Terminator Salvation: Box Office Prediction/Discussion

[Episode29]

Who'd thunk that Fast & Furious would make thirty-something million more than Salvation in its opening weekend? Not I.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I never formally posted any predictions but I had NATM 2 and T4 higher than they got, although I still had NATM 2 at the top o the charts.

 

[Theweepeople]

It could be the economy as well... all the movies have slightly underperformed... May lineups usually set records on an annual basis. Not the case this year. But with these dark films like Watchmen and TS underperforming... you wonder if it's only a matter of time before WB goes back to campy films geared at a younger audience. At least that would bode well for Superman... which shouldn't be very dark... assuming the reboot even happens in the next four years.

I think it's too early to blame the failure of these movies on the economy. If that was the case Star Trek wouldn't have the legs it has had. Wolverine, Terminator, Angels and Demons, and Night of the Museum all got horrible reviews on rotten tomatoes. It's pretty clear to me that these films are underperforming because the general audience was disappointed with all of them. I expect Land of the Lost to do poorly because that also looks pretty stupid.

If Disney's UP and Transformers both underperform then I'll be willing to believe the economy is playing a big role.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

A poor economy means more boxoffice bucks not less.

 

[dude stannis]

Who'd thunk that Fast & Furious would make thirty-something million more than Salvation in its opening weekend? Not I.

Seems the serious films aren't doing as well as the ones that promise a (supposed) good time.

Maybe Vin Diesel is more popular than Christian Bale?

 

[Rishi]

People are writing this film's BO off already. There's no big action movie coming out for almost a month, let's wait and see if its got legs before we dismiss T5.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

People are writing this film's BO off already. There's no big action movie coming out for almost a month, let's wait and see if its got legs before we dismiss T5.

I don't think so.

 

[matrix_ghost]

It's more like a higher percentage of FAMILIES with under 13 year olds wanted to watch a FAMILY style kid friendly comedy instead of a serious sci fi war film. Makes sense right?

It doesn't have anything to do with Stiller vs Bale.

Your comment is silly....wake up....

And the fact that NATM 2 had
1) shorter running time ( 105 min as opposed to T4's 130 min )
2) played in more theaters including IMAX

I haven't seen T4 yet so i can't comment on how the movie actually is however these factors do also play a (big) role in the BO performance of a movie.

Also i can't believe that Terminator 4 costs 200 million. Aside from Brian Singer's assraping of Superman Returns , "most" 200 (plus) million dollar movies do actually show that that they cost that much . SPider-man 2 & 3 , POTC 2 & 3 , Narnia 2 , Transformers 2 , King Kong.
From what i've seen in trailers etc , i just can't buy that Terminator 4 costs that much. I'd actully go for a number between 150-180 million

 

[Heretic]

The DP cost 20 million.

 

[Octoberist]

Who'd thunk that Fast & Furious would make thirty-something million more than Salvation in its opening weekend? Not I.

Strange world we live in.

 

[Timstuff]

So what is it about this movie that people are hating on? All I ever hear is really vague crap like "the story sucks" and stuff.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So what is it about this movie that people are hating on? All I ever hear is really vague crap like "the story sucks" and stuff.

Stop being so defensive, some people just didn't like the flick. I did kinda but it was nothing to write home about IMHO.

Anywho wouldn't it funny if we are completely wrong and this movie springs huge legs?...it's not going to happen but it would be funny.

 

[Rishi]

I just think it's funny that people say this movie (or a sequel) are unnecessary. If we've gotten this far, let's finish the job.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I just think it's funny that people say this movie (or a sequel) are unnecessary. If we've gotten this far, let's finish the job.

I can't stop you from wanting the job finished but the job was finished for me in 1991.

 

[Alonsovich]

Just in case... this movie hasn't opened internationally in most places yet... there's still an international BO that can make profit... plus all the merchandising... the moment this makes 1$ profit with all these factors added up there will be a T5... don't forget that the owners of the film rights are not WB and Sony... it's the two guys from Halcyon that can take this to whoever the hell they want as long as they get the money to make a fifth one.

 

[Rishi]

I can't stop you from wanting the job finished but the job was finished for me in 1991.

oh, I agree with you there. I just feel like if the damage has been done, we might as well finish what we started.

(Even if they didn't do T3, though, I'd have still been fiending for a T0 by Cameron)

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Just in case... this movie hasn't opened internationally in most places yet... there's still an international BO that can make profit... plus all the merchandising... the moment this makes 1$ profit with all these factors added up there will be a T5... don't forget that the owners of the film rights are not WB and Sony... it's the two guys from Halcyon that can take this to whoever the hell they want as long as they get the money to make a fifth one.

The problem is no one is going to fork over another $200+ million after the last two Terminator films under-performed and The Sarah Connor Chronicles proved to be a flop on television. They'll talk a great game about doing a fifth installment with Bale, but it will be just that - talk.

And the international territories won't recoup big box-office like it did for T3 (i.e. Arnold is still a mega-star overseas!)

 

[Alonsovich]

The problem is no one is going to fork over another $200+ million after the last two Terminator films under-performed and The Sarah Connor Chronicles proved to be a flop on television. They'll talk a great game about doing a fifth installment with Bale, but it will be just that - talk.

And the international territories won't recoup big box-office like it did for T3 (i.e. Arnold is still a mega-star overseas!)

The same was thought about Narnia and then Fox took it... as long as the film rights belong to two individuals and not to any studio... they'll find any way to finance it as soon as it hits one dollar profit... and I highly doubt they're not going to make it considering DVD sales, merchandising, international and domestic BO plus various agreements... these guys don't answer to stock holders and much less have other properties to milk in case this one fails. There's only two options: first scenario is they make a profit and there's a T5 in whichever form with whatever studio. Second scenario is they don't make a profit and sell the rights to another company that having bought them for a quantity of money will want to milk the property they just acquired. In whichever case we get a T5. If this were a Fox or WB or Sony property I agree they'd take a time to think things out before going back (or not). But this belongs to two guys that only have this as a cash cow and are going to take benefit for it whatever the cost.

 

[Lord Blackbolt]

toys r us had a whole section of TS toys

 

[Lord Blackbolt]

I seems to me that prognosticators think the Terminator is worth much more to the general audience than it really is. I mean, T2 was the franchises only smash installment, and that was 18 years ago. One smash film does not a long-term reliable franchise make.

T3 made over 400 million world wide....didn't it

 

[Nivek]

So what is it about this movie that people are hating on? All I ever hear is really vague crap like "the story sucks" and stuff.

Self Fulfilling Prophecy, people have been wanting this movie to fail for months (like Wolverine, and Angels & Demons).

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

The same was thought about Narnia and then Fox took it...

The difference being that Narnia was coming off of one under-performing sequel after the first film made $800 million. Terminator now has two under-peforming sequels and a failed tv series.

Thus comparing it to Narnia is way off...

 

[Evil Twin]

The problem is no one is going to fork over another $200+ million after the last two Terminator films under-performed and The Sarah Connor Chronicles proved to be a flop on television. They'll talk a great game about doing a fifth installment with Bale, but it will be just that - talk.

And the international territories won't recoup big box-office like it did for T3 (i.e. Arnold is still a mega-star overseas!)

I'd suggest that the obvious solution is simply not to spend $200+ million on the film but something more modest, like $130 to $150 million. I don't think anyone has suggested that Watchmen isn't a great looking film, for example.

The whole franchise has its roots in a science fiction B-movie starring unknowns and a bodybuilder. Being more modest in the budget and expectations isn't a bad idea and isn't untrue to the series.

 

[Watchman]

Self Fulfilling Prophecy, people have been wanting this movie to fail for months (like Wolverine, and Angels & Demons).

Or maybe people just didn't like the movie?

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

I don't think so.

Me either. This movie has piss poor word of mouth.