Summer 2011 box office predictions

[:eek:]

Some early predictions (domestic grosses only) from Boxoffice.com for releases in May:

Thor: $208 million
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides: $300 million
Kung Fu Panda 2: $320 million
The Hangover Part II: $245 million

 

[redhawk23]

I dont think the hangover is going to make as much as the first one.

 

[Dark Victory]

Pirates of the Caribbean, Thor and Captain America are going to have ho hum returns.

 

[DACrowe]

I won't try to predict numbers but who will be on top is easy:

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II is going to lay waste to EVERYTHING this summer. I didn't even like DHPI, nor am I dying to see Part II....but it is going to break the bank.




2. Pirates of the Caribbean 4. Were the last two crap? Sure were. However, nobody minds because everyone loves Johnny Depp. And before someone says audiences may be fatigued, look at his last kid-friendly fantasy movie. Alice in Wonderland made $1 billion and he was a ginger in clown makeup the whole movie. Women and tweens alike actually find Jack Sparrow sexy and guys like sword fights and CGI battles. This is going to be a monster.

As for other films:

-Aliens and Cowboys will be the surprise hit of the summer (kind of like the first Pirates of the Caribbean film).
-The Hangover Part II will make a ton of money it's first weekend and drop off when audiences realize it's the same exact plot (I'm stoked to see it, btw).
-Transformers 3 will not do as TF2, but still make enough money to cause us to lose faith in American audiences's intelligence for another summer.

As for the superhero thing...four superhero movies in one summer? At least one will have to go bust. I think Captain America will do the best domestically of the four (though I can't see how it can play well at all overseas). Thor also most likely will be a hit, because it's the first blockbuster of the summer and has no real competition upon release. Plus everyone loves Natalie Portman right now which gives it crossover appeal beyond fanboys. Of the remaining two, I suspect a non-Wolverine X-Men film after two duds will cause XFC to underperform if not straight-up bomb. GL is on the line and can go either way. Renyolds should help sell the movie, but he may be just one superhero too many who doesn't have the WWII edge that looks to be selling well with American audiences for Cap....btw of those four the only one I'm really excited to see is XFC. I'm just trying to be honest in my predictions for the summer.

 

[DACrowe]

double

 

[obin_gam]

How the final result will be when the summer blockbusters all have had their chance:

1. Harry Potter
2. Pirates 4
3. Thor
4. Transformers 3
5. Captain America (this will win the summer in the US but not in the rest of the world)
6. Green Lantern
7. X-men First Class
8. Cowboys...

 

[matrix_ghost]

May
Thor : 200-250 million
POTC 4 : 300-320 million
The Hangover part 2 : 170-200 million
Kung Fu Panda 2 : 200-240 million

June
X-Men First Class : 180-200 million
Super 8 : 100 - 120 million
Green Lantern : 250-270 million
Cars 2 : 250 million

July
Transformers 3 : 400-420 million
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 : 300-350 million
Captain America : 150-180 million
Cowboys and Aliens : 200-250 million

 

[MadVillainy]

HP7 is going to be the biggest thing. I dont see how someone can think otherwise. It probably will even be the biggest film of the year

 

[matrix_ghost]

HP7 is going to be the biggest thing. I dont see how someone can think otherwise. It probably will even be the biggest film of the year

Just going by international numbers , i do agree with this.
But if you count the domestic numers , not so much. While Potter is a juggernaut that continues to get better (reviews) with each sequel yet for some weird reason they just don't set the BO on fire.
To date only 2 movies have broken the 300 million mark . The first one and the 6th one. Mind you the 6th one also had the advantage of expectations and IMAX.
If WB can manage to convert the last Potter in 3d in time for the release , i do think that it'll go beyond 300 million. But more then 400 million domestic ? Difficult to say. Even if it's the last one.

 

[RJMacready]

Potter is going to destroy the competition, it's really not even a question. They're a HUGE franchise.

 

[batman11]

If WB can manage to convert the last Potter in 3d in time for the release , i do think that it'll go beyond 300 million. But more then 400 million domestic ? Difficult to say. Even if it's the last one.

WB has confirmed (unless they change their minds at the last minute again, but I think that's doubtful this time) that it will be in both 3D and IMAX 3D. That will add some serious coin.

 

[matrix_ghost]

WB has confirmed (unless they change their minds at the last minute again, but I think that's doubtful this time) that it will be in both 3D and IMAX 3D. That will add some serious coin.

The bold part is what worries me. And if they succeed , it'll add some serious coin. But not alot . Don't forget that Potter is sandwiched between TF3 and Cap. Meaning that it'll have to compete for 3d screens .

 

[Doctor Jones]

May
Thor : 200-250 million
POTC 4 : 300-320 million
The Hangover part 2 : 170-200 million
Kung Fu Panda 2 : 200-240 million

June
X-Men First Class : 180-200 million
Super 8 : 100 - 120 million
Green Lantern : 250-270 million
Cars 2 : 250 million

July
Transformers 3 : 400-420 million
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 : 300-350 million
Captain America : 150-180 million
Cowboys and Aliens : 200-250 million

This sounds about right. Although I might switch Cap and Cowboys around and lessen TF's grosses in the 300's or so.

I'm awful with predictions but the only problem that Cap has is HP. This is going to be a monster. It could reach a billion. You could say the same audiences who turned out for the first part will come out for this, but there will probably be just a bit more.

 

[chaseter]

No way is Transformers 3 going to make over 400 million.

 

[Matt]

The box office champ this summer will likely be Harry Potter. I suppose that Pirates could give it a run for its money with good word of mouth, but I think the last two films have left enough people jaded that it will not beat Potter. It'll make a **** load of money, mind you. But it won't be the champ. Potter is the movie to beat this year.

TF3 will do good. Probably 4th overall.

I predict a bad summer for Marvel. I think both Captain America and Thor will underperform. They won't do terribly, but I think they will probably do Incredible Hulk to Superman Returns numbers. The numbers won't be bad enough to be considered a bomb, but they won't be considered successful either. The studio will try to paint them as a success, all the while quietly nixing plans for sequels and just putting focus on The Avengers.

I think that Thor will out do Cap. At first I wasn't sure if they could sell a character like Thor to middle America, but I think it'll work on some level. I think good word of mouth will get it to 200 million domestic. It has the better release date with two competition free weeks, anyhow. Then again, maybe 200 million is all Marvel is counting on for a lesser known property about a Norse god. Maybe this summer won't be too bad for Marvel. Until July.

Cap on the other hand looks like any other movie Joe Johnston has ever made. Great atmospheres, looks cool in trailers, but that's because his movies are essentially two hour long trailers: action heavy and void of any heart or character (keep in mind, this is the guy who learned everything he knows from George Lucas). It'll open to mixed reviews and word of mouth and due to the fact that it is squeezed between Potter, Cowboys and Aliens (which could be a suprise hit), and the Smurfs (which may attract the kiddie audience) it will fizzle out around 150-170.

X-Men: First Class will pull in numbers slightly less than Wolverine as it does not have Hugh Jackman (or any major star) carryng it. 160-165 would be my prediction (domestically). Then again, it doesn't have much competition for two weeks so maybe it can break 200?

Green Lantern....I think its hard to predict. It looks corny and cliche with way too much CGI but that is the type of thing people eat up.

Hangover 2 will do well, but not Hangover well.

Cars could be a dark horse to beat Potter, but unlike most Pixar movies, I cannot see it attracting non-children. That'll hurt it.

Cowboys and Aliens is impossible to predict, with good word of mouth it could be huge....or it could flop entirely. Too hard to say at this point.

Super 8, I think will bomb and struggle to reach 100 million. Though it will develop a cult following in later years. The studio should've saved it for August.

My prediction for the top five:

1) Potter
2) Pirates
3) Cars
4) Transformers
5) Tough to say....either Kung Fu Panda 2, Thor, or GL.

 

[Matt]

I won't try to predict numbers but who will be on top is easy:

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II is going to lay waste to EVERYTHING this summer. I didn't even like DHPI, nor am I dying to see Part II....but it is going to break the bank.




2. Pirates of the Caribbean 4. Were the last two crap? Sure were. However, nobody minds because everyone loves Johnny Depp. And before someone says audiences may be fatigued, look at his last kid-friendly fantasy movie. Alice in Wonderland made $1 billion and he was a ginger in clown makeup the whole movie. Women and tweens alike actually find Jack Sparrow sexy and guys like sword fights and CGI battles. This is going to be a monster.

As for other films:

-Aliens and Cowboys will be the surprise hit of the summer (kind of like the first Pirates of the Caribbean film).
-The Hangover Part II will make a ton of money it's first weekend and drop off when audiences realize it's the same exact plot (I'm stoked to see it, btw).
-Transformers 3 will not do as TF2, but still make enough money to cause us to lose faith in American audiences's intelligence for another summer.

As for the superhero thing...four superhero movies in one summer? At least one will have to go bust. I think Captain America will do the best domestically of the four (though I can't see how it can play well at all overseas). Thor also most likely will be a hit, because it's the first blockbuster of the summer and has no real competition upon release. Plus everyone loves Natalie Portman right now which gives it crossover appeal beyond fanboys. Of the remaining two, I suspect a non-Wolverine X-Men film after two duds will cause XFC to underperform if not straight-up bomb. GL is on the line and can go either way. Renyolds should help sell the movie, but he may be just one superhero too many who doesn't have the WWII edge that looks to be selling well with American audiences for Cap....btw of those four the only one I'm really excited to see is XFC. I'm just trying to be honest in my predictions for the summer.

I disagree. I think that GL is coming out at the perfect time to possibly be successful. Thor may wet people's appetites for super hero movies, and considering my high level of faith in Kenneth Branagh, leaving them wanting more. Meanwhile, X-Men has no big actors to attract a crowd and will PROBABLY get bad word of mouth, so they may look elsewhere to fulfill that craving....Green Lantern. But by the time Cap comes along, sandwiched between Potter, and Cowboys and Aliens people will be burnt out with super heroes and watch those two films instead. I think that Captain America will need tremendous word of mouth to be a hit. And I don't think Joe Johnston can make a movie that garners the W.O.M. that is needed.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Pirates 4 and X-Men: First Class will under-perform.

I've literally heard people groan when the On Stranger Tides trailer plays. That franchise has had its time in the sun but like Shrek refuses to walk away until the general public vehemently says "No more!" Take a look at what happened to Shrek Forever After last May and that's what you're looking at for Pirates. What would normally be deemed a solid gross, will be viewed as a disappointment considering the heights that franchise once hit.

As for First Class, it's very simple. No Hugh Jackman/Wolverine, the retro-60s angle and the last two films were very unpopular (i.e. opened big, but plummeted because of poor word-of-mouth). Without question, it'll be the lowest grossing X-Men film.

Harry Potter & Deathly Hallows - Part II is the no brainer of no brainers. It will own the summer and year overall (domestic and worldwide). Everyone wants to see the final battle between Harry and Voldemort and [BLACKOUT]especially the coda with them grown-up and their own children.[/BLACKOUT] I'll be shocked if this doesn't cross the $1 billion mark.

Regardless of what I think of the Transformers series (****ing hated the first and refused to watch Revenge of the Fallen), pretty sure the general public still likes them, and that Superbowl TV spot for Dark of the Moon still had males aged 18-49 (the key demographic) drooling at that footage. Won't reach $400 million again, but it'll do around the first one and sit solidly as the #2 earner of the summer.

 

[Matt]

Pirates 4 and X-Men: First Class will under-perform.

I've literally heard people groan when the On Stranger Tides trailer plays. That franchise has had its time in the sun but like Shrek refuses to walk away until the general public vehemently says "No more!" Take a look at what happened to Shrek Forever After last May and that's what you're looking at for Pirates. What would normally be deemed a solid gross, will be viewed as a disappointment considering the heights that franchise once hit.

As for First Class, it's very simple. No Hugh Jackman/Wolverine, the retro-60s angle and the last two films were very unpopular (i.e. opened big, but plummeted because of poor word-of-mouth). Without question, it'll be the lowest grossing X-Men film.

Harry Potter & Deathly Hallows - Part II is the no brainer of no brainers. It will own the summer and year overall (domestic and worldwide). Everyone wants to see the final battle between Harry and Voldemort and [BLACKOUT]especially the coda with them grown-up and their own children.[/BLACKOUT] I'll be shocked if this doesn't cross the $1 billion mark.

Shrek Forever After was a terrible movie though. I think with good word of mouth, the public could forgive Captain Jack. Of course, that's an if. I personally think that two hours of Jack as the central focus will leave the audience detatched and bored after the first 15 minutes though. Unbearable though they may have been towards the end, Will and Elizabeth were a necessary evil of the Pirates franchise. It gave the audience someone to relate to and kept the films grounded. I don't think that this one has that.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Shrek Forever After was a terrible movie though. I think with good word of mouth, the public could forgive Captain Jack. Of course, that's an if. I personally think that two hours of Jack as the central focus will leave the audience detatched and bored after the first 15 minutes though. Unbearable though they may have been towards the end, Will and Elizabeth were a necessary evil of the Pirates franchise. It gave the audience someone to relate to and kept the films grounded. I don't think that this one has that.

It is very telling, my friend, that they're not going for Memorial Day. That's because Hangover Part II is all over that date and I guarantee you they're hoping having Pirates 4's second weekend be on that holiday will result in a softer drop because people will be off work (read: not me).

 

[Matt]

One thing that I think will hurt Pirates is that Kung Fu Panda 2 comes out a week later, alongside Hangover 2. So any hope that Pirates had for being the family alternative for memorial day weekend is out the door.

 

[Drizzle]

I think "Harry Potter" will come out on top for the summer. It's the last one, it's in 3D, it's inevitable that it's going to be a box office juggernaut.

Rounding out the top three I think will be "Pirates of the Caribbean" and "Transformers". Even though the last films in those franchises may have left a bad taste for a lot of moviegoers, they'll still flock to the theaters in droves, especially Johnny Depp fangirls for POTC.

"Hangover II" might make more money than the first. It'll definitely be the biggest comedy this summer. "Cars 2" and "Kung Fu Panda 2" will be box office monsters.

"Cowboys and Aliens" and "Super 8" are the only real possible flops.

The superhero movies are a real toss up for me. I have no idea which one will come out on top. Sure, "Thor" has got the first weekend of the summer, but the average moviegoer doesn't really know who he is. He doesn't have the name appeal like Batman or Spider-Man, which could hurt its box office. "X-Men: First Class" could stand a decent chance, as its got a good marketing campaign kicking in, same for "Captain America", but that one has a disadvantage of being released around the same time as "Harry Potter". I think "Green Lantern" will do okay solely because of Ryan Reynolds.

My guesses:

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
3. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
4. Cars 2

Everything after that, I have no idea what to expect, but I'm sure these will round out the rest of the top ten:

Thor
X-Men: First Class
The Hangover II
Kung Fu Panda 2
Green Lantern
Captain America

 

[DACrowe]

I disagree. I think that GL is coming out at the perfect time to possibly be successful. Thor may wet people's appetites for super hero movies, and considering my high level of faith in Kenneth Branagh, leaving them wanting more. Meanwhile, X-Men has no big actors to attract a crowd and will PROBABLY get bad word of mouth, so they may look elsewhere to fulfill that craving....Green Lantern. But by the time Cap comes along, sandwiched between Potter, and Cowboys and Aliens people will be burnt out with super heroes and watch those two films instead. I think that Captain America will need tremendous word of mouth to be a hit. And I don't think Joe Johnston can make a movie that garners the W.O.M. that is needed.

I disagree because I don't read GL as well as you do.

I do think Thor will do solid ($200+ million, maybe even $300 million if the WOM is amazing) numbers as the summer opener. I agree that XFC won't do that well because of no big name actors, a damaged franchise from the previous two duds and no Wolverine. However, I do not think the WOM will be bad. I think what can save it is the WOM. Matthew Vaughn made Stardust and Kick-Ass. Two films I expected nothing from and was blindsided by how brilliant they are. I expect nothing less than a grin-inducing crowd pleaser from XFC and the trailer confirms this.

However, I just think the bad taste the franchise has left in peoples' mouth will keep it from succeeding. Green Lantern still looks overly pedestrian to me. I know they released that fan service 4-minute thing. But most people won't watch that online and I still think the movie will be a big goofy comedy despite the selective editing of that "trailer." I don't see the audience getting excited about this because it looks like Ryan Renyolds in your typical Spider-Man/Iron Man superhero movie (except with space) in the mainstream trailers.

Captain America may be a bad movie for the reasons you've stated (it's hard to say). But the WWII theme makes the trailer epic and it is getting a lot of buzz in the mainstream. I think its competition will keep it from being a huge hit. But $200-$225 million domestic seems reasonable. Quality has nothing to do with box office, though I hope Cap is a fine film.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

One thing that I think will hurt Pirates is that Kung Fu Panda 2 comes out a week later, alongside Hangover 2. So any hope that Pirates had for being the family alternative for memorial day weekend is out the door.

Speaking of which, Kung Fu Panda 2 could end up being the #3 grosser. It has all the qualifying factors (like Pirates 2, Dark Knight, Star Trek 2 next summer, etc.) in that its following up a very, very popular first movie that played across-the-board and a prime release date.

 

[Hush]

I can see anyone of the 4 superhero movies coming in second behind Potter. I do not think Super 8 will bomb simply because the public (non trekkers) really like Abrams Star Trek and he has alot of appeal to the GA just with how much he is out there and Spielberg helped produce it so you know the marketing will be everywhere. Hell it already is.

 

[DACrowe]

Pirates 4 and X-Men: First Class will under-perform.

I've literally heard people groan when the On Stranger Tides trailer plays. That franchise has had its time in the sun but like Shrek refuses to walk away until the general public vehemently says "No more!" Take a look at what happened to Shrek Forever After last May and that's what you're looking at for Pirates. What would normally be deemed a solid gross, will be viewed as a disappointment considering the heights that franchise once hit.

As for First Class, it's very simple. No Hugh Jackman/Wolverine, the retro-60s angle and the last two films were very unpopular (i.e. opened big, but plummeted because of poor word-of-mouth). Without question, it'll be the lowest grossing X-Men film.

Harry Potter & Deathly Hallows - Part II is the no brainer of no brainers. It will own the summer and year overall (domestic and worldwide). Everyone wants to see the final battle between Harry and Voldemort and [BLACKOUT]especially the coda with them grown-up and their own children.[/BLACKOUT] I'll be shocked if this doesn't cross the $1 billion mark.

Regardless of what I think of the Transformers series (****ing hated the first and refused to watch Revenge of the Fallen), pretty sure the general public still likes them, and that Superbowl TV spot for Dark of the Moon still had males aged 18-49 (the key demographic) drooling at that footage. Won't reach $400 million again, but it'll do around the first one and sit solidly as the #2 earner of the summer.

Agreed about XFC (though I think it looks great) as well as HP8 and TF3.

But I disagree on POTC4. While the last two were bad and it's been almost five years (and 2/3 of the leads aren't returning)....it has one thing that will make it a hit: Johnny Depp.

As I said, if he can turn Alice in Wonderland into a $1 billion hit when he was a ginger in clown make-up the whole movie, he can still be a big hit as Jack Sparrow. I don't think he'll do as well as DMC (the franchise's height) or even AWE. But crossing $300 million domestic and at least $700 million WW is a given, in my opinion.