The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[DarthSkywalker]

Why is there a drop in home media? The thing hasn't even been released yet. You could argue all the people that skipped the movie will be far more willing to take chance on the movie on DVD/Blu ray
There are also a lot of movies for May and ASM2 was an easy skip.
With a drop in domestic you 'may' see a raise in DVD/Blu ray sales/rental.

In general there is. Sony blamed a lot of their losses last year in the drop in the Blu-ray market. If I remember correctly, and this is completely off hand so I might not be exactly right, but their blu-ray division dropped somewhere in the neighborhood of 33%. Just because of that, that means overall there are less people buying blur-rays and DVDs.

TASM was received better, in a better home media market. There is no real logic to the idea that TASM2 will sell better on home media, unless the blu-ray is dirt cheap. That is one thing that helped MOS's blu-ray sell like hot cakes. It was like $15 during the holidays. But really, if they weren't willing to go watch TASM2 in theaters, the likely thing is for people to rent the film, not buy it offhand. Why would you spend $20 on something you weren't willing to watch in theaters? You are far more likely to rent it from red box or Netflix.

 

[LizardMan07]

Perhaps a directors cut would be a good incentive?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Perhaps a directors cut would be a good incentive?

To do a proper director's cut cost a good bit of coin. Could be throwing good money after bad. Though it is probably not a bad idea for a double dip.

 

[spider-neil]

In general there is. Sony blamed a lot of their losses last year in the drop in the Blu-ray market. If I remember correctly, and this is completely off hand so I might not be exactly right, but their blu-ray division dropped somewhere in the neighborhood of 33%. Just because of that, that means overall there are less people buying blur-rays and DVDs.

TASM was received better, in a better home media market. There is no real logic to the idea that TASM2 will sell better on home media, unless the blu-ray is dirt cheap. That is one thing that helped MOS's blu-ray sell like hot cakes. It was like $15 during the holidays. But really, if they weren't willing to go watch TASM2 in theaters, the likely thing is for people to rent the film, not buy it offhand. Why would you spend $20 on something you weren't willing to watch in theaters? You are far more likely to rent it from red box or Netflix.

Do Netflix play a flat fee for movies or do they give a cut of rentals sales?

You're correct, when I skip at theaters I rent the movie but if I enjoy the movie after seeing it I buy it.

 

[spiderman2]

if Sony goes bankrupt, they need to spinoff their Playstation games unit as a separate division.

I really hope that dosnt happen that would be a night mare and I hate Microsoft systems and game so that would leve me with just Nintendo who I do still like because of games like Zelda but without sony I wouldn't enjoey video games much inless someone else comes out and dose a great job like sony does. I think there is no way the movie make less then 200 million. The movie is at like 189 and should be out at least 2 more weeks I got to think it can make at least 11 in worst cause 2 weeks. I think 500 outside will happen to but I think that has a better change at not happening has it probly has less time left outside has it came out out side the usa first.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Do Netflix play a flat fee for movies or do they give a cut of rentals sales?

You're correct, when I skip at theaters I rent the movie but if I enjoy the movie after seeing it I buy it.

I am not sure about Sony's deal with Netflix. There seems to be a variety of different deals, from a flat rate for a studio's library, to paying royalties for certain amount of streams on streaming films, etc.

And yeah, if I rent and movie and like it, I usually pick it up down the road.

 

[spider-neil]

And yeah, if I rent and movie and like it, I usually pick it up down the road.

How to Train your Dragon is one such instance where I was KICKING myself for not seeing it in the cinema. I wont make that mistake with the sequel.
Betcha a load of people thought the same thing, I won't be surprised to see that the sequel blow the first movie's BO out of the water.

 

[XSpidercideX]

There are a lot of flaws in your scenario. First of all, out of the $700 million it makes for the movie, Sony isn't going to get all that. They'll get about $110 - 115 million from the domestic market. They'll only get $25 million from the Chinese market, and the split in other foreign markets aren't as generous as the US/Canada. Second, you use home video sales as if the market is as vibrant as ever. Sales of the first Amazing Spider-Man weren't impressive to begin with and the market is in a severe decline due to the transition to digital with services such as Netflix and Amazon on Demand. And with the negative reception this film has been getting, do you really think that sales of the sequel will be on par with the second? Third, typically a blockbuster film should be making its money back while still in the box office, not wait for home video to come and save it. This isn't like Kick-Ass or Dredd where a smaller budget film gets saved from total financial embarrassment due to great home video sales. And finally, "it's not too bad that Disney gets the film's merchandising?" Are you high? Because that's just absurd. Merchandising really, really helps a film out a lot to where a lot of times, it is just as important as the film itself. Just ask Disney as to why they decided to make Cars 2 despite the fact that Cars was one of Pixar's lowest grossing and rated films?

The $700 million to break even assumes that they only get a fraction of the box office. If you look at Harry Potter financials they got 56% of box office domestic and 49% overseas.

If you do the same for Spidey it will be about $115 million domestic and $250 overseas profits given a $205 + $515 = $720 WW box office. TV licensing will be about $25 million and DVD will be $50 million.

So, 115 + 250 + 25 + 50 = $440.

With the their budget it was $255 production max - $45 million tax break = $210.

Marketing was a reported $190, but with much of that being pay yourself through partner companies to give reduce taxes lets just say $120 was actual loss.

So that is about $330 total spent with $440 income, so they would have made about $110 million profit, but their financial statement would probably show only about $40 million profit if that given the full $190 being reported for P&A.

 

[Erzengel]

TASM 2's theater count is dropping more than 1,000 theaters to 2,152. To keep up with Thor: The Dark World who's theater count during Week 5 was 3,074, they have to make close to $5 million this weekend.

TASM 2 is looking to be the lowest domestic grossing CBM of the past 3 years. Behind Avengers, Iron Man 3, MOS, TASM, TDKR, Captain America: TWS, and possibly Thor: The Dark World and X-Men DOFP.

 

[The Shape]

TASM 2's theater count is dropping more than 1,000 theaters to 2,152. To keep up with Thor: The Dark World who's theater count during Week 5 was 3,074, they have to make close to $5 million this weekend.

TASM 2 is looking to be the lowest domestic grossing CBM of the past 3 years. Behind Avengers, Iron Man 3, MOS, TASM, TDKR, Captain America: TWS, and possibly Thor: The Dark World and X-Men DOFP.

Yay!!!!

 

[JOE]

Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell!

 

[Erzengel]

Just ask Disney as to why they decided to make Cars 2 despite the fact that Cars was one of Pixar's lowest grossing and rated films?

And Cars 3 is in development.

 

[JKKS085]

The $700 million to break even assumes that they only get a fraction of the box office. If you look at Harry Potter financials they got 56% of box office domestic and 49% overseas.

If you do the same for Spidey it will be about $115 million domestic and $250 overseas profits given a $205 + $515 = $720 WW box office. TV licensing will be about $25 million and DVD will be $50 million.

So, 115 + 250 + 25 + 50 = $440.

With the their budget it was $255 production max - $45 million tax break = $210.

Marketing was a reported $190, but with much of that being pay yourself through partner companies to give reduce taxes lets just say $120 was actual loss.

So that is about $330 total spent with $440 income, so they would have made about $110 million profit, but their financial statement would probably show only about $40 million profit if that given the full $190 being reported for P&A.

So international releasing costs are $0, domestic/international home entertainment costs $0 as well. Man, I wish I could own a company which makes so many things and don't even spend a dollar making them.

And as for tax-breaks, 45M is at this point nothing but wild speculation:

http://www.democratandchronicle.com...spider-man-snare-millions-tax-breaks/8632953/

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opens this weekend as the largest film production in New York's history, with $150 million spent in the state. But how much the movie will receive in tax breaks remains a cliffhanger.

The blockbuster film is eligible for a tax break that's as much as 30 percent of its production costs — which, if all of it were approved, could mean up to $45 million in credits for Sony and its affiliates.

It's unlikely that the taxpayers' costs will be that high, because not all of it will fit the criteria for reimbursement. But it will be months, if not longer, before the state knows the true cost to its bottom line because of how New York's system works.

 

[LizardMan07]

Isn't how much the film will ultimately end up at wild speculation as well? Isn't this a thread for predicting costs? Isn't that the point?

 

[JKKS085]

Isn't how much the film will ultimately end up at wild speculation as well? Isn't this a thread for predicting costs? Isn't that the point?

Well the point is to gather as many facts as you can to back your predictions up no matter what your prediction is about. The fact is the 45M tax break is a rough approximation (actually the most they can get) that has pretty much no chance to hold. Hence the article I quoted. It has been stated as a sure thing while is obviously isn't.

 

[Tymminator]

It's speculation but not wild specilation.

We know for a fact it's going to be more then what it is now currently and fall in less than 210.

I personally feel it's going to place between 198-203, but that's my speculation.

 

[Tobias]

It's speculation but not wild specilation.

We know for a fact it's going to be more then what it is now currently and fall in less than 210.

I personally feel it's going to place between 198-203, but that's my speculation.

WB walked SR to 200 million from 192 million. SONY will do the same - making sure it eclipses SR's 200 million.

 

[LEVITIKUZ]

Lowest reviewed Spidey films on RT, lowest reviewed Spider-Man film on Metacritic, lowest grossing Spider-Man film.

Boy, it's a bad time to be a Spidey fan. Plus you got that Ultimate Spider-Man cartoon and Dan Slott still writing Spidey books.

Well at least we got that Spider-Man Family Business graphic novel by Mark Waid.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

On the ballpark of what Batman Begins made a decade ago. Wow.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Lowest reviewed Spidey films on RT, lowest reviewed Spider-Man film on Metacritic, lowest grossing Spider-Man film.

Boy, it's a bad time to be a Spidey fan. Plus you got that Ultimate Spider-Man cartoon and Dan Slott still writing Spidey books.

Well at least we got that Spider-Man Family Business graphic novel by Mark Waid.

Over sixty years of comics, numerous movies and video games, and a never ending supply of merchandise, Spidey fans are spoiled.

 

[LEVITIKUZ]

Over sixty years of comics, numerous movies and video games, and a never ending supply of merchandise, Spidey fans are spoiled.

It's more of people adapting stupid Spidey stuff than Spidey fans are spoiled.

Look at DC. They have Scott Snyder on Batman who is writing one of the best Batman runs. Detective Comics has Brian Buccellato & Francis Manapul taking over.

Superman is currently gonna be taken over by Geoff Johns and John Romita Jr which is big. Action has Greg Pak writing who also writes Batman/Superman.

Wonder Woman has Brian Azzarello writing who next to Snyder's Batman is the best DC book. Superman/Wonder Woman has Charles Soule writing.

Meanwhile Marvel has Dan Slott writing Spider-Man. They have so many good writiers like James Robinson, Matt Fraction, Mark Waid and others but Dan Slott has Spidey.

The cartoon is just bad.

The Spidey films will remain bad with Avi in change.

Iron Man, Captain America, and X-Men are doing better than Spidey. That should never happen but it is.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Lowest reviewed Spidey films on RT, lowest reviewed Spider-Man film on Metacritic, lowest grossing Spider-Man film.

Boy, it's a bad time to be a Spidey fan. Plus you got that Ultimate Spider-Man cartoon and Dan Slott still writing Spidey books.

Well at least we got that Spider-Man Family Business graphic novel by Mark Waid.

This was the Spider-Man movie that should have reversed the domestic decline and it didn't even come close. And even with the expanded market and 3D tickets it's still not going to gross as much as Spider-Man 3 internationally.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Lowest reviewed Spidey films on RT, lowest reviewed Spider-Man film on Metacritic, lowest grossing Spider-Man film.

Boy, it's a bad time to be a Spidey fan. Plus you got that Ultimate Spider-Man cartoon and Dan Slott still writing Spidey books.

Well at least we got that Spider-Man Family Business graphic novel by Mark Waid.

Agreed. I haven't liked much of anything out of Spider-Man since the Spectacular Spider-Man cartoon got cancelled. The modern stuff (comics, films, cartoons, video games) are all awful.

 

[spider-neil]

WB walked SR to 200 million from 192 million. SONY will do the same - making sure it eclipses SR's 200 million.

How will they do that?

 

[Tobias]

How will they do that?

Rerelease in dollar theatres like they did with SR. If they can do it with Superman surely they can with Spiderman.