Terminator Salvation: Box Office Prediction/Discussion

[Doctor Jones]

Yeah unfortunately. Stupid yet again on WB's part. GL can OWN the whole month of December. By releasing it with an assload of new comic book films with characters people already know about, GL will get lost in there. In order for a second tier hero to make alot of money, separate from Spider-Man and the Avengers!

 

[Lighthouse]

I think everyone has seriously overestimated Christian Bale's star power.

 

[Lord Blackbolt]

They are not on the book for Terminator Salvation, at least not that much since it is more Halcyon. But Watchmen was a bad business decision. As a fan I didn't mind the idea of a adaptation, but it is incredibly niche - with the wrong expectation of results. Speedracer was a bad idea plain and simple.

I think WB needs to do less big tent poles film but more undersized ones (lower budgets) that is more tightly targeted niches.

What I think will happen is...the movie will probably break even worldwide...and Halcyon will probably sell the rights to some other studio...and by that time...Arnold will have ended his run and will probably be offered a bigger role in the next sequel or......

Crazy as it sounds....how awesome would it be if Cameron got the rights back and did a Future war movie to end them all.

 

[Paradoxium]

I think everyone has seriously overestimated Christian Bale's star power.

Studios won't make the same mistake.

Nowadays, the only true draw is Will Smith.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

But you could agree that the trend of 1-2 flops per year can't be considered a routine. You should admit that the flop of Terminator Salvation was totally unexpected: Terminator+Christian Bale (the WB's golden boy) + a budget of more than $200m.

Although it's not doing awesome, I wouldn't be calling Salvation a flop. Like Watchmen earlier this year, it's a major box-office under-performer. And every studio has "1-2 flops per year!" Why is it different with WB? Because you don't like them?

Seriously, you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Flop is too harsh a word. Huge disappointment sums it up nicely.

 

[Evil Twin]

Males from 16 and older.

Wolverine doesn't sell as many comic books as Spider-Man does any given month. Wolverine doesn't have solo cartoons. He doesn't have a daily newspaper strip. And his movies, solo or otherwise, don't gross as much as Spider-Man's movies.

 

[redfirebird2008]

If they bother making any sequels, they will have to slash the budget in half. $200 million is a ridiculous amount of money to spend on this movie in the first place considering the previous entry in the series only made $150ish million in North America. I would think a $200 million budget should be reserved for a movie with guaranteed success (at least $500 million worldwide). Examples of this would be the Pirates, James Bond, Spider-Man, and Transformers franchises.

 

[Episode29]

It's not a disaster. I should get to around 120-130 million domestic, and make up the rest overseas.

I wouldn't hold your breath for a sequel though.

 

[Episode29]

I think everyone has seriously overestimated Christian Bale's star power.

Very true. The man is a respected actor, but not a huge draw. For him, it's all about the film he's attached to.

 

[redfirebird2008]

It's not a disaster. I should get to around 120-130 million domestic, and make up the rest overseas.

I wouldn't hold your breath for a sequel though.

Make up the rest? The movie needs to make at least $350 million worldwide just to get the budget back. The studios don't get anywhere near 100% of the revenue. The theaters get a huge chunk of it.

 

[Episode29]

Make up the rest? The movie needs to make at least $350 million worldwide just to get the budget back. The studios don't get anywhere near 100% of the revenue. The theaters get a huge chunk of it.

That's true, but international should do around 100-150 million, and then DVD sales should allow them to limp to a recoup. It won't be a victory by any stretch of the imagaination, but they probably won't lose any money in the longer term.

 

[redfirebird2008]

That's true, but international should do around 100-150 million, and then DVD sales should allow them to limp to a recoup. It won't be a victory by any stretch of the imagaination, but they probably won't lose any money in the longer term.

Depends on how much they spent on marketing. Plus, the studios get a better percentage from the domestic gross than they do overseas, so the disappointment here in North America is a pretty big blow to their chance at making a profit. Batman Begins had a $150 million budget, made $371 million worldwide, and barely made its cost back at the box office due to the profit-sharing breakdown with the theaters and the fact that it had around a $75 million marketing budget. It has been a huge hit on DVD (one of the top 35 sellers on DVD) so they have made quite a bit of money on it since its theatrical run, and obviously it spawned a massively successful sequel. But Terminator Salvation doesn't seem to have the kind of audience reception to sell DVD's at the pace that BB did. I'll be shocked if we get any sequels, which sucks because this movie felt like a cliffhanger for a much better storyline. The Marcus Wright story was effing pointless and just a way to set up the sequels.

 

[Episode29]

Depends on how much they spent on marketing. Plus, the studios get a better percentage from the domestic gross than they do overseas, so the disappointment here in North America is a pretty big blow to their chance at making a profit. Batman Begins had a $150 million budget, made $371 million worldwide, and barely made its cost back at the box office due to the profit-sharing breakdown with the theaters and the fact that it had around a $75 million marketing budget. It has been a huge hit on DVD (one of the top 35 sellers on DVD) so they have made quite a bit of money on it since its theatrical run, and obviously it spawned a massively successful sequel. But Terminator Salvation doesn't seem to have the kind of audience reception to sell DVD's at the pace that BB did. I'll be shocked if we get any sequels, which sucks because this movie felt like a cliffhanger for a much better storyline. The Marcus Wright story was effing pointless and just a way to set up the sequels.

There won't be any sequels in the forseeable future.

Trust me, when you factor in DVDs and ancilleries, Salvation will eventually break even. It'll be a long-distance run as opposed to a sprint though.

I have a lawyer friend who works with film studios (he worked with Fox on Live Free Or Die Hard) who was telling me that the big studio's manipulate the insurance and finances (through dummy corporations and such) of their films so extensively that, unless we're talkin' Speed Racer or something, they always break even on paper. I thought that was interesting.

 

[redfirebird2008]

There won't be any sequels in the forseeable future.

Trust me, when you factor in DVDs and ancilleries, Salvation will eventually break even. It'll be a long-distance run as opposed to a sprint though.

I have a lawyer friend who works with film studios (he worked with Fox on Live Free Or Die Hard) who was telling me that the big studio's manipulate the insurance and finances (through dummy corporations and such) of their films so extensively that, unless we're talkin' Speed Racer or something, they always break even on paper. I thought that was interesting.

haha, not too shocking that they use so-called "VooDoo economics" when accounting for their revenues and expenses. Tricky little bastards.

 

[Caped Crusader]

Speaking about the sequel, isnt McG working on T5 already?

 

[redfirebird2008]

Speaking about the sequel, isnt McG working on T5 already?

I'm sure he is, but he has likely been informed that it's being put on hold due to the semi-flop start at the box office.

 

[BatMatt]

Yea but Schumacher was working on Batman 5 too.

 

[Dark Victory]

Wow, I can't believe this film's budget was $200 million. The sets and effects looked great, but wow. Dumb move by WB, if you ask me. The last one disappointed a lot of people and only made back 3 quarters of it's budget. This film won't be a flop like most make it out be, it will definitely be an underperformer like Watchmen. I see it making maybe $110-120 million domestically. Then again, this film could pull a POTC or BB and have great legs.

 

[Caped Crusader]

Yea but Schumacher was working on Batman 5 too.

Still is.. I heard

 

[Caped Crusader]

If they get new writers. Jonah Nolan with full control, can possibly make things work

 

[Lighthouse]

Speaking about the sequel, isnt McG working on T5 already?

As pointed out, Schumacher was working on Batman 5, Singer was working on another Superman, and Frank Miller and Lionsgate were planning TWO Spirit sequels.(Link) Franchises are built specifically for multiple movies, so of course they are planning for sequels before the first movie has even premiered. And many, many of them end up being scrapped.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Wow, I can't believe this film's budget was $200 million. The sets and effects looked great, but wow. Dumb move by WB, if you ask me. The last one disappointed a lot of people and only made back 3 quarters of it's budget. This film won't be a flop like most make it out be, it will definitely be an underperformer like Watchmen. I see it making maybe $110-120 million domestically. Then again, this film could pull a POTC or BB and have great legs.

It's not going to pull a POTC or a BB. I'm 100% sure of that.

Hell I didn't dislike the flick but I just don't see the Star Trek type word of mouth happening.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

It's not going to pull a POTC or a BB. I'm 100% sure of that.

Hell I didn't dislike the flick but I just don't see the Star Trek type word of mouth happening.

I don't know how many more times it must be said before it sinks into some people's heads. The last two Terminator films (both made for $200+ million) were box-office under-performers and The Sarah Connor Chronicles was a failure as a television series. This franchise = done.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

It's a sad day in film when Dance Flick or Night At The Museum has a bigger audience than Terminator Salvation. Terminator Salvation wasn't a bad film and I found it to be a solid, gritty, and very intense film that deserves to be part of the Terminator series.

Perhaps they should've released the film itself in the fall rather than the summer.