The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Nemeres]

I got dibs on $108M opening weekend.

I got 102 mil.

 

[jmc]

Sony will just move on and continue the series. They won't cancel TASM3 or anything at the risk of going out of business and losing a LOT of profit.

Makes me wonder how it will affect the Sinister 6 film though.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm tired of not predicting things because I'm afraid to be wrong. Who gives a crap if I'm wrong. Everybody thinks that every film is going to break records in this slot and I don't think it's going to happen this time. I think the mixed reaction to the first film, plus the mixed reviews, plus the obnoxious marketing, plus Cap 2 stealing it's thunder equals underperforming opening weekend numbers.

That is more then fair.

I think I will go with... $93mil.

You jerk, you aren't supposed to say that.

My apologize milady. my gentleman capacitor has been on the fritz.

 

[psylockolussus]

Makes me wonder how it will affect the Sinister 6 film though.

I think they could lower the budget for that film well if they already have a number. I think Sinister 6 and Venom could be done with a budget of $130 million or lower. And if they really want to save costs, film them back to back.

 

[Wildcard]

I definitely see TASM 2 making between $100-150 million. I see this doing Spidey's usual numbers (between $800 million or more) thought if it's really good & catches on I think it could be Spidey's first billion dollar movie.

We'll see.

 

[jmc]

I think they could lower the budget for that film well if they already have a number. I think Sinister 6 and Venom could be done with a budget of $130 million or lower. And if they really want to save costs, film them back to back.

The issue I have with the Sinister 6 film is that it potentially could be a 2 hour prologue. I honestly don't know how you do a film about villains with no hero.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

I got 102 mil.

I definitely see TASM 2 making between $100-150 million. I see this doing Spidey's usual numbers (between $800 million or more) thought if it's really good & catches on I think it could be Spidey's first billion dollar movie.

We'll see.

I wanna think that too but there may be franchise fatigue. Don't get me wrong, I'd love for a $150M opening weekend, but I really think it'll be in the $95-$110 range.

And it's overall gross you say will hit $800, but the last couldn't hit that so that may fall into play here as well.

 

[spider-neil]

The issue I have with the Sinister 6 film is that it potentially could be a 2 hour prologue. I honestly don't know how you do a film about villains with no hero.

This is Sony's oppotunity to do something unique because currently I don't see how they pull it off.

 

[jmc]

This is Sony's oppotunity to do something unique because currently I don't see how they pull it off.

I've heard them say they're going to be inspired by some famous villain led movies but the problem is the films they were talking about (Unforgiven I believe was one) is that the 'villains' were more like anti-heroes. Anti-heroes and villains aren't the same thing.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Realistically, I think TASM2 will make what sites are reporting- somewhere around the 700s in overall gross.

That, or similar numbers to Cap actually. I know foreign market will love TASM2 though.

 

[spider-neil]

I've heard them say they're going to be inspired by some famous villain led movies but the problem is the films they were talking about (Unforgiven I believe was one) is that the 'villains' were more like anti-heroes. Anti-heroes and villains aren't the same thing.

With Villain is the hero in his own head and that is how they should approach the movie. Give us the Villain's perspective. Let's see what it's like to walk a mile in the Villain's shoes.

 

[spider-neil]

I think this movie is going to make less than the first but more than 700m. If I had to make a guess I would say between 700-730.
This will no doubt disappoint Sony but with DVD/Blu ray sales (The GA will be more open to take a chance with home theatre) and TV on every major country on the planet, they will more than make their money back.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

I think this movie is going to make less than the first but more than 700m. If I had to make a guess I would say between 700-730.

Same.

 

[Superhero 101]

My guess is opening weekend 90-100 million with it ending around 220-230 domestically and 470 overseas

 

[spider-neil]

Sony should take heart that Bond bounced back from the critical and commercial disappointment of QoS to the critical and commercial success of Skyfall, with the same principle leads, but a different director, writer (I think) and cinematographer. So major turn arounds can happen.

 

[spiderman2]

I think people are underestimaging this movie big time. I think there is no way this movie makes less then the first one and I think people will fell stupid when it makes at least 800 million and at least 100 on OW. OW 115 million USA 300 out side 550=850 book it!

 

[spiderman2]

I havnt heard a tracking number sinces like april 10th and then it was 100 million and form what I have heard it normaly goes up the tracking has it gets closer to coming out. So advengers is the only movie to make 200 or more OW beside the next one what movie does ever one think could be the next movie to have a 200 or more OW.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think they could lower the budget for that film well if they already have a number. I think Sinister 6 and Venom could be done with a budget of $130 million or lower. And if they really want to save costs, film them back to back.

If they can't make Spider-Man for that much, how are they going to do those films for under $200m?

I think people are underestimaging this movie big time. I think there is no way this movie makes less then the first one and I think people will fell stupid when it makes at least 800 million and at least 100 on OW. OW 115 million USA 300 out side 550=850 book it!

I guess you just had to be rude, right?

 

[spider-neil]

If Sony wants to cut cost then scale back the marketing which currently is serious over kill. I seeing scenes and pictures from ASM2 and that was with me actively trying to avoid it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If Sony wants to cut cost then scale back the marketing which currently is serious over kill. I seeing scenes and pictures from ASM2 and that was with me actively trying to avoid it.

Marketing is one thing. The actual budget for TASM2 is being reported as $255m.

Also we must consider why they spend so much on marketing. If they scale back, how much profit are they giving up?

 

[spiderman2]

Sorry I wasn't trying to be rude I just think that people are under estimating how much it will make. While I do think that they could cut back some on marketing they should to much for this movie and did like a million trailers. It was said they spent like 190 on marketing I don't know how that compares to other spider man movies marketing but sounds like a lot. Couldn't they cute the marketing down a little say like 160 million or 150?

 

[spider-neil]

Marketing is one thing. The actual budget for TASM2 is being reported as $255m.

Also we must consider why they spend so much on marketing. If they scale back, how much profit are they giving up?

Scale it back, be more creative, be more clever, be more focused.

So if I had the ear of Sony (I'd put it in a jar ) I would tell them to make 3 trailers;

1) Teaser
A year out from the movie. Compleletly CG that doesn't have a single scene from the movie .

2) Trailer 1
6 months out from the movie. A trailer that holds back the majority of the movie, just give a hint from a fantastic sequence. Try and show the theme of the movie.

3) Trailer 2
1 month out from the movie. The big trailer, show some really cool scenes. Show NONE of the climax.

So if I were if charge;

Teaser:
I dunno a Spider walking over an electric circuit board with Electro's dialogue about taking down Spider-Man, and you see electricity crackle on the circuit board. Just a rough idea of showing NOTHING from the movie.

Trailer 1;
Scenes with Peter and Gwen, Peter and Harry. Focus on the truck raid at the start of the movie. Close with a shot of Electro.

Trailer 2;
Scenes from Times Square, Spidey wise cracking, dramtic scenes with Harry and Peter. Show nothing of the climax. Show nothing of Rhino, show nothing of Goblin.


Posters;
Focus on Spidey, Spidey and Gwen, Harry, Electro.
DO NOT show RHINO.
DO NOT show Goblin.

That is how I personally would have handled marketing.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Scale it back, be more creative, be more clever, be more focused.

So if I had the ear of Sony (I'd put it in a jar ) I would tell them to make 3 trailers;

1) Teaser
A year out from the movie. Compleletly CG that doesn't have a single scene from the movie .

2) Trailer 1
6 months out from the movie. A trailer that holds back the majority of the movie, just give a hint from a fantastic sequence. Try and show the theme of the movie.

3) Trailer 2
1 month out from the movie. The big trailer, show some really cool scenes. Show NONE of the climax.

So if I were if charge;

Teaser:
I dunno a Spider walking over an electric circuit board with Electro's dialogue about taking down Spider-Man, and you see electricity crackle on the circuit board. Just a rough idea of showing NOTHING from the movie.

Trailer 1;
Scenes with Peter and Gwen, Peter and Harry. Focus on the truck raid at the start of the movie. Close with a shot of Electro.

Trailer 2;
Scenes from Times Square, Spidey wise cracking, dramtic scenes with Harry and Peter. Show nothing of the climax. Show nothing of Rhino, show nothing of Goblin.


Posters;
Focus on Spidey, Spidey and Gwen, Harry, Electro.
DO NOT show RHINO.
DO NOT show Goblin.

That is how I personally would have handled marketing.

That isn't really where they spend their money when it comes to marketing. Not the bulk of it. All those signs you see out in the wild, the avalanche of tv spots, spending out the stars for events. That is what cost the big money.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think people are underestimaging this movie big time. I think there is no way this movie makes less then the first one and I think people will fell stupid when it makes at least 800 million and at least 100 on OW. OW 115 million USA 300 out side 550=850 book it!

I'm not going to feel stupid if I'm wrong because I'm not clarvoyant, my predictions are **** a lot of the time.

 

[spiderman2]

while I really don't see this movie making less then 800. The first one made 762 and that was going agest dark knight rises and advengers and being a reboot and I belive the first movie won some people back and there was that shooting that happened and after people went to the movies a little less for like a week or to. With all of those things I don't think 38 million more is to much to ask for.