The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Serpico Jones]

Edit.

 

[Picard Sisko]

If Spider-Man doesn't play a decent sized role in the Sinister Six movie then sony is going to be in even more trouble financially.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

If Spider-Man doesn't play a decent sized role in the Sinister Six movie then sony is going to be in even more trouble financially.

But if Spider-Man plays a significant role, it is no longer a Sinister Six movie, but a Spider-Man sequel.

Which is actually what I think they should do. Do TASM3 (with new writers and a new director) with The Sinister Six as the villains.

 

[Picard Sisko]

But if Spider-Man plays a significant role, it is no longer a Sinister Six movie, but a Spider-Man sequel.

Which is actually what I think they should do. Do TASM3 (with new writers and a new director) with The Sinister Six as the villains.

Well the Sinister Six film could still be a thing of its own (an ensemble film) if it is Spider-Man vs. the Sinister Six. To be honest, I think that TASM4 should be the sinister six since the third would be too soon IMO.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Well the Sinister Six film could still be a thing of its own (an ensemble film) if it is Spider-Man vs. the Sinister Six. To be honest, I think that TASM4 should be the sinister six since the third would be too soon IMO.

TASM4 would be fine too. They could even call it The Sinister Six if they want, but it would be a Spider-Man movie, not a Sinister Six movie.

 

[samsnee]

But if Spider-Man plays a significant role, it is no longer a Sinister Six movie, but a Spider-Man sequel.

Which is actually what I think they should do. Do TASM3 (with new writers and a new director) with The Sinister Six as the villains.

Because having multiple villains always works?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Because having multiple villains always works?

When they have the same motivation it's like having 1 villain.

 

[Picard Sisko]

TASM4 would be fine too. They could even call it The Sinister Six if they want, but it would be a Spider-Man movie, not a Sinister Six movie.

Hmm. Yeah. To be honest, a simple title like "Spider-Man vs. The Sinister Six" would work just fine. They could still get deeper into the motivations of the villains like in those Sinister Six novels, but even that was still a Spider-Man story. IDK where this whole "redemption" thing fits in? The Sinister Six exists to kill Spider-Man, period!

 

[Golgo-13]

The Singer controversy has so far been largely web based. I haven't seen much from mainstream media. If it was an alleged rape of a 17 yr old girl it would be all over ET, the evening news and shows like The View.

.

Actually TMZ live has been all over it.

If this was a teenage girl, then yeah, it would probably be getting more mainstream coverage. Anyhow, as sad as these allegations are, it's only adding to the buzz.

I seriously doubt that this will hurt the movie; in fact it may make more people go and see it, so they have something to gossip about in light of all the controversy. That coupled with Hollywoods new 'it girl' JLaw being used to heavily promote this along with Jackman, i say the movie is pretty safe as far as the b.o is concerned.

 

[Picard Sisko]

I don't see how the controversy will help DOFP in the box office?

 

[Pickle-El]

I think it's a few million away from passing it. But when it does, it'll hardly be a surprise.

As well as it will do WW. The Winter Soldier was incredibly China Heavy (115 million?) Without China going absolutely bonkers, WS probably ends up below Thor 2 WW. That gross really is eyebrow raising.

I think it's Domestic # is more indicative of how it did around the globe. Very solid without the inflated China numbers. Just a solid hit.

Spidey seems to have cooled off domestically, and can prob put out 250ish Million Domestic with each passing film. Nothing to sniff at, but the INTL numbers seem to have stabilized in the 400-500 range no matter how the film is received...who wouldn't be okay with 700 Million dollar films almost guaranteed film after film?

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

When they have the same motivation it's like having 1 villain.

Basically. The problem is trying to cram too many plots into a single film. But the Sinister Six is just one single plot that happens to have multiple villains.

 

[Picard Sisko]

That's why they need to establish most of these villains beforehand.

 

[Marvin]

Because diminishing returns for the main Spider-Man franchise makes the outlook for the spin-offs being financially viable look bleak. Spider-Man has been becoming less and less profitable since 2001, and even moreso since SM3. That was not happening with Iron Man.

Actually IM2 made less than IM2 by my memory. Both in domestic gross and in total revenue. But I suppose that's not what you are talking about, though you use the word profit.

However, to address your point more directly. If MOS was did half as well as it did, and WB was faced with two options. Face the 'diminishing' returns by focusing on yet another superman film or expand into other superman(cbm) related ventures and work from there in this new market landscape that's seemingly all about the novelty of inter connectivity. Why they would simply make another superman film and continue with the 'diminishing returns' I don't know. This is hollywood. All they need is a high concept and big name stars and they have a viable opportunity. Just who might be attached to this S6 film thus far...

It is also a different situation with regards to the actual spin-offs. The Avengers was a superhero teamup with Iron Man himself being a central (and arguably the main) character. Even if The Avengers didn't take off, the downside would have been essentially another Iron Man sequel. Sony isn't making a superhero teamup starring Spider-Man, because it doesn't have other heroes. It is making separate films starring Spider-Man supporting characters with little or no involvement of Spider-Man himself. It isn't the same thing. If Marvel was planning on making Justin Hammer: The Movie and Iron Man 2 disappointed critically and financially, I'm sure they would change their mind.

Basically the two situations are not in any way identical.

Justin Hammer the movie? What about Loki or more appropriately someone at least cinematically viable like Harry and his ironman glider and such, Justin Hammer the movie though... It's one thing to frame a film as something starring a 'supporting character' it's another thing to simply call a film 'The Chameleon' and design it a spy thriller for example. It's only the fan(boys) that automatically see things in the former.
All this talk of Black Widow making her own movie could be framed in any assortment of ways but I doubt they will be selling it as a supporting character the movie.

If sony makes a decent summer movie about a bunch of characters and the military application tech then thrust upon them with good character work, it could yield a solid results. Rise of the Planet of the apes or even phase one numbers. That's all that's needed to ensure something viable going forward and something even more viable when spidey is re-introduced.
This somehow hurting sony in some way...even with a moderate budget...

Building relevance doesn't have to be about a group of heroes meeting up. If Loki showed up in spiderman right now that would be a gain. If joker or even Bane showed up right now it would be a gain. It's about the synergy of relevance. Spiderman films have forever been plagued with having to give time to super villain origins(see nolans bat films to see the other way to do this). Having 6, now branded villains show up with their own developed back story very much in the fast 5 vain... would be a great opportunity for various reasons.

Lastly, no reason why Garfield can't cameo. Even digital Garfield with the mask and all. Toss in Sony's King Pin and all of sudden you have something new and exciting imo.

 

[Visualiza]

Good points all around, Marvin.

 

[Raiden]

Hmm. Yeah. To be honest, a simple title like "Spider-Man vs. The Sinister Six" would work just fine. They could still get deeper into the motivations of the villains like in those Sinister Six novels, but even that was still a Spider-Man story. IDK where this whole "redemption" thing fits in? The Sinister Six exists to kill Spider-Man, period!

While I love Raimi's Spider-Man movies (except for SM3), I think he tried too hard to make the villains seemed sympathetic, and I have a feeling that this is what they'll be doing in the Sinister Six movie. If they make the moviegoers sit through a movie where the main characters are all bastards and without any redeeming value, then I doubt it'll make any money at the BO.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Marvin, Iron Man made $585 million, while Iron Man 2 made $623 million...

 

[Visualiza]

Marvin, Iron Man made $585 million, while Iron Man 2 made $623 million...

Domestic.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Iron Man 2 was better received. There were some complaints, but not enough to warrant a change in course.

Iron Man 2 had 73% on Rotten Tomatoes, had a $128 million domestic opening weekend, grossed over $312 million domestically (just short of IM1), and outgrossed Iron Man 1 worldwide.

Ahem. And I did mean just short, IM1 grossed just $6 million more domestically than IM2. That's basically the same.

 

[Marvin]

Marvin, Iron Man made $585 million, while Iron Man 2 made $623 million...

I did say it did less domestic
And it's overall revenue was less. That is to say if you do the math on WW minus the respective budgets.

But I'm no math guy, I could be wrong.

 

[Golgo-13]

I can seeing X-Men: DOFP having a bigger opening weekend that ASM2.

 

[Neno_Kos]

I can seeing X-Men: DOFP having a bigger opening weekend that ASM2.

i can see it too, this new x-men cast is my cast. for some reason i never cared for x-men movies other then First Class ones and ofcourse Wolverine. there is something in this "reboot" series which makes me feel it had potential be really big and make big money.

 

[Marvin]

That last xmen did 102mill during that same weekend. It was coming off of something pretty hot but then again this one has alot going for it too.

First class was well received and they have Jackman back along with Jlaw and Tyrion and Fassbender and Mac are big stars in their own right. Unlike ASM2, it's offering up something hella different than what's come before(though it's seemingly still the Wolverine show).

It's also in 3D(native).
Safe bet it lands over 100 in three days. Might just come down to Godzilla.
Fox has been doing a great marketing job imo.

 

[Iceman]

Variety threw around the $125m figure for the 4 day weekend.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Hugh Jackman even confronted Magneto on WWE RAW last week