Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

[The Joker]

Musashi got banned. Why am I not surprised.

 

[Micromind]

Musashi got banned. Why am I not surprised.

Why ?

 

[The Joker]

Why ?

He was very familiar to a previously multi banned user who's had names like Pantera, Shinobi etc.

 

[Micromind]

He was very familiar to a previously multi banned user who's had names like Pantera, Shinobi etc.

I see.

 

[FunkMiller]

I think the thing to bear in mind here, when discussing the box office and critical success of the DC movies, is the mind set of those in control at WB.

Which is as follows:

"If we don't make as much money as Marvel or Fox, the DC films will be a failure. If they're not critically as well regarded, we don't care that much, but it still looks bad."

Now, the problem with that mind set is that if the DC movies continue to trail behind Marvel and Fox (okay, Apocalypse underperformed, but other than that both companies have done better at similar stages of development), then sooner or later, the plug will either get pulled completely on the DC cinematic universe, or it will be truncated severely.

This is the most important thing to consider when thinking about the future of the DC universe - not whether you liked the movies or not, but whether they're good enough by consensus of critics and GA to keep the DC movies rolling along.

We don't know what the answer to that is yet, but BvS was a terrible start on both counts (if you don't think WB were extremely disappointed in its box office return then you really haven't been paying enough attention) and Suicide Squad has continued the poor results critically. We'll know about the commercial results next week.

Looking at everything from a high up level, things are not looking rosy. A good Monday & Tuesday performance is good, but that's not going to mean **** if the second weekend is poor, or if SS doesn't hit a good 650 - 700 million overall.

 

[idiot09]

wow the tuesday number is fantastic

Indeed.The GA seems to have taken to the film.I was looking to book some tickets for this weekend,and they are all booked.It doesnt surprise me,its a fun movie.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

I think the thing to bear in mind here, when discussing the box office and critical success of the DC movies, is the mind set of those in control at WB.

Which is as follows:

"If we don't make as much money as Marvel or Fox, the DC films will be a failure. If they're not critically as well regarded, we don't care that much, but it still looks bad."

Now, the problem with that mind set is that if the DC movies continue to trail behind Marvel and Fox (okay, Apocalypse underperformed, but other than that both companies have done better at similar stages of development), then sooner or later, the plug will either get pulled completely on the DC cinematic universe, or it will be truncated severely.

This is the most important thing to consider when thinking about the future of the DC universe - not whether you liked the movies or not, but whether they're good enough by consensus of critics and GA to keep the DC movies rolling along.

We don't know what the answer to that is yet, but BvS was a terrible start on both counts (if you don't think WB were extremely disappointed in its box office return then you really haven't been paying enough attention) and Suicide Squad has continued the poor results critically. We'll know about the commercial results next week.

Looking at everything from a high up level, things are not looking rosy. A good Monday & Tuesday performance is good, but that's not going to mean **** if the second weekend is poor, or if SS doesn't hit a good 650 - 700 million overall.

Hate to burst your Anti-DC bubble, but you ARE aware that DC is slowly building a cinematic universe, just like Marvel did....right?

The first two Marvel films had a combined WW gross of $848.6 million dollars. The first two DC films had a combined WW gross of $1 billion, 560 million dollars...tell you what; go ahead and add Marvel's third release, Iron Man 2, WW box office of $623.9 million dollars into the mix, and oh look! Marvel is STILL lagging behind DC by a grand total by about $88 million dollars, lol.

That's not even counting Suicide's current bank.

Looking at everything from a high up level, you are completely out of your mind if you think things are not looking "rosey" for for the DC cinematic universe.

But hey; if you need to think differently to feel better, you go right ahead, lol

 

[Knight-Tale]

and now the narrative finally begins to change
Hopefully the weekend numbers are good otherwise we'll see it begin to twist again
http://deadline.com/2016/08/suicide...rican-civil-war-batman-v-superman-1201801379/

deadline is projecting a 50-54m weekend which seems high but sausage party and pete's dragon are the only competition.
hmmm

 

[Ozbridge]

and now the narrative finally begins to change
Hopefully the weekend numbers are good otherwise we'll see it begin to twist again
http://deadline.com/2016/08/suicide...rican-civil-war-batman-v-superman-1201801379/

deadline is projecting a 50-54m weekend which seems high but sausage party and pete's dragon are the only competition.
hmmm

50-54M 2nd weekend means 60-63% drop, which is reasonable, considering big preview of OW and weak competition. Seems like SS will have 225-230M 10-day gross.

 

[Creo]

Hate to burst your Anti-DC bubble, but you ARE aware that DC is slowly building a cinematic universe, just like Marvel did....right?

The first two Marvel films had a combined WW gross of $848.6 million dollars. The first two DC films had a combined WW gross of $1 billion, 560 million dollars...tell you what; go ahead and add Marvel's third release, Iron Man 2, WW box office of $623.9 million dollars into the mix, and oh look! Marvel is STILL lagging behind DC by a grand total by about $88 million dollars, lol.

That's not even counting Suicide's current bank.

Looking at everything from a high up level, you are completely out of your mind if you think things are not looking "rosey" for for the DC cinematic universe.

But hey; if you need to think differently to feel better, you go right ahead, lol

Actually no, you are. Gross is great, bit profit is was it key, and so far the profit the DCEU has been embarrassingly low.

You're also comparing the origins of the MCU based on (at the time) second and third string characters, but you're comparing them to the two most iconic superheroes of all time. Yet those two couldn't outgross that previous two solo Batman films, and the profit made is lower than almost every MCU movie to date. You're also leaving out inflation, increased theater count, and the international movie scene blowing up in the last few years.

MoS couldn't out gross the movie that was supposed to be Marvel's first flop based on third string characters no-one had ever heard of, and BvS got it's stuff shoved in. Go back and look at all of the news for WB and D.C. movies in the weeks after BvS released; things aren't going particularly well and a lot of changes were made to rectify it.

The overall success of SS has yet to be determined, and we'll see this weekend how it'll likely fair. But don't judge is end result based off of its first Fri-Tues, BvS did pretty big numbers in that time frame too.

 

[Pickleweasel]

There's a new report saying ghostbusters needs 300 mil to break even but SS needs 700 mil? Right....

 

[brandeezy89]

There's a new report saying ghostbusters needs 300 mil to break even but SS needs 700 mil? Right....

Same thing will happen to WW. The budget is reportedly 120M but i'm sure people will start saying that it'll need 800M to break even soon

 

[idiot09]

There's a new report saying ghostbusters needs 300 mil to break even but SS needs 700 mil? Right....

SS had a higher budget(175) so its not really comparable.Reliable people have said SS needs to make above 600 to profit.

 

[brandeezy89]

SS had a higher budget(175) so its not really comparable.Reliable people have said SS needs to make above 600 to profit.

Actually Ghostbusters needs around 500M+ to break even. They spent 150M-200M on ads

 

[obredaan]

Actually Ghostbusters needs around 500M+ to break even. They spent 150M-200M on ads

Ghostbusters tanked. It lost over $70 Million as is being reported.

 

[idiot09]

Actually Ghostbusters needs around 500M+ to break even. They spent 150M-200M on ads

Makes sense.The rumors that SS needs 800 to break even,however,always seemed like utter BS.From what Ive heard its more like 600-650mil which sound like doable to me right now.

 

[Flint Marko]

Hate to burst your Anti-DC bubble, but you ARE aware that DC is slowly building a cinematic universe, just like Marvel did....right?

The first two Marvel films had a combined WW gross of $848.6 million dollars. The first two DC films had a combined WW gross of $1 billion, 560 million dollars...tell you what; go ahead and add Marvel's third release, Iron Man 2, WW box office of $623.9 million dollars into the mix, and oh look! Marvel is STILL lagging behind DC by a grand total by about $88 million dollars, lol.

That's not even counting Suicide's current bank.

Looking at everything from a high up level, you are completely out of your mind if you think things are not looking "rosey" for for the DC cinematic universe.

But hey; if you need to think differently to feel better, you go right ahead, lol

Context always seems to go out the window in discussions like this.

Of course DC's first efforts to bring Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, Harley Quinn, and the Joker on the big screen in a connected universe did better than their Iron Man/Hulk counter-parts. It's obvious the hare would have a better start than the tortoise. However, it's worth mentioning that WB has spent $160 million more on their first three films than the competition did. Kind of makes that $88 million difference look a little unimpressive.

The point here, and one that can't be ignored if you're really going to assert that things are going great behind closed doors at WB, is that the consistent view that they are churning out subpar efforts has left hundreds of millions in potential box office receipts on the table. They know that, and aren't happy with recieving less money on their investment than they feel they could/should have.

 

[Kathemy]

All the damn "break even" points are nonsense unless they specify international versus domestic.

Saying "it needs $600m to break even" means nothing. Saying "it needs $600m to break even assuming it doesn't gross higher internationally than domestic" is another story.

 

[Juan1193]

Actually no, you are. Gross is great, bit profit is was it key, and so far the profit the DCEU has been embarrassingly low.

You're also comparing the origins of the MCU based on (at the time) second and third string characters, but you're comparing them to the two most iconic superheroes of all time. Yet those two couldn't outgross that previous two solo Batman films, and the profit made is lower than almost every MCU movie to date. You're also leaving out inflation, increased theater count, and the international movie scene blowing up in the last few years.

MoS couldn't out gross the movie that was supposed to be Marvel's first flop based on third string characters no-one had ever heard of, and BvS got it's stuff shoved in. Go back and look at all of the news for WB and D.C. movies in the weeks after BvS released; things aren't going particularly well and a lot of changes were made to rectify it.

The overall success of SS has yet to be determined, and we'll see this weekend how it'll likely fair. But don't judge is end result based off of its first Fri-Tues, BvS did pretty big numbers in that time frame too.

Embarrassingly low? Do you have the numbers to back up your claim? Probably not.

The original post that Kirk Langstrom was replying to claimed that DC was way behind Fox and Marvel when that isn't the case looking at the numbers.

MCU: 13 movies; $10.2 billion gross; 787 million average

DCEU: 3 movies; 1.8 billion gross; 606.9 million average

FOX: 9 movies; 4.37 billion gross; 485.6 million average


NOTE: The DCEU number includes Suicide Squad which is still in it's first week and at a current gross of 280 ww, which brought down the DC average considerably, however the Squad will take the DCEU over the 2 billion when all is said and done and the average will likely go up. Without the Squad included the average is 770 million (17 mil short of the Marvel average)

The FOX number only includes the X-Men franchise. The Fantastic Four, Daredevil and Elektra movies aren't counted but if they were the gross would go up (5.393 billion among 14 movies) while the average would go down (385.25 million).


So the claim that DC is so far behind Marvel and Fox isn't really valid. The claim that the DCEU isn't financially successful also isn't valid if it were then why would all these DC movies be planned after JL? The Flash starts filming in January for crying out loud...DCEU is here to stay for the foreseeable future

 

[Baba3231]

SS had a higher budget(175) so its not really comparable.Reliable people have said SS needs to make above 600 to profit.

30 mil difference in budget. 400m more to break even. Hmm

 

[Ozbridge]

I don't understand why the topic "whether the movie breaks even" is so passionately discussed. Like, do we actually know the exact money spent on production/ marketing or the exact profit from theatrical release/ product placement/ tie-in/ licensing fee, etc to make know how much profit a movie exactly makes? And secondly discussing break-even level lightly is probably fun for some people from an financial wise POV but what's the point of turning it into an argument? Like, you don't get any of those money?

And who tf cares about millionaire execs at WB losing sleep? Who tf cares about the studio losing money? (unless you are their shareholder). If you like the DCEU then the DCEU will surely continue since apparently MoS 2 has been announced. If you hate it/ don't like what they are doing with it then you can just pick another franchise to root for. Why this talk about break even it's like beating a dead horse.

 

[FunkMiller]

Hate to burst your Anti-DC bubble, but you ARE aware that DC is slowly building a cinematic universe, just like Marvel did....right?:

Others have made the follow up point for me, so I won't repeat their thoughts, but suffice to say.....

.....I'm not anti DC pal. I'm just anti poorly made DC movies. Try to differentiate between those who are DC fans and just don't like the direction the current movies are going in, from those who aren't DC fans... It'll make your comments hold more weight.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I don't understand why the topic "whether the movie breaks even" is so passionately discussed. Like, do we actually know the exact money spent on production/ marketing or the exact profit from theatrical release/ product placement/ tie-in/ licensing fee, etc to make know how much profit a movie exactly makes? And secondly discussing break-even level lightly is probably fun for some people from an financial wise POV but what's the point of turning it into an argument? Like, you don't get any of those money?

And who tf cares about millionaire execs at WB losing sleep? Who tf cares about the studio losing money? (unless you are their shareholder). If you like the DCEU then the DCEU will surely continue since apparently MoS 2 has been announced. If you hate it/ don't like what they are doing with it then you can just pick another franchise to root for. Why this talk about break even it's like beating a dead horse.

For those who enjoy a movie, I would think they want it to be successful so there is a sequel. Otherwise, I agree that the money doesn't really matter. But for those of us who enjoy numbers in general, it is fun to track these things.

 

[StormC]

Don't post in a box office thread if you don't want to see discussion of the box office.

 

[TheVileOne]

Warner Bros. likely spent at least $150 million on P&A for Suicide Squad. That's on top of $175 million budget. For all we know, the budget could've been higher.

Not only that, studios only get a 50/50 split of box office receipts. Studios get even LESS of a return on foreign box office receipts.

With all that in mind $700 million figure isn't all that surprising or unbelievable.