Box Office Predictions: Star Trek XI

[Lightning Strykez!]

Now that we are 1.) officially into the "Summer Movie Season", 2.) its first offering (Wolverine) has already hit theatres this past weekend, and 3.) copious amounts of critics' reviews are in, let's launch the official box office discussion for Star Trek XI.

Opening weekend, along with domestic and international forecasting is welcome. Thanks.

--Caliph

 

[Warhammer]

I am hoping for a 100 million plus opening weekend to be honest. If the extensive marking works and the bad stigma of Star Trek is diminished, then this may have a legitimate shot. I mean, who predicted Iron Man would open with over 100 million on it's opening weekend? I am hoping it opens with 100 million plus, or at least 90 million. It's going to be tough with X-Men Origins: Wolverine only a week in, regardless of how much it drops off next week.

 

[Nivek]

Are you really calling this Star Trek 11?

 

[Warhammer]

Are you really calling this Star Trek 11?

Well...technically in two ways, it is.

 

[Darthkush]

I'm gonna say it does about 65 million. That's QUITE high for a Star Trek film but the positive reviews and incredibly giant marketing push will get it there. I mean, I don't think i've seen an Star Trek display like that at Toys R Us...EVER.

I think it's legs will be great once good wom starts after the weekend. I think it'll end at just under or just over 200 million. Think Batman Begins with a slightly higher opening.

I think Wolverine will fall down to about 28 million this coming weekend.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Are you really calling this Star Trek 11?

Well...yeah. It doesn't have a subtitle.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Great thread!

I'm thinking 58mil for the weekend and about 4mil for the thursday 7pm sneaks. So 62mil overall.

Total gross 210 to 220mil.

Overseas: 175 to 200mil

Total:385mil to 420mil.

If I like the flick I hope thats enough for a sequel.

The reason I'm not going high is because I see this more as a Batman Begins style flick. DVD sales will be huge and a sequel will come about. If it opens with 90mil I sure wont be the one predicting it correctly.

 

[TNC9852002]

Yeah. Opening weekend, I'm thinking around $70m.

Total domestic, maybe around $265m.

 

[Avangarde]

I get the feeling that due to excellent promoting, that stigmata that has followed Star Trek being nerdy has eased off. Therefore this will do extremely well in the Box Office, therefore I declare that.......

Opening Weekend will be $75 Million US

With a total world wide gross of $570 Million US, but I hope it will cross the $600~ mark.

I don't live in the US so I don't care much for your domestic figures, however it will be healthy.

 

[X-Ray]

$65+ Million for US opening weekend

 

[TheComicbookKid]

STAR TREK

Opening weekend:62mil
Total: 169mil

 

[Nivek]

I'll be bold (I suck at box office predictions, it's like predicting the weather)...

Opening day: 40 Million (I know alot more people hyped to see this than Wolverine)
Weekend gross: $95-110 Million Domestic U.S.
International: Another $70-90 million.

This should by all rights smoke the box office of a mediocre movie like Wolverine.

 

[War Party]

Well...yeah. It doesn't have a subtitle.

But the movie is called Star Trek.

It will guess a weekend gross of $105 million.

 

[That-Guy]

I'm going to go with $70 million but I'm hoping that it hits a lot higher. I think that, if the movie is good (and I believe it will be) then it will have a good, consistant run and make a hell of a profit. But word of mouth is really important with this film because it needs to get over the nerd hurdle ("nurdle" if you will) and win over mainstream audiences.

I think this movie's biggest obstacle is simply people who haven't been following it as much as we have and are just thinking that it will be another run-of-the-mill Star Trek movie for Trek fans only.

 

[scifiwolf]

I dunno, this is a tough call. Paramount made a great decision in moving it from Christmas to May, and they've marketed the film beautifully with all that extra time. With all the tie-ins, endless exposure on channels like MTV/Vh1, and TDK-quality reviews, I'd say this movie will push past $100 million. At the very least, it has that potential.

 

[Excel]

I hate to say it, but I think anybody expecting anything north of 70 million will be dissappointed.

I see it something like:
Sneaks: 5 million
Friday: 18 million
Saturday: 22 million
Sunday: 16.5 million
Opening weekend: 56.5
Total: 61.5
Multipler: 3.15
Total: 178 million

But dont worry Trek fans, the REAL money is in the sequel

 

[Kane52630]

weekend $90 Million

 

[Sentinel X]

Opening Day: 28 million
Opening Weekend: 70 million
Domestic: 200 - 250 million If it had good WOM which it probably will...it will do great.

It will make enough to have a sequel which will probably make a lot more than the original. Hopefully it crushes Wolverine (I detest this movie...and no, I haven't even given it a chance )

 

[Immortalfire]

When the hell did Misc Films turn into the Star Trek board

 

[GhostPoet]

120 mil.

 

[GhostPoet]

I hate to say it, but I think anybody expecting anything north of 70 million will be dissappointed.

I see it something like:
Sneaks: 5 million
Friday: 18 million
Saturday: 22 million
Sunday: 16.5 million
Opening weekend: 56.5
Total: 61.5
Multipler: 3.15
Total: 178 million

But dont worry Trek fans, the REAL money is in the sequel

That seems very low...considering the hottness of the pre-order ticket sales.

 

[Excel]

Its total will be closer to 120 million then its opening weekend will

I hope its low, and to be totally honest my gut instinct says this gonna overperform its tracking (which has it around 60). The brain, however, is telling me to keep them in check. It is star trek, and outside of presales, nothing is screaming "huge breakout" on opening weekend.

Plus, the presales are almost entirely for IMAX, which is hardly impressive considering TDK was selling out IMAX shows over a month in advance.

 

[GhostPoet]

Its total will be closer to 120 million then its opening weekend will

I hope its low, and to be totally honest my gut instinct says this gonna overperform its tracking (which has it around 60). The brain, however, is telling me to keep them in check. It is star trek, and outside of presales, nothing is screaming "huge breakout" on opening weekend.

Plus, the presales are almost entirely for IMAX, which is hardly impressive considering TDK was selling out IMAX shows over a month in advance.

hmm, sounds like you are assuming most of it's ticket sales will be made by fans? If so...i've seen the opposite. Most people here in my office are set to go...and they don't even like Trek.

 

[Excel]

Superman fans said the same thing in 2006...Batfans said the same thing in 2005...."I have seen people....everybody I know wants to go...."

I would love to ST do way more than my predicts simply because I think it looks sweet...but I would be surprised if it did.

 

[GhostPoet]

Interesting...guess we'll see.
I'm basing mine on pre-ticket sales, but also on the sheer amount of excitement i've seen from fan and non-alike. Seems to be pretty common on here and in real life...people who don't normally like Trek are actually looking forward to the film.

I think it's going to surprise a lot of people. This is the first movie in a while where I'm buying the tickets in advance because it seems like my theater is going to get sold out fast. :/