Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

[Kathemy]

MOS's marketing was reported as 150M, so it's reasonable to estimate the SS marketing is around that range as well.

It might be reasonable but there's no way to know if that is true. Man of Steel had a higher budget. Also if the movie is not to be released in China then they don't need to market it in China. And we don't know how much of the media attention is a result of lavishly spent cash and how much is simple honest hype.

All these discussions boil down to one simple thing - we have too little information to know anything for certain. Film budgets are often misreported. Advertising budgets too. For good reason.

 

[FunkMiller]

Here's something to think on if you doubt how colossal a movie's marketing budget can be:

The average cost of 30 seconds of air time during a football commercial is $500,000. During an episode of prime time TV is between $300,000 and $500,000. Every. Single. Time.

Now, how many times do you remember seeing an SS advert?
How many adverts during prime time TV across the globe do you think there were/are?

It's quite idiotic how much money movie companies will spend to promote a film - especially ones that were idiotically expensive to begin with, and are required to have huge opening weekends.

The 750 million break even doesn't sound quite as silly, eh? t:

 

[FunkMiller]

And on that note, one reason SS's breakeven point may be higher than some believe is backend participation for the actors. I'm sure that at least Smith, Robbie and Leto are due some big checks if SS keeps performing like it is so far.

Good shout. You can bet Smith will have a performance related bonus worked in. If it clears a bar, his back end take will go up. You could see 50 mil just going to actor's percentages.

 

[Doctor Octopus]

Warner Bros. likely spent at least $150 million on P&A for Suicide Squad. That's on top of $175 million budget. For all we know, the budget could've been higher.

Not only that, studios only get a 50/50 split of box office receipts. Studios get even LESS of a return on foreign box office receipts.

With all that in mind $700 million figure isn't all that surprising or unbelievable.

Agreed.

 

[mclay18]

Gitesh Pandya says that the film will break $400M globally on Friday and near $500M by Sunday.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/763540167319846913

It shouldn't have any problem crossing $700M at this rate, even without China.

 

[brandeezy89]

China is still in the cards according to someone who lives there. He says that WB is currently editing the film to meet China's standards and it's being marketed there

 

[mclay18]

WB needs to clear the China-approved cut and get it released before the movie loses momentum at the box office.

 

[kguillou]

Gitesh Pandya says that the film will break $400M globally on Friday and near $500M by Sunday.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/763540167319846913

It shouldn't have any problem crossing $700M at this rate, even without China.

That's great news! If we can reach $700M, I think that's a solid win.

 

[LoganGambit87]

so 326 million WW so far and projected to get near 500 by sunday!!!

great news

 

[Midnite]

China is still in the cards according to someone who lives there. He says that WB is currently editing the film to meet China's standards and it's being marketed there

Why can't they use the 6 - 7 cuts they made already?

 

[ArmsHeldOut]

Gitesh Pandya says that the film will break $400M globally on Friday and near $500M by Sunday.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/763540167319846913

It shouldn't have any problem crossing $700M at this rate, even without China.

That's a pretty impressive feat. Love or hate this film, the general audience has spoken.

 

[TheVileOne]

That's a pretty impressive feat. Love or hate this film, the general audience has spoken.

Meh. The Transformers sequel made over a billion worldwide, even though the last movie did even less domestically.

 

[kguillou]

That's all that matters, honestly. If the audience likes it and there is demand for more. I think this cast deserves anther chance at making a proper Suicide Squad movie.

 

[ArmsHeldOut]

That's all that matters, honestly. If the audience likes it and there is demand for more. I think this cast deserves anther chance at making a proper Suicide Squad movie.

Indeed.

 

[Xrated48]

I still think it's too early the tell how the second week numbers will be but I'm hoping it doesn't drop that much.

 

[Kathemy]

If a movie makes money, the haterdom says the audience is stupid for paying for the bad movie.

If a movie doesn't make money, the haterdom says the movie is bad because the audience isn't paying for the movie.

 

[Serpico Jones]

With these numbers I will be shocked if WB doesn't make a sequel. The audience is there.

 

[BlueLanternKal]

If a movie makes money, the haterdom says the audience is stupid for paying for the bad movie.

If a movie doesn't make money, the haterdom says the movie is bad because the audience isn't paying for the movie.

Truer words have never been spoken.

 

[Xrated48]

If a movie makes money, the haterdom says the audience is stupid for paying for the bad movie.

If a movie doesn't make money, the haterdom says the movie is bad because the audience isn't paying for the movie.

So true.

 

[LoganGambit87]

If a movie makes money, the haterdom says the audience is stupid for paying for the bad movie.

If a movie doesn't make money, the haterdom says the movie is bad because the audience isn't paying for the movie.

bloggers/critics hate that its doing so well

look at this article from collider the writer was probably seething seeing suicide squad do so well

Deadline reports today that Suicide Squad has just unseated Guardians of the Galaxy from another record, for the second time in less than a week. The DC adaptation took in $14.2 million yesterday, which not only beats out Guardians of the Galaxy for best Tuesday take in August, but also pointed its proverbial finger in the chest of a few other blockbusters’ Tuesday take. $14.2 was also enough to take down Captan America: Civil War ($13.7 million) and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($12.7 million) for their respective Tuesday takes.

Perhaps it’s the fact that Suicide Squad is, undoubtedly, a more sufferable overall experience than Batman v Superman that’s been making it so appealing to viewers. I have a hard time believing it’s the movie itself, but the substance of the film doesn’t seem to matter much here. The DC Universe, like Star Wars or Marvel, has garnered and sustains a devotion that is not unlike religion. One can no more evade Suicide Squad, in this thinking, than a church-on-Sunday Christian could skip over the Book of Job. So, when the movie almost certainly scores a second weekend at the top of the box office, with only Sausage Party and Pete’s Dragon posing minuscule threats, there will similarly not be much shock. Which is not to say that I’m not pulling for both of those far superior films to triumph over this steaming pile of hot nonsense.

http://collider.com/suicide-squad-b...ersocial&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

 

[Xrated48]

bloggers/critics hate that its doing so well

look at this article from collider the writer was probably seething seeing suicide squad do so well

http://collider.com/suicide-squad-b...ersocial&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Wow .

 

[kguillou]

Look, it boils down to this. If a movie has elements of fun and excitement, general audiences will cling to it. Normal audience goers go to the movies to laugh and have a good time. We always dog and rag on the Transformers movies but the reason for their success is simple: general audiences find those movies fun. We may hate them. We may mock their writing and mind numbing action. They may have 20% scores on RT. But at the end of the day, they are movies that mommys and daddies can take their kids to and they can all laugh at crazy Shia Leboef running away from giant robots fighting each other and explosions.

SS has FUN characters. The plot is flawed, the pacing is very off, the villain is generic, but at the end of the day, the audience is clinging to these characters, I think. The kids in my audience were laughing every time Croc opened his mouth. Ayer made these characters very likeable and fun to be around and I think thats whats going to carry this movie BO wise.

 

[Juan1193]

Why can't they use the 6 - 7 cuts they made already?

Lol that made me laugh so hard xD

 

[Greenlite]

China is still in the cards according to someone who lives there. He says that WB is currently editing the film to meet China's standards and it's being marketed there

Haha and then the Chinese audience gets to watch a better polished cut, damn it

 

[brandeezy89]

I agree on the characters factor, my cousin's co-worker told him that the movie is horrible and to look at the Forbes review for proof. We went on Monday to see it and after he said "WTF was wrong with the movie, I didn't think it was bad at all, actually i thought it was a good movie".