Terminator Salvation: Box Office Prediction/Discussion

Domestic Box Office Returns

  • 0-60 Million

  • 60-100 Million

  • 100-150 Million

  • 150-200 Million

  • 200-250 Million

  • 250 Million +


Results are only viewable after voting.
Self Fulfilling Prophecy, people have been wanting this movie to fail for months (like Wolverine, and Angels & Demons).

LOL. You can't be serious.

I wonder, though, does WB look at the fact Watchmen made more money and was better reviewed than this movie and think they may have made a mistake with the rating?
 
I'd suggest that the obvious solution is simply not to spend $200+ million on the film but something more modest, like $130 to $150 million.

No offense to you personally. But anytime I hear people make off-hand remarks like, "Oh, all they have to do is just spend $150 million and that's it!" has clearly never been involved with filmmaking and/or the process of getting a project greenlit. It's easier said than done.
 
I don't think these clowns at Halcyon are just going to green light another if they make a dollar profit. Even if they are a few million in the green... it has to be something considerable if they decide to go through with another. I mean how much of this budget came out of their own pockets? They pretty much produced it ala Marvel Studios with their independent films. If most of that 200 came out of their own pockets that spells trouble. Then their percentage for WB's distribution fee... say it's something like 10-15%... that a significant chunk. Say WW this ends up with 225-250 millionish. Thats 20-30 million right there to WB... then they are pretty much back at 200 million. They'd have to sell the rights at that point, but who says the buyers will just revamp it again shortly there after and suffer the same disappoinment of TS? Who knows what will happen at that point. And as far as Narnia... every knows Disney overpaid for it and overestimated it, and that's on top of giving Caspian a competitive May release date when they should have fast tracked for Holiday 2007. Yeah the movie performed well below expectations more than anyone could have imagined, but still. THere was no way Narnia 3 wasn't going to happen though. Even Narnia 4 is probably safe so long as Narnia 3 does not bomb outright.
 
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No offense to you personally. But anytime I hear people make off-hand remarks like, "Oh, all they have to do is just spend $150 million and that's it!" has clearly never been involved with filmmaking and/or the process of getting a project greenlit. It's easier said than done.

No, I get where you're coming from. I'm not suggesting that it's easy.

Let's put it another way, it's obvious that the economic model for Terminator movies has to be adjusted for what actual returns are. And actual returns are probably somewhere in the $130 to $150 million domestic range, with T2 being the exception. Since you really want your return to be at least equal to your budget domestic, that's basically what the budget for a next Terminator movie has to be to be made.

And, I'd argue that it's certainly possible to make a great looking science fiction action film for that amount of money. Heck, a great deal of cost savings is built right into the initial concept as the Terminators look like normal people most of the time.

I don't want to suggest that it's only a matter of cutting the budget, but if you want to see more Terminator movies, the only circumstance I can see that happening is with more modest budgets. The very best example of this I can think of is Wrath of Khan, a movie that was made for a leaner budget than TMP. Combined with good word of mouth, it formed the economic basis for the rest of the series.

I really think that if there is another movie it has to follow two things.

1. It has to be more modestly budgeted. $200 million Terminator movies aren't a good economic model.
2. It has to move the story forward. Not just in time. Get to JC sending his own father back in time to his death and then beyond there. And follow the consequences of that on JC. Get to the part of the story that we don't know.
 
I don't think these clowns at Halcyon are just going to green light another if they make a dollar profit. Even if they are a few million in the green... it has to be something considerable if they decide to go through with another. I mean how much of this budget came out of their own pockets? They pretty much produced it ala Marvel Studios with their independent films. If most of that 200 came out of their own pockets that spells trouble. Then their percentage for WB's distribution fee... say it's something like 10-15%... that a significant chunk. Say WW this ends up with 225-250 millionish. Thats 20-30 million right there to WB... then they are pretty much back at 200 million. They'd have to sell the rights at that point, but who says the buyers will just revamp it again shortly there after and suffer the same disappoinment of TS? Who knows what will happen at that point. And as far as Narnia... every knows Disney overpaid for it and overestimated it, and that's on top of giving Caspian a competitive May release date when they should have fast tracked for Holiday 2007. Yeah the movie performed well below expectations more than anyone could have imagined, but still. THere was no way Narnia 3 wasn't going to happen though. Even Narnia 4 is probably safe so long as Narnia 3 does not bomb outright.
What I see is the WB, MGM, or even Columbia Pictures owning this puppy. Halcyon may have to sell the T-franchise when it's all said and done.

But at the end, there will be a T5. Bank on it.
 
so I saw this movie yesterday and I wish I hadn't. It sucked. I'm glad NATM 2 is kicking its ass.
 
What I see is the WB, MGM, or even Columbia Pictures owning this puppy. Halcyon may have to sell the T-franchise when it's all said and done.

But at the end, there will be a T5. Bank on it.
maybe the studios wanted this movie to underperform so that they would sell the rights.

a master plan........i tell you :hehe:
 
Self Fulfilling Prophecy, people have been wanting this movie to fail for months (like Wolverine, and Angels & Demons).

but those movies were #1 on the weekends they opened. This movie couldn't even do that...
 
Actually, after the weekend - Terminator Salvation had more money than Night of the Museum. :huh:

only because it opened a day earlier than NATM 2. If you look at Friday-Sunday earnings, NATM 2 kicked T:S ass.
 
only because it opened a day earlier than NATM 2. If you look at Friday-Sunday earnings, NATM 2 kicked T:S ass.

But how can you compare a movie's opening weekend Friday-Sunday, when it opened on Thursday?

The idea that NATM destroyed T:S is simply wrong. T:S simply spread their weekend over four days.
 
But how can you compare a movie's opening weekend Friday-Sunday, when it opened on Thursday?

The idea that NATM destroyed T:S is simply wrong. T:S simply spread their weekend over four days.

okay, well even if you figure in the midnight and Thursday showings for T:S, it only beat NATM2 by 3 million. It had midnight showings and a full day head start. still...not good.
 
I feel like an ass, I thought this poll was for opening weekend. Thus I voted 60 million. I'd like to change my vote to 150-200. :(
 
I think the domestic box office will be $100-150 million
 
So I see where the estimated domestic total so far is $67 million. That's not too bad... right?:csad:
 
that's actually pretty damn bad.
 
At the rate it's going, I'd say there's slim-to-none chance that this outgrosses T3.
 
So Jamie, for the foreseeable future, is the franchise dead?
 
Well, we've been agreeing a lot with each other lately (i.e. both of us called Chuck getting a third season!)

I'd say it's safe to label this franchise dead. Two under-performing films in a row (both with $200+ million budgets) and one failed television series. No one is going to want to invest any more money in this for the forseeable future.
 
Well, we've been agreeing a lot with each other lately (i.e. both of us called Chuck getting a third season!)

I'd say it's safe to label this franchise dead. Two under-performing films in a row (both with $200+ million budgets) and one failed television series. No one is going to want to invest any more money in this for the forseeable future.
It's at times like this when I wish Cameron would've gone with the "Judgment Day never happened and John ended up becoming a Senator" ending for T2.
 
Well, we've been agreeing a lot with each other lately (i.e. both of us called Chuck getting a third season!)

Unfortunately we have to wait til January, but I'll take it :woot:

I'd say it's safe to label this franchise dead. Two under-performing films in a row (both with $200+ million budgets) and one failed television series. No one is going to want to invest any more money in this for the forseeable future.

Yeah, I tend to agree. It is sad because this movie could've created something really special that really brought in the ticket sales and yet... :csad:
 

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