The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Mysteryman]

Any chance of moving TASM 3 to the july 4th weekend?
Or, is that too crowded?
I don't know the 2016 schedule.

 

[Wildcard]

You'd like to think (hope) so, but this studio is in serious denial it seems. We'll know for sure in the coming months if major changes aren't announced. I'd wager that everything goes ahead as planned.

I meant that they'll either flop completely with part three & be forced to let the character rest...at which point if audience interest doesn't rise & enough time elapses they could revert back to Marvel.

Or another option would be for Marvel Studios to just buy the rights back, though I'm sure that would cost some considerable cash.

And even if TASM 2 makes $600-700 million or a bit more, that's still a loss. You're talking about a movie where, budget and marketing costs combined, probably came up to $400 million or more. Considering less profits are received from the overseas gross (depending on the deal with the studio), it's likely they aren't seeing a huge chunk of that either.

TASM 2 would need to make at least $300 million domestically to be an actual success, but that isn't happening. So yeah, this is going to be a loss either way. Should teach Sony about over-budgeting movies (especially these).

Marvel only added $20 million to Thor & Captain America's budgets respectively, and made a great profit from both. Godzilla cost $160 million, which I'd say is about perfect, & it stands to make a decent profit as well since it had spectacular opening numbers.

No matter how you cut it, TASM 2's numbers are mediocre regardless of how big they seem.

 

[XSpidercideX]

Guys, the film is on track to make Sony $150 million dollars. They are fine.

All they need to do is keep the budget to a reasonable level in the next movies and they can make a ton of profit. There is no reason to stop the series now. The franchise is still one of the biggest they have.

There would be cause for concern if they broke even or lost money, but they are seriously fine.

 

[Donut]

Sony has to share what they make dont they ? That money does not entirely go to Sony

 

[XSpidercideX]

Sony has to share what they make dont they ? That money does not entirely go to Sony

What do you mean? That is the profit it will make the studio after all expenses etc. Not sure who they share that with.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

To make $150 million off of the theatrical gross, ASM2 would have to gross over a billion dollars. That isn't happening.

 

[XSpidercideX]

To make $150 million off of the theatrical gross, ASM2 would have to gross over a billion dollars. That isn't happening.

Where did you hear this? I've read several articles that states it will make 20% profit off of 750 million dollars, meaning 150 million.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I meant that they'll either flop completely with part three & be forced to let the character rest...at which point if audience interest doesn't rise & enough time elapses they could revert back to Marvel.

Or another option would be for Marvel Studios to just buy the rights back, though I'm sure that would cost some considerable cash.

With each film the stock is declining and I don't see that changing with the next one, particularly with the stiff competition it faces. Would Marvel want to get the rights back after the franchise hits rock bottom, at which point they'd have to wait about a decade before resurrecting the character in the MCU? They can certainly afford to wait. Or would they make an offer to Sony while the character still has some immediate value to both parties and therefore not have to mothball the franchise for as long a period? What's the breaking point for Sony and Marvel? What would it take for them to come together? Even if the next film is a complete failure Sony may still throw the hail mary with S6.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Where did you hear this? I've read several articles that states it will make 20% profit off of 750 million dollars, meaning 150 million.

The film cost approximately $450 million to make and market. Since the studio gets roughly 50% of the gross, that would be $900 million as the break even point. Reportedly they had some help with financing the film that lowered the break even point to around $750 million. That would put a $150 million profit at $1.05 billion.

Making $150 million on $750 million is just ridiculous. That would put the budget at $225 million. We know the movie cost way more than that. The production budget alone was $250 million.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Where did you hear this? I've read several articles that states it will make 20% profit off of 750 million dollars, meaning 150 million.

You keep forgetting those articles are probably assuming a much larger DOM BO. As has been stated numerous times the overseas markets don't return anywhere near the profit of the DOM BO. China takes at least 50% of the profits and that starts at week one. Other countries have other deals but with each week that passes the take for the theater grows even though the numbers get counted the same. I seriously doubt this has the legs to crawl to $750m WW.

 

[chaseter]

They also make less than 50% from oversees markets. Sony was shooting for $1 billion for a reason. Also, ASM1 had to make like $750 million just to break even if I remember correctly. There was an article about that.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Guys, the film is on track to make Sony $150 million dollars. They are fine.

Sony are not fine, they make mediocre movies and are losing money and audience members with each film. If that is your definition of fine then so be it. You talk about keeping the budgets low when the finished product is substandard in comparison to the competition. Where is the quality control?

 

[XSpidercideX]

The film cost approximately $450 million to make and market. Since the studio gets roughly 50% of the gross, that would be $900 million as the break even point. Reportedly they had some help with financing the film that lowered the break even point to around $750 million. That would put a $150 million profit at $1.05 billion.

Making $150 million on $750 million is just ridiculous. That would put the budget at $225 million. We know the movie cost way more than that. The production budget alone was $250 million.

Actually, it did not cost them $450. They got a $35 million tax credit on filming in New York. A lot of marketing spending was cross promotion that they did not lose money on but got paid back for. Who knows what kind of money they saved recently, but I have not seen any commercials lately on the film. I think they scaled back expenses on adverstising big time after the openeing week to make more profit, because it would have cost more to spend all the planned adverstising then they would have made back for it.

You are looking at projected budgets, not on what they spent. They actually only spent an estimated $330 million on combined production and marketing costs.

 

[chaseter]

Link

 

[XSpidercideX]

Link

Tax credit (it actually says up to $45 million, not $35):
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyph...-moviegoers-but-leaves-taxpayers-in-a-tangle/

Total budget at $330 (production + P&A):
http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/movies/the-amazing-spider-man-2-2014

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Link

Deadline has it at $255 million production and $185-190 million promotional. I'm on my phone so it isn't easy to copy the link.

Even if it was $330 million it would put the break even point at around $660 million, not $450 million which would be required to make a $150 million profit at a $750 million gross. Either way you look at it, his math simply doesn't work.

 

[Lighthouse]

Even if this movie does make a profit, no one is going to be happy with putting in this much work to make such little profit. Especially the stockholders.

 

[spiderman2]

Yeah they cant be happy to make like 30 million less or so when they spent more money had the movie had less compitaion then the first one. If this movie had to deal with to big movie like dark knight rises and avengers we would probly be looking at a movie that would only make like 650 ww. I don't think the next one will make less no matter what like some people are saying but even if the movie is good it is going to take a few good spider man movies to really get people back. If asm3 is good or even great I could see the movie making like 280 usa and like 540 outside for 820 and then if asm4 is good to then I think we could see a really big jump have have something like 400 usa 800 outside for 1.2 but they have got to make asm3 and asm4 good to get peoples trust back in the movies.

 

[Spider-Ock]

Yeah they cant be happy to make like 30 million less or so when they spent more money had the movie had less compitaion then the first one. If this movie had to deal with to big movie like dark knight rises and avengers we would probly be looking at a movie that would only make like 650 ww. I don't think the next one will make less no matter what like some people are saying but even if the movie is good it is going to take a few good spider man movies to really get people back. If asm3 is good or even great I could see the movie making like 280 usa and like 540 outside for 820 and then if asm4 is good to then I think we could see a really big jump have have something like 400 usa 800 outside for 1.2 but they have got to make asm3 and asm4 good to get peoples trust back in the movies.

There is no way ASM3 can make 280 mil in the US if they release it in 2016. 2016 already has a crowded slate of movies with big potential moneymakers like BvS, Cap 3 and Age of Apocalypse. By the time ASM3 comes, it'll be sandwiched between these event-like films. Even with positive reviews and good word of mouth, which is very unlikely to say the least, it can get to 205 mill at the highest. If ASM3 comes out in 2016, the movie's biggest hope is 600 mill.

 

[spiderman2]

There is no way ASM3 can make 280 mil in the US if they release it in 2016. 2016 already has a crowded slate of movies with big potential moneymakers like BvS, Cap 3 and Age of Apocalypse. By the time ASM3 comes, it'll be sandwiched between these event-like films. Even with positive reviews and good word of mouth, which is very unlikely to say the least, it can get to 205 mill at the highest. If ASM3 comes out in 2016, the movie's biggest hope is 600 mill.

While I think that may be best cause like if the movie gets around a 90 on RT. Maybe it would be better to have the movie come out in like December or something. I don't know I have heard that 2015 is supposed to be a really big year but at the same time I think a few of the movies are now 2016 instead. The next piraites I think is 2016 and was going to be 2015 before and BVS was going to be 2015 then became 2016 and I think star wars may be 2016 now not sure about that one. ASM2 Is probly going to finish around 720-740 million I don't know if asm3 would drop another 120-140 million if he movie where to get great reviews. Any changes that cap 3 could flop? I think there is no way BVS flops even the movie got a 1% on RT has having super man and batman on the screen together is going to create quite the hype and I am sure the next avengers will do quite while to.

 

[spiderman2]

If asm3 where to make only 600 million then I think for sure sony would sale spider man. Spidy has already lost like 40-45% of its ticket sals form the spider man 1-3 days if the next spider man only made 600 million that would be another drop of like 16% now you are looking at like a 56-61% drop form spider man 1-3 days and the movies cost to much to only make 600 million and to still make.

 

[Spider-Ock]

While I think that may be best cause like if the movie gets around a 90 on RT. Maybe it would be better to have the movie come out in like December or something. I don't know I have heard that 2015 is supposed to be a really big year but at the same time I think a few of the movies are now 2016 instead. The next piraites I think is 2016 and was going to be 2015 before and BVS was going to be 2015 then became 2016 and I think star wars may be 2016 now not sure about that one. ASM2 Is probly going to finish around 720-740 million I don't know if asm3 would drop another 120-140 million if he movie where to get great reviews. Any changes that cap 3 could flop? I think there is no way BVS flops even the movie got a 1% on RT has having super man and batman on the screen together is going to create quite the hype and I am sure the next avengers will do quite while to.

The next avengers will likely touch 2 billion. BvS will probably make around the first Avengers Gross, give or take 200 mill. Coming off of TWS and Avengers 2, Cap 3 is likely gonna do 800-900 mill. Basically, it's the Spider-Man of the Avengers.

If they don't shift ASM3's date to 2017, Sony might go bankrupt a little sooner.

 

[Orba]

You keep forgetting those articles are probably assuming a much larger DOM BO. As has been stated numerous times the overseas markets don't return anywhere near the profit of the DOM BO. China takes at least 50% of the profits and that starts at week one. Other countries have other deals but with each week that passes the take for the theater grows even though the numbers get counted the same. I seriously doubt this has the legs to crawl to $750m WW.

Actually I'm pretty sure that the Hollywood studios cut from China is only 25%.

 

[spiderman2]

The next avengers will likely touch 2 billion. BvS will probably make around the first Avengers Gross, give or take 200 mill. Coming off of TWS and Avengers 2, Cap 3 is likely gonna do 800-900 mill. Basically, it's the Spider-Man of the Avengers.

If they don't shift ASM3's date to 2017, Sony might go bankrupt a little sooner.

Yeah it might be better if the movie ASM3 date. If this was the past when spider man movies where consider good I don't think it would be a probly going toe to toe with those but things have changed after having 2 of the last 3 spider man consider bad and the other one being consider slightly good. Yeah BVS will be big even with bad reviews and if the movie gets really good or even great reviews will be even bigger. Oh dosnt avatar 2 come out in 2016 to? It will be interesting to see how much it makes if it can make has much has the first one or more. Man 2015 and 2016 are big. What dose 2017 look like so far? Maybe the will push it back to 2017 to try to get a better script and what not?

 

[Spider-Ock]

Yeah it might be better if the movie ASM3 date. If this was the past when spider man movies where consider good I don't think it would be a probly going toe to toe with those but things have changed after having 2 of the last 3 spider man consider bad and the other one being consider slightly good. Yeah BVS will be big even with bad reviews and if the movie gets really good or even great reviews will be even bigger. Oh dosnt avatar 2 come out in 2016 to? It will be interesting to see how much it makes if it can make has much has the first one or more. Man 2015 and 2016 are big. What dose 2017 look like so far? Maybe the will push it back to 2017 to try to get a better script and what not?

Yup, Avatar 2 is also coming out in 2016. Man, if they release ASM3 in 2016, it probably won't even be on the top 10 highest grossers list lol