Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[KangConquers]

if cap opens at #2 in it's first week, that will be the nail in the coffin for how this year's Blist characters performed.

Captain America is not B-list.

And I'd rather see Cap open at 2 and do 65 million dollars than open at one and do 53 million like GL.

 

[chaseter]

Holy crap, an HP fan with reasoning.

Avada kedavra

 

[Doctor Jones]

By God!

 

[kedrell]

HP holiday releases tend to have better drops from OW to 2nd weekend. Even there, they've been increasing(HP7 dropped 60%). Summer HP films drop harder. I think with such a big opening HP8 is going to have a 65% drop in it's 2nd week. So even if it opens to $150M(very doubtful) it's likely just cross the $50M mark in weekend #2. Cap should do much better than that. I think Cap'll be #1 in it's opening weekend. It's hard to imagine though that it'll stay #1 for more than a week.

 

[Drizzle]

I think Cap'll be #1 in it's opening weekend. It's hard to imagine though that it'll stay #1 for more than a week.

It's possible that it might if Cowboys and Aliens flops. I really can't see Cowboys and Aliens pulling in more than $50 million opening weekend.

 

[kedrell]

I don't see C&A doing $50M OW either. $40M maybe which very well could send Cap to #2.

 

[mclay18]

Pretty sure it comes out on Wednesday and the 9 PM showing is like a midnight showing type thing.

Like a week ago, Paramount announced that some theaters will have 9 p.m. and midnight showings of TF3 on Tuesday. For example, we'll have a 9 p.m. showing of the 3D version plus a midnight show for that -- but no 2D showing at 9 p.m..

And I have a feeling Captain America will be the breakout superhero hit of 2011. It's marketed so well and all the stuff I'm hearing about it is great. It'll suffer in the shadow of HP8's second weekend (I'm equally excited for that too), but it'll likely have better legs.

 

[chaseter]

I wouldn't even be shocked if Harry Potter beats out Cowboys and Aliens that weekend with Cap at 1, Potter at 2, and C&A at 3. I just get this massive feeling that C&A is going to be way underwhelming box office wise. I see it getting 30-35 opening weekend. It will in no way get 50 million.

 

[Bunker]

I'm not as excited for C&A as I thought I would be. I mean, I love D Craig and the premise sounds entertaining, but the trailers just haven't interested me.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

You should never hold a candle to a book.

Also...all books are better than their movies. I used to say that but then I realized that they are two entirely different mediums. If you can take an 800 page book and write a script for a movie that has to be around 140 minutes without leaving anything out to make hardcore fans angry then you would be the most successful writer ever.

HOW DARE YOU BRING LOGIC ONTO THE HYPE!

But seriously, I hate when people compare books to movies. It's really rare that a movie is better than book or graphic novel, like Forrest Gump, or any of Mark Millar's books.

Captain America is not B-list.

Yeah he's not B-list domestically. I'd put him on the A-list. Everyone may not know his name like Batman, Superman, and Spider-man, but almost everyone can recognize who he is with the shield and costume in the US.

 

[Fanticon]

Cap vs. C&A caught in the s***storm that HP is creating for them...I say Cap wins.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Like a week ago, Paramount announced that some theaters will have 9 p.m. and midnight showings of TF3 on Tuesday. For example, we'll have a 9 p.m. showing of the 3D version plus a midnight show for that -- but no 2D showing at 9 p.m..

Which to me says there's some uneasiness on their part.

 

[Fanticon]

i never thought transformers was gonna do well...even if it does look better than TF2 it does look like more of the same to the general audiences. With 3D and Imax screens it definitely might reach higher numbers but I'm looking at this like POTC AWE, where people were left scratching thier heads after Dead Man's Chest. So the first Transformers movie and Pirates movie did over 300m...a huge success, then their sequels did 400+! An even bigger success, and then At World's End came out and barely topped the first movie's BO. This is what I see happening with Transfomers 3. They've marketed it as way too serious, and part of the fun at least of the 1st 2 Transformers movies was that there was a little bit of humor in those trailers.

 

[Iron_Stark]

your theory applies to films that aren't very good or have baggage.
All things being equal if one of these films is good in it's own right it will easily make it past 200 and if it's great it will dance around 300.

The problem is DC is hit or miss and marvel is consistently making enjoyable films.

Fox has so much bagge it hurts it's release even if they are good. Same will go for DareDevil and an Aronofski less Wolverine.

What theory? Its the truth, people want to act as though its easy to get to and past 200 mil when in reality only a handful of them have.

Kinda puts Iron Man 2 into prespective when people were calling it a dissapointment to almost a flop BO wise just because it didn't do Spider-Man 1 numbers when its very own sequel couldn't do that amount.

It'll also kinda show that superheroes are starting to wane.

They've been saying that for years, I remember the many times they were saying that in '08 before TDK and Iron Man came in #1 and #2 that year.

 

[Kalden11]

HP holiday releases tend to have better drops from OW to 2nd weekend. Even there, they've been increasing(HP7 dropped 60%). Summer HP films drop harder. I think with such a big opening HP8 is going to have a 65% drop in it's 2nd week. So even if it opens to $150M(very doubtful) it's likely just cross the $50M mark in weekend #2. Cap should do much better than that. I think Cap'll be #1 in it's opening weekend. It's hard to imagine though that it'll stay #1 for more than a week.

Even with the addition of 3D & the return of the fans?
I think you minimizes the second weekend of Potter, he will not lose 65%. At worst 60, but not as much, it would be disastrous if it happens, but hey I think so.

 

[Doctor Jones]

And they probably said it when B&R came out. If that wasn't a strong indication for the waning of comic book films, then I odn't know what is.

People aren't tired of comic book films. This summer is overcrowded and full of options and it doesn't help that most of these films are in 3D.

 

[mclay18]

Which to me says there's some uneasiness on their part.

Paramount is going apes**t over the 3D thing. They're booking 3D screens for a 4 week guarantee for TF3, which pushes Cars 2 and Harry Potter 7.2 out of valuable 3D screens. Not to mention Nikki Finke reported that Michael Bay's representatives are calling theater owners to turn up the brightness on the 3D projectors and such. The latter isn't a bad thing, but hogging all the 3D screens and giving them to Captain America when it comes out is foolish.

Again, am I the only one who thinks Captain America could be a bigger hit than Thor and X-Men: First Class domestically? There's a wave of patriotism riding off Osama's demise, people like what they see of the trailer, and CA is one of Marvel's well-known heroes.

 

[Marvin]

Captain America is not B-list.

And I'd rather see Cap open at 2 and do 65 million dollars than open at one and do 53 million like GL.

no he's actually A list...my mistake.
He might even have Superman levels of clout...
I think the marketing for this film is strong, strong enough to be confusing people.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Again, am I the only one who thinks Captain America could be a bigger hit than Thor and X-Men: First Class domestically? There's a wave of patriotism riding off Osama's demise, people like what they see of the trailer, and CA is one of Marvel's well-known heroes.

God no. I've long thought Captain America would be the biggest hit of the comic-book properties this year and the only one to hit blockbuster status ($200 million and up gross) stateside. Those two trailers, for me, has cemented that feeling.

 

[RedSkull]

Cap is most def not B List. I'd love to see him out gross the Iron Man films. Doubtful, but it would be amazing.

As it stands now, I think that Cars 2 or Harry Potter will top the summer, and either of them have a fair shot at the all time highest grossing top ten (which Pirates 4 just recently made it into)

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Cars 2 will not make top 10. It'll make 700M but nothing past that with Transformers and Potter coming out.

 

[Drizzle]

Cars 2 will not make top 10. It'll make 700M but nothing past that with Transformers and Potter coming out.

Cars 2 will do okay for the next few weeks. Parents aren't going to take their four year olds to see Transformers and Potter. It's too intense for them.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

The Parents are gonna wanna go see Transformers and the 8-16 year olds will wanna see potter.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Cap is most def not B List. I'd love to see him out gross the Iron Man films. Doubtful, but it would be amazing.

As it stands now, I think that Cars 2 or Harry Potter will top the summer, and either of them have a fair shot at the all time highest grossing top ten (which Pirates 4 just recently made it into)

To paraphrase another poster here, He's A-list the same way Wonder woman is. They know the name they know the costume but nothing else really. Cap America to a lot of the GA is still thought of as this corny-ish super patriotic superhero. I don't think i've seen anyone wear a cap america halloween costume non ironically.

Iron-man was b-list himself but had a great star and great trailer buzz, so that's enough to get over any b-list issues. If Captain America gets great reviews it could push it to some good success but it needs really good reviews for that to happen imo.

 

[Liam_H]

I could be wrong but I thought TF3 was tracking to open with about $150-175 million in its first 6 days? They also have it another week before Potter takes over so its gonna be pretty big.