The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[lukebrodyg]

Sony sold off the merchandise rights so that gives them no relief.

I was unaware of that. But still, even with marketing, I don't see how a studio can spend 3 quarters of a billion on one film...

It should make 50% of it's cost back in profit at the very least.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

They probably already earned some of their money back on publicity & stuff like MOS did. It'll make money.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I was unaware of that. But still, even with marketing, I don't see how a studio can spend 3 quarters of a billion on one film...

It should make 50% of it's cost back in profit at the very least.

Like I said... It's been reported on Deadline etc, that the movies budget was $225 million and the marketing costs came to roughly $190 million. Sony has been very very foolish throwing around $415 million at this movie.

They NEED to be making $800 million just to break even. They are clearly hoping for over a billion.

If this makes less than or matches the first movies total... Sony will NOT be happy.

 

[JOE]

Sony sunk WAY too much into marketing this movie, IMO. Moderation is everything. I'm particularly impressed with the way Legendary is marketing Godzilla.

 

[The Shape]

If this makes less than or matches the first movies total... Sony will NOT be happy.

But...it won't.

 

[CaptainCraig]

I'm more interesting in second week showings as that will show if ASM2 has legs.

So true, same thinking here.

I expect a $90-$100m OW based on character loyalty alone.
It's that WOM for second weekend that will be telling(as it is for any film).

 

[lukebrodyg]

Like I said... It's been reported on Deadline etc, that the movies budget was $225 million and the marketing costs came to roughly $190 million. Sony has been very very foolish throwing around $415 million at this movie.

They NEED to be making $800 million just to break even. They are clearly hoping for over a billion.

If this makes less than or matches the first movies total... Sony will NOT be happy.

Just trying to understand your reasoning here but...

If the film cost $415m to make, how does $800m "break even?" Making $415m on a movie that cost $415m would be "breaking even" wouldn't it?

I totally agree with your assessment that $415m on one film is negligent. Especially considering the mixed reception to the prior film.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Superhero movies & blockbusters tend to have huge drops on the second weekend though, legs or no legs (aside from The Avengers or isolated cases), they're just hugely frontloaded beasts. It needs to do most of its business fast since Godzilla is gonna hit it hard.

@lukebro: they probably have some other things in place to recuperate some money aside from the BO revenue, publicity, marketing stuff, tax incentives (ie the article by Variety yesterday of them shooting most of it in New York & getting some nice tax rebates).

 

[lukebrodyg]

Sony sunk WAY too much into marketing this movie, IMO. Moderation is everything. I'm particularly impressed with the way Legendary is marketing Godzilla.

Agreed. Not sure what the strategy was there. I'm a huge fan of trailers, poster etc but I found myself groaning after a while.

 

[JOE]

But...it won't.

You think 750M WW+ is an absolute lock?

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

But...it won't.

I agree... but I don't think this movie will stop the domestic bleeding.

It overseas numbers haven't been overly spectacular but Japan and China should save the day and push it over $800 million.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Just trying to understand your reasoning here but...

If the film cost $415m to make, how does $800m "break even?" Making $415m on a movie that cost $415m would be "breaking even" wouldn't it?

I totally agree with your assessment that $415m on one film is negligent. Especially considering the mixed reception to the prior film.

Films don't make 100% on tickets sold. It is closer to 50% when you factor in how much they make in the US and on global ticket sales (the amount they make per ticket changes). So, the rule of thumb is it needs to do 2x it's business to break even. Think of it as, you spend 15 dollars on a ticket. The studio gets 7.50 of your ticket. Now, apply that to all tickets (aka, the BO gross).

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Films don't make 100% on tickets sold. It is closer to 50% when you factor in how much they make in the US and on global ticket sales (the amount they make per ticket changes). So, the rule of thumb is it needs to do 2x it's business to break even. Think of it as, you spend 15 dollars on a ticket. The studio gets 7.50 of your ticket. Now, apply that to all tickets (aka, the BO gross).

Thank you, Spider-Fan... you explained it much better than I ever could.

 

[lukebrodyg]

Films don't make 100% on tickets sold. It is closer to 50% when you factor in how much they make in the US and on global ticket sales (the amount they make per ticket changes). So, the rule of thumb is it needs to do 2x it's business to break even. Think of it as, you spend 15 dollars on a ticket. The studio gets 7.50 of your ticket. Now, apply that to all tickets (aka, the BO gross).

Gotcha...I forgot about that.

I see your point now Pfan.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

China should be really big, and considering TASM only did 48 million over there because of TDKR, it's not far fetched considering how huge it is in Asia right now (aside from Japan, it's breaking records all around) that it could double that in China.

800 M+ WW for me looks like a good possibility after a disappointing start.

 

[lukebrodyg]

Thank you, Spider-Fan... you explained it much better than I ever could.

So essentially you (a studio) have to 100% (ish) or more better than your budget.

Ouch Sony.

 

[The Shape]

I agree... but I don't think this movie will stop the domestic bleeding.

It overseas numbers haven't been overly spectacular but Japan and China should save the day and push it over $800 million.

Domestic bleeding?

 

[Spider-Fan]

Thank you, Spider-Fan... you explained it much better than I ever could.

No problemo

Hollywood accounting gets hairy at times, LOL!

So essentially you (a studio) have to 100% (ish) or more better than your budget.

Ouch Sony.

Very much ouch, LOL! So, 750mil isn't a great number for Sony. But, though the movie is said to have 415 mil put into it factoring in marketing costs, part of that will be off-set by government grants, advertisers, etc. So, 750mil as the break even point (as opposed to over 800) sounds about right.

 

[LizardMan07]

How much of a profit would Sony want from the movie in an ideal world?

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Domestic bleeding?

Each Spider-Man movie has made less and less domestically as the franchise continues:

That drop can be attributed in large part to declining interest in the U.S., where each movie has earned less than its predecessor. With franchise fatigue in full effect, it would be surprising if The Amazing Spider-Man 2 bucked this trend.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3831&p=.htm

 

[Spider-Fan]

How much of a profit would Sony want from the movie in an ideal world?

Considering they won't make anything off the merchandise of this movie, they want a high profit from this film theatrically, on DVD, and in TV rights. Closer to 750 only just puts them in the black (which they at LEAST want to be in the black), but realistically, since Spider-Man is a top CBM grossing franchise, closer to 1 billion I think is what they wanted. Especially when they invested as much as they did marketing the film.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

It's kind of the trend with most movies domestically.

They'll make a lot on DVD & BR sales, I think they'll be good on this one, not as much as hoped, but still good.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

It's kind of the trend with most movies domestically.

They'll make a lot on DVD & BR sales, I think they'll be good on this one, not as much as hoped, but still good.

Wasn't The Amazing Spider-Man a bit of a disappointment on DVD/Blu-Ray?

It's a declining market and Sony can't lean on it too much.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I still think it will probably make somewhere around 800mil because of China but I think that's the last time this franchise gets a bump.

 

[JOE]

Any numbers for Thursday screenings yet domestically?