Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

[JKKS085]

Civil War did not have summer weekdays.
Correct drop nonetheless, probably a natural correction after the steep Saturday drop and sizable Sunday decline. Tuesday numbers will give us a good indication of what to expect next week end.

 

[Erzengel]

Tuesdays are discounted, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bump.

 

[Greens]

Predictions say that Suicide Squad will beat both Pete's Dragon and Sausage Party in its second weekend

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/box-office-suicide-squad-petes-dragon-sausage-party-1201833938/

 

[Greenlite]

Deadline predicts a 60-61% 2nd weekend drop and 51-54M weekend, very good compared to the previous prediction on Sat and Sun. Though Deadline overestimated the OW - 147M.

 

[WilliamK99]

13.1 million Monday is a great number civil war made the same on its first Monday and civil war had a good 45 million more Opening Weekend than Suicide Squad

Are you really comparing a Monday for a movie released while kids and teens, are in school compared to a movie released when majority of kids are not in school?

 

[LoganGambit87]

Are you really comparing a Monday for a movie released while kids and teens, are in school compared to a movie released when majority of kids are not in school?

deadpool did 19 million on its first monday in feb. dont make excuses

 

[writer0327]

deadpool did 19 million on its first monday in feb. dont make excuses

That was President's Day.

 

[JKKS085]

deadpool did 19 million on its first monday in feb. dont make excuses

Feb 15th was Presidents Day.

 

[JKKS085]

[BLACKOUT][/BLACKOUT]

Deadline predicts a 60-61% 2nd weekend drop and 51-54M weekend, very good compared to the previous prediction on Sat and Sun. Though Deadline overestimated the OW - 147M.

That would still be steep for a non-sequel with limited competition but given the reception, far from a disaster.
I wouldn't be surprised if it drops a little more than that though (Variety tends to be a little on the optimistic side with their predictions).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Percentage-wise the Monday drop was indistinguishable from the first Monday drops of Ant-Man and MI:RN, which both opened at about the same time as SS last year. In short, SS did just fine yesterday.

 

[Wildcard]

Predictions say that Suicide Squad will beat both Pete's Dragon and Sausage Party in its second weekend

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/box-office-suicide-squad-petes-dragon-sausage-party-1201833938/

I've seen reports that PD could come in around $43 million its opening weekend. If it climbs that high or higher, it could take the number one spot.

I can see it happening.

 

[WilliamK99]

deadpool did 19 million on its first monday in feb. dont make excuses

That was a U.S. Federal Holiday...

 

[LoganGambit87]

Feb 15th was Presidents Day.

was monday march 28th also a holiday aswell since bvs hit 15 million or are we just gonna hand out more excuses

 

[JKKS085]

was monday march 28th also a holiday aswell since bvs hit 15 million or are we just gonna hand out more excuses

Easter Monday ? You're on a roll buddy.

 

[LoganGambit87]

Easter Monday ? You're on a roll buddy.

so i guess we are just gonna discredit suicide squad box office because kids were not in school so it counts as less now

you blew this way out of proportion all i did was congratulate the great Monday box office

 

[WilliamK99]

so i guess we are just gonna discredit suicide squad box office because kids were not in school so it counts as less now

you blew this way out of proportion all i did was congratulate the great Monday box office

I have been following the box office for decades now, wasn't trying to be a jerk just stating that when you try to compare between different movies, you have to take into consideration all factors... Something as simple as a Canadian Holiday can add millions to an opening weekend...

 

[JKKS085]

so i guess we are just gonna discredit suicide squad box office because kids were not in school so it counts as less now

you blew this way out of proportion all i did was congratulate the great Monday box office

No it wasn't. You tried to use CW numbers to prop up SS BO by comparing apples and oranges. Too bad it didn't work.
SS did good on Monday though if you factor in everything and leave out major variables (such as public holidays or else) to serve some agenda.

 

[Pickleweasel]

Tuesdays are discounted, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bump.

That's not typical for a movies first Tuesday

 

[mclay18]

That's not typical for a movies first Tuesday

A lot of theater chains now have ticket and concession promotions every Tuesday to drum up foot traffic during the week; mostly ticket discounts and concessions, so there's usually a bump from the first Monday. When I worked at Carmike, they had a Tuesday special where small popcorn and small drink were $2 apiece. And now they have a $5 all day ticket special as well. And the luxury theater I work now at has a Terrific Tuesday $8 ticket special, as well as a $7 medium drink/popcorn combo.

But whenever a big holiday falls on a Tuesday, business is even better than usual due to those promotions. Especially if it's Christmas or Valentine's Day...

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That's not typical for a movies first Tuesday

It depends a bit on the size of the box office. Smaller films can get a bump even on the first Tuesday (see: Ant-Man). Bigger films generally fall a little bit even with the discount day (see: Jurassic World). My guess is that SS will be basically flat vs. Monday.

 

[ManWithNoName18]

Deadline predicts a 60-61% 2nd weekend drop and 51-54M weekend, very good compared to the previous prediction on Sat and Sun. Though Deadline overestimated the OW - 147M.

According to Deadline the under 35 demographic who rated it an A- are the ones who are preventing SS from turning into another BVS situation.

And Variety is saying it'll be closer to a 65% drop at 45-48 million

 

[Kathemy]

Tracking box office percentages:

BvS: Sat -37.9%, Sun -33.3%, Mon -55.5%
Most recent day compared to Premiere: 18.44%

SS: Sat -40.6%, Sun -21.7%, Mon -56.5%
Most recent day compared to Premiere: 20.25%

 

[WilliamK99]

According to Deadline the under 35 demographic who rated it an A- are the ones who are preventing SS from turning into another BVS situation.

And Variety is saying it'll be closer to a 65% drop at 45-48 million

Deadline is also pretty horrible at predicting boxoffice, like so bad I could pick random numbers and do a better job. Their only saving grace is they update their page like 10 times a weekend to change their numbers...

 

[metaphysician]

On the matter of allegedly-conspiratorial divergences between critics scores and audience scores. . . an overlooked factor is simply that the scale only goes up to 100. If a movie is terrible, and reviews badly with critics, there's plenty of space for the audience ( especially a passionate fan audience biased towards the movie ) to rate it considerably higher. OTOH, if the movie is good, and has strong critical reviews. . . there's not much room. You simply can't get a 30 point different when the RT rating is 90, the meter only goes up to 100 ( and realistically, your not even going to get 10, diminishing returns kicking in well beforehand ).

 

[Marvin]

Are you really comparing a Monday for a movie released while kids and teens, are in school compared to a movie released when majority of kids are not in school?

Only seems fair if people are gonna compare the weekends when kids are in school to the ones where they are out...That is, I doubt we'll see anyone talk the circumstances of bigger May weekends when it comes to the discussion of why this things weekend to weekend drop isn't that of other non august films. Speaking of which why not just avoid all that fuss and simply compare it to recent cbms that opened in july/aug. Seems like it's doing fine.

The amount of editorializing going on here over even this, a positive number, one can only imagine when a truly bad one actually happens.