The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[XSpidercideX]

didn't they think they were gonna make more money with this one than the first one?they thought putting 3 villains in was going to make more money they were wrong.you have a lot of confidence that they are going to get it right next film

This was my favorite Spider-man movie, so as I see it they improved things with this film as it is. There isn't much to get right other than streamline the story so the critics don't get all bent out of shape with multiple simultaneous plot points. The domestic decline can continue on the next one as long as they bring down the budget, and they will still profit tons from it.

Also, the lower the domestic gross goes, the harder it is to go down futher. I'm not sure where that is, but there is plenty of opportunity to turn things around in the meantime.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Sony is severely disappointed, there is no way they thought this would make less money then the reboot. The only thing they are good at executing is themselves.

 

[rayc1971]

Sony is severely disappointed, there is no way they thought this would make less money then the reboot. The only thing they are good at executing is themselves.

I agree the reboot made 262mill domestic this one probably 200 mill domestic how is that a good thing!the rebbot was suppose to be a relaunch so I could see them being okay with the 262mill but come on the second one should have made more

 

[rayc1971]

This was my favorite Spider-man movie, so as I see it they improved things with this film as it is. There isn't much to get right other than streamline the story so the critics don't get all bent out of shape with multiple simultaneous plot points. The domestic decline can continue on the next one as long as they bring down the budget, and they will still profit tons from it.

Also, the lower the domestic gross goes, the harder it is to go down futher. I'm not sure where that is, but there is plenty of opportunity to turn things around in the meantime.

wow really I tought this was a hot mess with Jaime foxx as a corny electro I did like dale dahaan as harry that's about it I thought the first one was better with the lizard and my favorite is spidey2 with doc ock

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

When they rebooted this series, I'm sure they had the trajectory of Nolan's franchise in mind. But you don't even have to go there, just look at Marvel since '08 and you pretty much see an upward trajectory of momentum at the box office. In particular worldwide. Iron Man, Cap and Thor all increased worldwide with sequels. And its pretty much guaranteed that DoFP will make more then FC this year. Spider-Man is the one exception.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I agree the reboot made 262mill domestic this one probably 200 mill domestic how is that a good thing!the rebbot was suppose to be a relaunch so I could see them being okay with the 262mill but come on the second one should have made more

I always like to stress that the 2012 reboot's box office was just fine, it was never going to break a 900-1bil. Reboots almost always have a limit on how well they do. It's the highest grossing reboot, wordwide at least.

730-750mil are huge numbers for TASM 2 but a little problematic when an astronomical amount of money has been spent making and marketing the film.

I personally don't think Sony will do it but it's in their interest to start lowering the budget not increasing it. And when I say lower I mean 190-210mil. I'm being realistic because Spider-Man costs a lot of money to put on the big screen so 170mil more likely than not isn't going to cut it. I'm not sure 190mil is quite enough either.

And for the love of all that is holy stop it with the excessive reshoots and other things that drive up the budget. I'm not talking about normal reshoots either as those are something every film has.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Sony is severely disappointed, there is no way they thought this would make less money then the reboot. The only thing they are good at executing is themselves.

It's probably almost as shocking as if Batman vs Superman were to make less than MoS.

I'm sure Sony investors are indeed somewhat pissed, as i'm sure they were promised this one would take the franchise well past the first one.

 

[rayc1971]

When they rebooted this series, I'm sure they had the trajectory of Nolan's franchise in mind. But you don't even have to go there, just look at Marvel since '08 and you pretty much see an upward trajectory of momentum at the box office. In particular worldwide. Iron Man, Cap and Thor all increased worldwide with sequels. And its pretty much guaranteed that DoFP will make more then FC this year. Spider-Man is the one exception.

yeah I think they saw this as their batman begins and that the sequels would go up like those did

 

[rayc1971]

I always like to stress that the 2012 reboot's box office was just fine, it was never going to break a 900-1bil. Reboots almost always have a limit on how well they do. It's the highest grossing reboot, wordwide at least.

730-750mil are huge numbers for TASM 2 but a little problematic when an astronomical amount of money has been spent making and marketing the film.

I personally don't think Sony will do it but it's in their interest to start lowering the budget not increasing it. And when I say lower I mean 190-210mil. I'm being realistic because Spider-Man costs a lot of money to put on the big screen so 170mil more likely than not isn't going to cut it. I'm not sure 190mil is quite enough either.

And for the love of all that is holy stop it with the excessive reshoots and other things that drive up the budget. I'm not talking about normal reshoots either as those are something every film has.

I think it was over marketed too

 

[bapi]

They should use more realistic villains in ASM3 like Kraven, Chameleon, Sin-Eater, Hammerhead or Tombstone. Basically Spidey vs. the mob. Then they could save some money.

ASM2 will finish around 710-730 - almost 20% decrease in North America and 10% in the rest of the world (without China) so it's not impossible to imagine ASM3 would make even less.

 

[bapi]

Looks like DOFP will premiere this Friday in China so Spidey should lose more than 2/3 of his screens. Ouch.

 

[sf2]

what is the total oversea number?
have the total (domestic + oversea) grossed more than 600M?

 

[Orba]

The worldwide total is at about 633million.

The problem with bragging about making $150 million is that it will have required them to have spent close to $400million to make that money, that is not that great a return on their investment. If you look at a film like Neighbors it has yet to even make $150, but even adding in marketing it probably cost less than $60million, and most of the box office is from the US where the studio gets the biggest cut. The Spider-man franchise has rising costs with diminishing returns, Sony don't even have any of the merchandising rights to help bolster the books.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's probably almost as shocking as if Batman vs Superman were to make less than MoS.

I'm sure Sony investors are indeed somewhat pissed, as i'm sure they were promised this one would take the franchise well past the first one.

That is an excellent comparison.

Like Warner Brothers would be happy with a 650-670mil grossing Superman/Batman film. I'm not even saying TASM 2 had to hit a billion like Sony probably wanted but some real growth was definitely expected. We aren't on here discussing this if the film was headed for an 850mil total because that would show growth.

 

[Tobias]

The worldwide total is at about 633million.

The problem with bragging about making $150 million is that it will have required them to have spent close to $400million to make that money, that is not that great a return on their investment. If you look at a film like Neighbors it has yet to even make $150, but even adding in marketing it probably cost less than $60million, and most of the box office is from the US where the studio gets the biggest cut. The Spider-man franchise has rising costs with diminishing returns, Sony don't even have any of the merchandising rights to help bolster the books.

How much more will it make OS? With DOFP coming to China this weekend that source of BO revenue is likely going to dry out.

 

[Iceman]

Looks like DOFP will premiere this Friday in China so Spidey should lose more than 2/3 of his screens. Ouch.

Losing China momentum will be the killer blow.

 

[Tobias]

It's probably almost as shocking as if Batman vs Superman were to make less than MoS.

I'm sure Sony investors are indeed somewhat pissed, as i'm sure they were promised this one would take the franchise well past the first one.

Not a valid comparison. B v S is a team film while TASM2 is not.

If B vs S made less than MOS it would be one of the biggest BO disappointments of all time. TASM2 would be a minor hiccup by comparison.

I imagine WB made B v S instead of MOS2 because of a fear MOS 2 would do less than MOS. That is where the comparison would be.

I think SONY is worried that TASM3 could do less than TASM2.

 

[GuestStar2004]

They should use more realistic villains in ASM3 like Kraven, Chameleon, Sin-Eater, Hammerhead or Tombstone. Basically Spidey vs. the mob. Then they could save some money.

ASM2 will finish around 710-730 - almost 20% decrease in North America and 10% in the rest of the world (without China) so it's not impossible to imagine ASM3 would make even less.

its hard to say what they should do because Spider-man has to compete with the avengers and the new cinematic DC universe and X-Men starting to get bigger and bigger in terms of storys

the most likely idea sony will go for is bigger and better, lots of effects and action to try and keep up with the other studios, that could work if done right

but like you said maybe they should go a more simplistic smaller character and story driven movie with maybe kraven, probably won't happen though

 

[Iceman]

If it's smaller and character driven people might like it but they still have no real motivation to watch 9 films about the same character in a short space of time unless they're very different. And that's nothing against Spidey (who is one of my favourite characters), it goes for ANY solo character.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

So at present we are expecting Sinister 6. I would be really interested in Kraven's Last Hunt but I doubt they can do it right. I remember loving Maximum Carnage when it 1st came out, not sure how I'd feel if I read it now. Weren't there about 15 characters involved meaning the already high budget would explode, and I remember reading many people didn't like that story. I'd be happy if they did it otherwise, although I don't think anything is going to work in the short term as I think the US audience is largely going to sit the next one out whatever they do.

I'm not sure they would ever want to tackle Maximum Carnage considering Carnage is one of the most violent rogues in Spidey's gallery. It would be really hard to do him justice without Cletus straight up wreaking havoc in NYC. Not a very family friendly version of a Spidey film. It would be easier to tackle Venom and then turn him into an Anti-Hero w/ Flash like in the comics

Divergent got worse critic reviews though. Anyway, this movie is hardly a flop. They are looking at about 20% or $150 million profit as it stands. Most movies would be jealous.

Again I believe your numbers to be wrong since you are going off an estimate by BoxOffice.com. As was pointed out to you already here:

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=28818951&postcount=416

Deadline (who is much more reliable) has the total budget around $455m and like that post states as well even if the numbers were as you claim they still would not have $150m in profit

Well, while the box office numbers are declining in domestic, they are increasing in foregin. So it isn't nearly as bad as it looks. There is only a slight decrease overall, so they can easily adjust the budget and still make a ton of money going forward on every film. And each film they make money on they have a larger pool where a loss on the next one won't matter as much.

Spider-man is still huge for them and a safer bet than other franchises when it comes to box office. It's one of their best bets and least risk when it comes to making money, even with the current trend.

This post couldn't be more wrong, per the info above this quote they are not making anywhere near the amount you are claiming. The DOM BO is in a downward spiral and it will take at least one phenomenal film before that trend stops and the hemorrhaging can be healed.

You keep acting like the overseas markets are saving this film and that is not the case. One of it's biggest markets is China and right off the bat China takes 50% of the profit that Sony would see and each week their cut goes up. That's not too mention similar deals across the world in other markets. So while the WW looks big it is actually much lower profit wise for Sony. Add to that TASM2 is about to lose it's china screens to DOFP this weekend and Spidey is going to be in a pretty bad spot come this weekend.

I admire your tenacity to try and put a positive spin on this film but at some point you have to face reality and realize that things are not going very well for Spidey and as it stands it's going to get worse before it gets better.

 

[Iceman]

I'm not sure they would ever want to tackle Maximum Carnage considering Carnage is one of the most violent rogues in Spidey's gallery. It would be really hard to do him justice without Cletus straight up wreaking havoc in NYC. Not a very family friendly version of a Spidey film. It would be easier to tackle Venom and then turn him into an Anti-Hero w/ Flash like in the comics

True, he wouldn't fit with current Spidey films. Probably won't happen for those reasons. I would have liked to see it as that series was a part of my childhood even though I wasn't that young when it came out. t:

 

[Donut]

At least Fantastic Four has no chance in hell of making more then this movie

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

True, he wouldn't fit with current Spidey films. Probably won't happen for those reasons. I would have liked to see it as that series was a part of my childhood even though I wasn't that young when it came out. t:

I remember it fondly as well, I loved the game on Sega Genesis, it was awesome playing with friends as Spidey and Venom

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

We need to remember, business ventures aren't the same as personal finance. A corporation reporting a loss can have its stock rise, and a corporation reporting a profit can have its stock tumble. It's about meeting or exceeding expectations.

Amy Pascal, head of the studio, is under fire and needs this movie to be a great success.

But Hollywood's only "chairman-auteur," as one longtime business associate called her, is under pressure as never before. It started last spring when activist investor Daniel Loeb attacked Sony Corp.'s entertainment operation for low profit margins and overspending. It didn't help matters when the big-budget movies "White House Down" and "After Earth" bombed.

Friday's "The Amazing Spider-Man 2" will be a critical test for Ms. Pascal. Not only is it a $250 million-plus swing for the fences, it is intended to set up at least two sequels and a trio of spin-offs that could boost the company's bottom line for years to come.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303948104579533552594660962

Of all the studios in summer 2014’s battle of the superheroes, Sony Pictures, which backs “Spider-Man 2,” arguably has the most at stake. Chairman Michael Lynton and co-chair Amy Pascal need the latest installment of their web-slinging franchise to deliver outsized grosses to offset the studio’s substantial investment, and reverse a recent string of domestic duds that include “RoboCop” and “The Monuments Men.”


Aside from the necessary financial boost, Sony is desperate to lift morale at the studio, which has been reeling from an onslaught of layoffs and other cost-saving moves that have rattled nerves in Culver City and beyond.

Just how big does “Spider-Man 2,” directed by Marc Webb and starring Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone, need to be? Pascal, who declined to be interviewed, has set a goal of $1 billion worldwide, say sources.

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/s...idable-foes-at-foreign-box-office-1201157653/

I don't see how it could be argued the movie's performance isn't a huge disappointment.

 

[lukebrodyg]

We need to remember, business ventures aren't the same as personal finance. A corporation reporting a loss can have its stock rise, and a corporation reporting a profit can have its stock tumble. It's about meeting or exceeding expectations.

Amy Pascal, head of the studio, is under fire and needs this movie to be a great success.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303948104579533552594660962

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/s...idable-foes-at-foreign-box-office-1201157653/

I don't see how it could be argued the movie's performance isn't a huge disappointment.

Makes you wonder what their bottom # would have been if $1b was their goal. Probably $850m.