Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[Marvin]

they've forced their opening audience to see the film in perfectly conditioned and they hope word of mouth from that will be positive enough to fuel their first weekend opening. Without a doubt it will be spoken as the most "summer" movie experience film as of yet and that will either yield an impressive and return audience or it will just diffuse their opening 5 days.

I think it's a interesting new studio gamble and I'm curious to see how it all plays out. It probably would have worked wonders if this was pre ROTF. But you never know.

Cap is as a list as Iron Man was before his movie.

 

[KangConquers]

Cap is as a list as Iron Man was before his movie.

If this is truly your opinion, it greatly discredits just about everything else you say; Cap is quite well known, especially among people north of 20.

Before the 90s, Cap was Marvel's #2, #3 at worst. He was a famous and iconic character. The grim dark leanings of the 1990s put him on the back-burner a bit, but that doesn't make him a character with no previous fame.

 

[Spider-Fan]

they've forced their opening audience to see the film in perfectly conditioned and they hope word of mouth from that will be positive enough to fuel their first weekend opening. Without a doubt it will be spoken as the most "summer" movie experience film as of yet and that will either yield an impressive and return audience or it will just diffuse their opening 5 days.

I think it's a interesting new studio gamble and I'm curious to see how it all plays out. It probably would have worked wonders if this was pre ROTF. But you never know.

Cap is as a list as Iron Man was before his movie.

Cap is more iconic than Iron Man was pre-movie easily.

 

[Electrix]

Superman was iconic before Superman Returns. Didn't mean much.

 

[Marvin]

Cap is more iconic than Iron Man was pre-movie easily.

And who said anything about Iconic.
DC's Captain Marvel is probably more iconic than Cyclops or Xavier, but that doesn't make him more A list than them.

How many people knew about Xavier before the new movies?

These properties are like celebrity. Blake Lively is an A list celebrity, She may not be as iconic as history's famous pin up starlets or as famous as Liz Taylor, but you can bet you ass she's going to be the A list female lead WB puts in her next film.

sure Cap was more "iconic" than the "iron man"
but they were both b list heroes in the eyes of the current movie going generation.

If this is truly your opinion, it greatly discredits just about everything else you say; Cap is quite well known, especially among people north of 20.

Before the 90s, Cap was Marvel's #2, #3 at worst. He was a famous and iconic character. The grim dark leanings of the 1990s put him on the back-burner a bit, but that doesn't make him a character with no previous fame.

Ya, well your avatar kinda level's the playing field on credibility if you ask me.

why are we talking about a time before the 90's and the current movie going generation? Paul Newman may have been the man before the 90's but...etc.
Moreover I never said he didn't have fame. I said he wasn't A list plain and simple.

Before this year, Punisher was probably more A list in Hollywood than this dude.

All Cap needed a few good Paul Dini Cartoons and well received film and this would probably be a non issue. I actually still remember that awesome 90's Ironman show. Hulk and FF as well.
Cap?

 

[Spider-Fan]

And who said anything about Iconic.
DC's Captain Marvel is probably more iconic than Cyclops or Xavier, but that doesn't make him more A list than them.

How many people know about Xavier before the new movies?

These properties are like celebrity. Blake Lively is an A list celebrity, She may not be as iconic as history's famous pin up starlets or as famous as Liz Taylor, but you can bet you ass she's going to be the A list female lead WB puts in her next film.

sure Cap was more "iconic" than the "iron man"
but they were both b list heroes in the eyes of the current movie going generation.

If you asked random guy on street prior to the Iron Man movie, chances are they wouldn't recognize the name. With Cap, many more people would recognize the name. They might not know his origin or anything, but they'd know general details. This puts him above Iron Man as far as recognition pre-movie. Does this mean Cap will make more than Iron Man? No, and that wasn't my argument. My point is Cap is a bigger name prior to his first film. And he is.

 

[:eek:]

Looks like Cars 2 will open with around $71 million. Green Lantern looks to have a huge drop, around 65%

 

[Marvin]

If you asked random guy on street prior to the Iron Man movie, chances are they wouldn't recognize the name. With Cap, many more people would recognize the name. They might not know his origin or anything, but they'd know general details. This puts him above Iron Man as far as recognition pre-movie. Does this mean Cap will make more than Iron Man? No, and that wasn't my argument. My point is Cap is a bigger name prior to his first film. And he is.

I never said that was your argument..

 

[KangConquers]

Looks like Cars 2 will open with around $71 million. Green Lantern looks to have a huge drop, around 65%

I called that Green Lantern would be the worst performing of the 150 Million plus budget group...I just never suspected it would be this bad.

 

[BestGirl]

If you asked random guy on street prior to the Iron Man movie, chances are they wouldn't recognize the name. With Cap, many more people would recognize the name. They might not know his origin or anything, but they'd know general details. This puts him above Iron Man as far as recognition pre-movie. Does this mean Cap will make more than Iron Man? No, and that wasn't my argument. My point is Cap is a bigger name prior to his first film. And he is.

I had certainly never even heard of Iron Man prior to his movie. I at least knew who Cap was, even if I didn't know anything about him.

 

[Marvin]

I had certainly never even heard of Iron Man prior to his movie. I at least knew who Cap was, even if I didn't know anything about him.

The best argument for Cap's A list status if I've ever heard one.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

So, Green Lantern dropped 72%....

It's done.

 

[JP]

Massive drop for GL according to deadline.

 

[Doctor Jones]

God, I don't think any of us here predicted this. Despite the film sucking, I feel bad for the cast and Campbell if he did have problems with the studio.

I mean why should we be happy? We shouldn't. This is never good when a comic book movie fails.

 

[RedSkull]

No we shouldn't be happy about it. In fact I feel like most reviews were a tad too scathing. It's hard to introduce a character the general public knows little about, especially when you have to try and work in comic characters for the comic fans to satisfy that audience as well. GL was imbalanced because it tried to be a bit too ambitious I think and missed its mark. Even so, the fact that people are not bothering to see it is kind of depressing.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

God, I don't think any of us here predicted this. Despite the film sucking, I feel bad for the cast and Campbell if he did have problems with the studio.

I mean why should we be happy? We shouldn't. This is never good when a comic book movie fails.

I think bad comic book films failing is a good thing. We want good films.

 

[dark_b]

God, I don't think any of us here predicted this. Despite the film sucking, I feel bad for the cast and Campbell if he did have problems with the studio.

I mean why should we be happy? We shouldn't. This is never good when a comic book movie fails.

i watched a lot of movies and interviews in my life. i think i know when an actor makes a movie for the paycheck. to me it looks like Reynolds and Blake did this movie for the paycheck. and they got payed even if the movie bombs. the same with Cambell. they are not the enemy but also not the victims.

if Inception would bombed then i would feel sorry for Nolan. or if ET would bomb for Spielberg. IMO

 

[flickchick85]

This is never good when a comic book movie fails.

I disagree. If it's a bad comic book movie, then I want it to fail, because otherwise Hollywood will be encouraged to spend more money dishing out more of the same "safe" lazy crap (I'm looking at you, Fantastic Four), rather than taking chances on bold, more expensive, riskier projects.

That said, I don't think GL was bad enough to fall under that umbrella. It was mediocrity that so obviously could have been great if they'd made a few different decisions, which made it that much more disappointing. I wish it had done well enough to get a sequel, because I feel like most of its problems (miscasting aside) could have been fixed with a second try.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I don't think that's worked. I don't think studios have learned the lessons yet. We've had many bad comic book films throughout the years and that doesn't seem to get us anywhere. They just suck and that's it. Even when TDK and IM came out in the same year. You would have thought they raised the standard, and they did -- yet we still have **** comic book films. Now since TDK and IM, we've gotton Wolverine and GL, that's two ****** comic book films, but they're still ****.

Every comic book movie from the get go deserves to be great. I could say it deserved it -- especially Catwoman or B&R. DC or Marvel, their success is the other's success. But when the other fails, it's not good.

WB, the same studio that brought us TDK, churned out GL. You would think they would have treated it with the same thought and care but no.

 

[Marvin]

I know so many people that thought it was enjoyable. These very same people hated something like say Air Bender. Now of course bender scored much lower on RT but I do think there was a bit of a hyperbole floating around for the film.

Maybe next time they'd better do it right.
Training day in space ala first flight..these are cops after all.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Mind you, these are just the estimates off Friday's numbers. My money would be on a bigger drop come tomorrow and when the actuals are released Monday afternoon.

 

[flickchick85]

I don't think that's worked. I don't think studios have learned the lessons yet.

Well no, there's never gonna be one instance that's gonna teach them a lesson. It has to be a constant reminder. Therefore I want all bad comic book movies to do poorly, and all good comic book movies to do well.

I agree that we should want all comic book movies to be great films, but that's not what I was responding to. You said we shouldn't want them to do poorly even if they suck (at least that was my understanding of what you wrote), which is what I was disagreeing with. Regardless of genre, I'll be rooting for a lazy studio turd to fail every time. It's a victory for those passion projects that always have to fight tooth-and-nail to even get a greenlight, imo.

 

[Marvin]

Green Lantern was actually a studio listening to fanboys imo, considering they alternative.
I wonder what kind of "lesson" we were hoping to give them.

 

[flickchick85]

In my post earlier up, I said that I didn't think GL fell into that category.

But did they listen to fanboys? That's never a good idea either, imo, though I'm not sure that's what happened with GL.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Green Lantern was actually a studio listening to fanboys imo, considering they alternative.
I wonder what kind of "lesson" we were hoping to give them.

They couldn't balance pleasing the fanboys and the GA.