The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[kedrell]

A disaster would be like I don't know, 500-600 M territory, which is not happening obviously. And why are you rooting for those, again with the childish aspirations? "Man I hope this fails", why?

Because I don't like to see bad films rewarded. We already have the Transformers franchise for that.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

My current predictions:

95 m OW
230 m DOM
480 m OS
710 m WW

That's 250 m less than what Sony was hoping for.

They need to drop the universe expansion plans and focus on salvaging ASM3. If it were me, I would save the Sinister Six for ASM4 and forget the spin offs.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

My current predictions:

95 m OW
230 m DOM
480 m OS
710 m WW

That's 250 m less than what Sony was hoping for.

They need to drop the universe expansion plans and focus on salvaging ASM3. If it were me, I would save the Sinister Six for ASM4 and forget the spin offs.

If that's the final total... the Sony boardrooms would be a sight to see.

 

[Picard Sisko]

They should just make the Sinister Six a team of villains to appear in a later Spider-Man film. We'll see though.

If this film makes $710 million then sony is doomed.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Watch this do more than TASM did overseas, and less domestic, that's what's going to happen.

If Sony is disappointed, they're gonna fudge it & call it a success.

@Picard: Sinister Six in one movie would doom it, it's not enough that there's been complaints ever since TASM2 was announced that it was going to be like Spidey 3, six villains would be the end of the world

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Sure you can. They tried and appeard to fail. I'll blame WB as well if BvS or JL end up being awful.

It also doesn't help that Spider-Man is all Sony has. WB at least has the entire DC Universe.

If Justice League fails the whole DC universe crumbles except for Batman solo projects and maybe Superman.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Does sony still have a 79% chance of going bankrupt?

 

[kedrell]

My hope is that it comes up short of $90M OW, misses $200M DOM with a bare 2X multiplier and drops to the low $400M's OS for maybe a top WW haul of $600M.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Not gonna happen kedrell, sorry to disappoint you.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I still wouldn't put too much faith in the overseas markets at this point.

 

[Picard Sisko]

I still wouldn't put too much faith in the overseas markets at this point.

The issue is that even if it does well overseas, sony only gets a small percentage of that profit.

 

[samsnee]

I remember part of what drive the reboot idea was that the budget of Spider-man 4 was getting too high. Seems like they didn't learn their lesson.

My guess? Next one will have some convoluted reason to film in China so they can market it better over there.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

From China:

"Midnight report:
At Wanda Cinemas, biggest theater chain in China, TASM2 is 20% bigger than CA2's midnights."

 

[Spiderine]

The original Spiderman made a huge splash with adults who grew up with the character and a new generation of kids. People waited forever to see Spidey on the big screen and it was something fresh and new. Never done before. The big trio of Superman, Batman and Spiderman and he was the only one not to have his movie. Its impossible to duplicate that.

I don't think its just the film itself, and it has problems but some people are suffer from fatigue. Tired of reboots and stale ideas. I am not looking forward to these spin offs either.

If Marvel ever had to reboot the MCU the same thing will happen.

 

[Marvin]

My current predictions:

95 m OW
230 m DOM
480 m OS
710 m WW

That's 250 m less than what Sony was hoping for.

They need to drop the universe expansion plans and focus on salvaging ASM3. If it were me, I would save the Sinister Six for ASM4 and forget the spin offs.

Someone should send this to Sony quick. Abandon all your plans, some guy on some forum has it all figured out.

As for the numbers in particular, I think it's interesting how one can seemingly jot down the approximate numbers for cap(sequel) and somehow paint that as some massive studio crisis. Only interesting in that these same/similar numbers are being championed in a very different light as of a week prior.

Successful numbers are successful numbers. Double standards aside. That being said, the OS numbers for this should be pretty impressive. The last TF film did like 700plus over seas alone. A 3D spidey sequel might approach that. Granted Godzilla opens only two weeks after and that should take alot of asia's audience with it. Marvel Studio's april release date is the gift that keeps on giving imo.

 

[TalismanRing]

From China:

"Midnight report:
At Wanda Cinemas, biggest theater chain in China, TASM2 is 20% bigger than CA2's midnights."

It's also opening on a Sunday, typically a stronger day. CA2 opened on a holiday weekend so it's Monday was big and has very strong legs. (still making millions as it's pulled from the theaters because of the quota)

TASM2 opened higher than CA2 in SK (with far less competition) and now with new local competition it's 2nd Sat is 17% behind CA2 2nd Saturday.

We won't know enough until another week or two and numbers settle and legs and patterns show.

Numbers can be spun by studios - all one has to do is look at that ridiculous Deadline column parroting Sony about how CA2 had a better release date in April which inflated it's numbers over ASM2's coveted first week of May opening. Embarrassing.

 

[samsnee]

You only won because you were the better movie. If you weren't as good, we would have won.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The original Spiderman made a huge splash with adults who grew up with the character and a new generation of kids. People waited forever to see Spidey on the big screen and it was something fresh and new. Never done before. The big trio of Superman, Batman and Spiderman and he was the only one not to have his movie. Its impossible to duplicate that.

I don't think its just the film itself, and it has problems but some people are suffer from fatigue. Tired of reboots and stale ideas. I am not looking forward to these spin offs either.

If Marvel ever had to reboot the MCU the same thing will happen.

People wouldn't root against an MCU reboot like they do against Sony.

People took the Spider-man reboot at Sony personally.

Just about everyone wants to see MCU succeed.

 

[TalismanRing]

Sony's studio heads pre-release was pumping for 1 billion WW. Considering they spent about $450m producing and marketing that's understandable. They expected growth domestic and O/S. The last studio head to declare their film would do over 1 billion was WB's when MOS came out. Coincidence or not he was gone soon after.

A Sinister Six film will be expensive to make and market. If Sony has second thoughts about it - believing it will do less ASM2 then putting it on hold would make sense.

 

[TalismanRing]

You only won because you were the better movie. If you weren't as good, we would have won.

t:

 

[Picard Sisko]

An MCU reboot is totally different because it involved adding Spider-Man to an already well-established cinematic universe. But I feel that by the time the film rights go back to Marvel it will be really hard to add Spider-Man to the mix. It probably wouldn't happen until Phase 4 or 5. To be quite frank, I would love to see a Brian Michael Bendis written Spider-Man film if the rights ever transferred back.

Does anyone think that if Marvel did get the rights back they would just try making a live action series like Daredevil?

 

[Tim_Riggins]

@Talisman: this isn't from Deadline but the BO boards. TASM2 is now 7 % behind TASM in SK, it seems to be stabilizing in some markets. We'll see.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

By the way, for domestic decrease, it was probably expected seeing how it happened exactly the same to Desolation Of Smaug (although it did do less overseas as well).

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Someone should send this to Sony quick. Abandon all your plans, some guy on some forum has it all figured out.
.

They should abandon their plans.

and lots of people agree with me.

I could understand you blindly defending Sony if ASM2 was as run-away success but it's a disappointment critically and financially.

But you always blindly defend every studio for some reason. I hope you at least sort of commission.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Even if Spider-Man were to ever hit a real low, it's not the end of the world. A character with such a rich comic book history can always be revived, even if he needs a 6-7 year break.

Well that's the same as saying Spidey needs Marvel Studios to revive him, lol.

My current predictions:

95 m OW
230 m DOM
480 m OS
710 m WW

That's 250 m less than what Sony was hoping for.

They need to drop the universe expansion plans and focus on salvaging ASM3. If it were me, I would save the Sinister Six for ASM4 and forget the spin offs.

I think it ends up with less than 230m DOM and more than 480m OS to even out at about what you have WW anyway.