SW, even if it isn't the best SW imo.

 

[danoyse]

I think it is because we have all thought about it for so long, the reality really is stunning. We all have our ideas what Episode VII was going to be. Even if it has only been the foggiest outline (Though with me, quite more then that). I still can't quite believe it.

And your nephew has my sympathies. t:

I honestly thought it was an Onion headline the first time I read it was happening.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm not surprised that this film is unlikely going to beat Star Trek 11's numbers at domestic box-office. Compare to the 1st film, there just wasn't much hype this time around and the competition is bigger this year than in 2009.

 

[Octoberist]

Are you talking about Trek or Shatner's celebrity?


I think it is because we have all thought about it for so long, the reality really is stunning. We all have our ideas what Episode VII was going to be. Even if it has only been the foggiest outline (Though with me, quite more then that). I still can't quite believe it.

And your nephew has my sympathies. t:

The amazing thing about Shatner is how funny he is. I wish he did more comedies becasue I remembered as a kid, he was a frequent guest on 'Talk Soup', and he was hilarious.

Here's a clip. It's pure genius.:

[YT]xyhyILu1oiA[/YT]

 

[DKDetective]

Sorry, but I've read some of your other posts regarding this film, and there's a genuine venomous vibe you're displaying toward the movie. Perhaps you don't mean for it to sound like that but to be honest that's what it reads.

I'll openly admit that I am angered and frustrated by the film in how it continued to do so many things so right (in terms of performances, pacing, action, and much of the production design), but that it did so much more wrong, in that it failed to exploit the great promise of the last film, continue its sense of lightness and optimism, and had horrible, unoriginal and unintelligent writing. (all of this in my opinion of course) I guess when everyone else is on the high of loving the movie that seems like venomous nitpicking.

I wanted to like the movie. I hate being the angry, nitpicky nerd on forums because I know how annoying those people can feel when everyone else is basking in the after-effects of a film they loved. I tried to convince myself I loved TDKR for almost a whole week when I really didn't as a result. I can't help but really dislike this movie. I'm honestly surprised that the box office numbers are disappointing because I can see why all of you loved it.

I was just wondering if maybe people are genuinely tired of dark sequels with Joker-type villains, as this film was largely marketed. Part of why I am so excited about Man of Steel is because it seems to be a movie about hope and optimism (things that I have always loved about Star Trek) and we haven't really had a big movie like that in a while. I've been having this feeling that Man of Steel might be a bigger hit than expected because maybe people in general are feeling such a need for optimism. As such, I am genuinely interested in whether the ESB/TDK-style of marketing hurt STID.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The amazing thing about Shatner is how funny he is. I wish he did more comedies becasue I remembered as a kid, he was a frequent guest on 'Talk Soup', and he was hilarious.

Here's a clip. It's pure genius.:

[YT]xyhyILu1oiA[/YT]

Shatner is great. It is just weird, because growing up he was little more then a punchline to me before he showed up on The Practice. Then suddenly everyone I knew "always loved him". Bunch of liars.

I honestly thought it was an Onion headline the first time I read it was happening.

When I called my brother, he thought I was messing with him. He wouldn't believe me.

I'll openly admit that I am angered and frustrated by the film in how it continued to do so many things so right (in terms of performances, pacing, action, and much of the production design), but that it did so much more wrong, in that it failed to exploit the great promise of the last film, continue its sense of lightness and optimism, and had horrible, unoriginal and unintelligent writing. (all of this in my opinion of course) I guess when everyone else is on the high of loving the movie that seems like venomous nitpicking.

I wanted to like the movie. I hate being the angry, nitpicky nerd on forums because I know how annoying those people can feel when everyone else is basking in the after-effects of a film they loved. I tried to convince myself I loved TDKR for almost a whole week when I really didn't as a result. I can't help but really dislike this movie. I'm honestly surprised that the box office numbers are disappointing because I can see why all of you loved it.

I was just wondering if maybe people are genuinely tired of dark sequels with Joker-type villains, as this film was largely marketed. Part of why I am so excited about Man of Steel is because it seems to be a movie about hope and optimism (things that I have always loved about Star Trek) and we haven't really had a big movie like that in a while. I've been having this feeling that Man of Steel might be a bigger hit than expected because maybe people in general are feeling such a need for optimism. As such, I am genuinely interested in whether the ESB/TDK-style of marketing hurt STID.

This might be a you thing then.

 

[danoyse]

I have only just started Downtown Abbey, but it airdates here have been the subject of much discussion with friends and family. One of my sister's friend uses the internet to watch them when they first air in the UK. She isn't allowed to talk about the show.

That Bill Elliot story is interesting. I wonder about who made that decision and their view on Trek in our popular culture.

It also makes me think about Harry Potter. Early on you had the subtle Americanization of the material in the States, until the first movie almost made a billion.

This was the first season of Downton that I watched while it aired. And I'd made it without hearing spoilers from the UK...but then my cousin spoiled the ending of an episode on Facebook before I had chance to watch it. I can't win.

The Star Trek thing seemed strange to me too. It took place in 1984, so it didn't seem like an obvious choice. The story still took place in England in the NY production too.

I've read the UK versions of the Harry Potter books, and the language changes are funny. My favorite was Hermione saying "pop my clogs" instead of "kick the bucket" in Prisoner of Azkaban. The first book has the most changes, but the later books are barely changed at all.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This was the first season of Downton that I watched while it aired. And I'd made it without hearing spoilers from the UK...but then my cousin spoiled the ending of an episode on Facebook before I had chance to watch it. I can't win.

The Star Trek thing seemed strange to me too. It took place in 1984, so it didn't seem like an obvious choice. The story still took place in England in the NY production too.

I've read the UK versions of the Harry Potter books, and the language changes are funny. My favorite was Hermione saying "pop my clogs" instead of "kick the bucket" in Prisoner of Azkaban. The first book has the most changes, but the later books are barely changed at all.

You tried and you tried, and then your own family did you in.

I am now curious about how Trek is viewed in Britain, especially in the 80s. Or perhaps how America views 80s UK.

And yeah, I love that once Potter got huge, they almost stopped it completely. Apparently Americans will watch and read something that isn't purpose built for us.

 

[danoyse]

Shatner is great. It is just weird, because growing up he was little more then a punchline to me before he showed up on The Practice. Then suddenly everyone I knew "always loved him". Bunch of liars.

Have you ever seen his SNL sketch from the 80s when he had a meltdown at a Star Trek convention. Freaking hilarious.

http://vimeo.com/44941848

When I called my brother, he thought I was messing with him. He wouldn't believe me.

I live in NJ...we were in the middle of a hurricane when that news broke. It was the most surreal thing ever.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I was just wondering if maybe people are genuinely tired of dark sequels with Joker-type villains, as this film was largely marketed. Part of why I am so excited about Man of Steel is because it seems to be a movie about hope and optimism (things that I have always loved about Star Trek) and we haven't really had a big movie like that in a while. I've been having this feeling that Man of Steel might be a bigger hit than expected because maybe people in general are feeling such a need for optimism. As such, I am genuinely interested in whether the ESB/TDK-style of marketing hurt STID.

To be fair, Man Of Steel is embracing a very similar approach to this latest Star Trek film. But unlike Into Darkness, MOS has a lot more going against it than for it (ST09 was a strong predecessor for Into Darkness, whereas Superman Returns is a tougher act to follow for a franchise with more baggage).

That said, I'm actually surprised that Darkness isn't performing better and I'm wondering how other films will fare since it was arguably one of the best marketed projects of the summer. Wolverine isn't getting hardly any promo at all and I think it's going to be the next major "underperformer".

 

[DKDetective]

To be fair, Man Of Steel is embracing a very similar approach to this latest Star Trek film. But unlike Into Darkness, MOS has a lot more going against it than for it (ST09 was a strong predecessor for Into Darkness, whereas Superman Returns is a tougher act to follow for a franchise with more baggage).

That said, I'm actually surprised that Darkness isn't performing better and I'm wondering how other films will fare since it was arguably one of the best marketed projects of the summer. Wolverine isn't getting hardly any promo at all and I think it's going to be the next major "underperformer".

I don't follow at all how Man of Steel is following a similar approach. Abram's take on Star Trek has been about Star Wars-ing things up by increasing the action, humour, fantasy elements, and crafting space adventure thrill rides. He did a way with the pretension/allegory and all the scientific explanation. In comparison to the Reeve films, Man of Steel seems to be doing the opposite. It is more serious and grounded and you can ask the Man of Steel boards about how surprised they are how little the trailers have been selling the action until recently. The teaser, trailer 2, and much of trailer 3 has been about character moments.

More on topic, I wonder if concealing a certain character's identity is a part of this film's under performance. Based on how much so many of you have enjoyed that character, maybe it would have been wiser for Abrams and gang to use him to sell the film openly.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I don't follow at all how Man of Steel is following a similar approach. Abram's take on Star Trek has been about Star Wars-ing things up by increasing the action, humour, fantasy elements, and crafting space adventure thrill rides. He did a way with the pretension/allegory and all the scientific explanation. In comparison to the Reeve films, Man of Steel seems to be doing the opposite. It is more serious and grounded and you can ask the Man of Steel boards about how surprised they are how little the trailers have been selling the action until recently. The teaser, trailer 2, and much of trailer 3 has been about character moments.

More on topic, I wonder if concealing a certain character's identity is a part of this film's under performance. Based on how much so many of you have enjoyed that character, maybe it would have been wiser for Abrams and gang to use him to sell the film openly.

I disagree, but this is not the appropriate thread to discuss it.

 

[mclay18]

Before the film came out, I was expecting a big $800M-$1B worldwide gross for the pic. After seeing it and reading other opinions, $500M worldwide is the ceiling for this (which is pretty good but not great). Too much competition the next week also plays a factor. Unless STID holds well in the next two weeks, I think it'll be one of the more disappointing box office runs for Paramount.

I think J.J. Abrams leaving the franchise is a good thing, and get a director who can capitalize on the promise generated with the first two films. And they need to get fresh writers, ones who hadn't worked with Abrams at all.

 

[jmc]

Before the film came out, I was expecting a big $800M-$1B worldwide gross for the pic. After seeing it and reading other opinions, $500M worldwide is the ceiling for this (which is pretty good but not great). Too much competition the next week also plays a factor. Unless STID holds well in the next two weeks, I think it'll be one of the more disappointing box office runs for Paramount.

I think J.J. Abrams leaving the franchise is a good thing, and get a director who can capitalize on the promise generated with the first two films. And they need to get fresh writers, ones who hadn't worked with Abrams at all.

I don't understand this. The movie is good, how is getting rid of the writers or Abrams involvement a step in the right direction when this film is good? Isn't it about time we just accept Trek's place in cinema instead of pretending it's this sleeping giant?

 

[Mr. Dent]

Yeah, I would. I would rather get no more Star Trek than have someone continue to make movies using the Star Trek name that fail to capture the spirit of what I believe Star Trek is about. I have 3 excellent TV series and a handful of good movies, I don't need more Trek content.

Then how about you just don't watch the new movies instead of hoping they fail for other people?

 

[Cannikin]

Heads are going to roll tomorrow.

But who falls on the sword? Not Abrams, he jumped ship months ago. Most likely those writers. I expect Paramount to clean house and replace them for Star Trek 3.

I hope so!

Yeah, I would. I would rather get no more Star Trek than have someone continue to make movies using the Star Trek name that fail to capture the spirit of what I believe Star Trek is about. I have 3 excellent TV series and a handful of good movies, I don't need more Trek content.

I agree. I had hoped JJ would give Star Trek new life, but he's stuck to a bad formula, and now I realize it's not finished dying yet. One day, Star Trek will find someone who can blend JJ's visual style with good writing.

There definitely is, and always has been. I remember seeing a sold-out movie (I think it was Pet Sematary), where they show trailers for Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade and Star Trek V. The crowd went wild for the Indiana Jones trailer, but only about a third cheered on the Star Trek V trailer. And this was the movie after Voyage Home, which had agruably been the most mainstream hit of the series.

To be fair, even the trailer for Star Trek V was bad.

I
Star Trek had always had this, "Oh, you're that kind of a nerd," stigma about. Even after the 2009 movie.

I usually point out that their smart phones, computers and ipads (among other common gadgets) were invented by "that kind of nerd" and inspired by technology seen on Star Trek, along with most of our astronauts and physicists falling into the same category. Then I ask them to tell me what Dr Who and Star Wars fans have contributed to the world.

Man, your hatred of this film really shines through in your posts.

I'm afraid his opinion is valid and shared my many. Cruise other sites like Mike and Denise Okuda's Facebook page, TrekWeb or any other place Trekkers hang out to see why this franchise is just not working for us. I have serious issues with the writing, and the technical problems I have with the movie could fill pages.

I am right there with you and it is actually a funny point of contention with a lot of fans of both Star Trek and Dr Who before the "semi-reboots". Both have clearly been influenced by Star Wars on their returns, and this for some reason really grates those fans. Apparently SW is code for "dumb everything down".

It's just a matter of Star Wars being less sci-fi and more fantasy based. I share Dr Tyson's opinion on the matter.
http://www.businessinsider.com/neil-degrasse-tyson-star-trek-2013-5

I don't dislike Star Wars or consider it dumb. I just don't consider it in the same genre. I like them both for very different reasons and I've never wanted one to be more like the other.

 

[jmc]

I'm afraid his opinion is valid and shared my many. Cruise other sites like Mike and Denise Okuda's Facebook page, TrekWeb or any other place Trekkers hang out to see why this franchise is just not working for us. I have serious issues with the writing and the technical problems I have with the movie could fill pages.

I didn't say his opinion isn't valid, I said he's attitude toward the film comes across as venomous.