The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[LizardMan07]

Yeah even as a huge fan of the film you have to admit the film has gone pretty poorly Box Office wise.

Hopefully TASM3 does something unlikely and turns the trend around, would be nice.

 

[Erzengel]

In before the drop between Spider-Man and Spider-Man 2 is brought up.

$821 WW to $783 WW 10 years ago is a lot different then than now. Throw in that movies were around $2 less per ticket.

 

[LizardMan07]

How do you save the franchise from here box office wise? What would Sony have to do to turn these movies back into Billion+ kind of movies?

 

[spider-neil]

In before the drop between Spider-Man and Spider-Man 2 is brought up.

$821 WW to $783 WW 10 years ago is a lot different then than now. Throw in that movies were around $2 less per ticket.

Pointless bringing up the past. Cinemas charge more for tickets, there is IMAX and also 3D prices as well but 10 years ago (or further back) piracy was so rampent, home theater wasn't so sophisticated and competition to game your attention (with a million channels/YouTube etc) so it all balances itself out. The past is irrelavent because times have changed.

 

[Erzengel]

Except it is an excuse some posters are bringing up to defend TASM 2's gross by comparing it to SM2's drop.

 

[spider-neil]

The fact is Sony spent around 450M+ to produce and promote TASM2

Give me proof that that is how much they spent. Also show how much they made from cross promotions and product placement. If you can't then you have no idea how much profit Sony are making on this movie.

 

[spider-neil]

Except it is an excuse some posters are bringing up to defend TASM 2's gross by comparing it to SM2's drop.

SM2's drop from SM1 is not an excuse, it's a fact.

 

[Spider-Fan]

SM2 also had more competition and didn't have that prime opening in May spot. TASM2 is the opposite. TASM faced TDKR 2 weeks later and came out in a worse release date than TASM2, yet still made significantly more. That is bad.

 

[Spider-Fan]

No one is privvy to Sony's back end.
No one knows how much was given in product placement.
The Evian trailer would have cost a good chunk of change.
Sony are about to back up the money truck for Garfield, I very much doubt that would do that if ASM2 were the profits disaster some people out.

All of that doesn't even take into consideration DVD/Blu ray, Syndication and residuals. Sony would make its money back even if this movie had flopped.

I'm not privy to Sony's back end, but we do know Marvel gets a share of their BO revenue (though we don't know how much). Marvel doesn't have to split their backend like that, since they self produce their movies. So, their profit % is no doubt higher than Sony's. I agree the movie didn't flop, but I don't see how you can't consider its BO results disappointing.

 

[JKKS085]

Give me proof that that is how much they spent. Also show how much they made from cross promotions and product placement. If you can't then you have no idea how much profit Sony are making on this movie.

Give me proof that all the reports we've got from reliable sources that never got publically refuted by Sony are wrong. Otherwise that's just you talking out of your *** in another desperate attempt to make the movie's performance look good.

Adressing a fraction of my message is a smart move though. I guess spinning the rest would have been much more difficult.

 

[spider-neil]

I'm not privy to Sony's back end, but we do know Marvel gets a share of their BO revenue (though we don't know how much). Marvel doesn't have to split their backend like that, since they self produce their movies. So, their profit % is no doubt higher than Sony's. I agree the movie didn't flop, but I don't see how you can't consider its BO results disappointing.

Don't sony get a bigger slice of the BO pie since signing over the merchandising pie? I'll hunt for the article.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

SM2's drop from SM1 is not an excuse, it's a fact.

But what exactly does it prove? The Spider-Man franchise was in different circumstances back then and can't be compared.

Spider-Man was so huge that the only thing for Spider-Man 2 to do (with ALOT of competition) was go down. Spider-Man 2 could AFFORD to lose $30 million at the domestic box office, thanks to merchanside revenue and strong home video sales.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 needed to go UP for Sony after an underwhelming reboot. Sony viewed this as their billion-dollar Spidey. What they got is a movie limping past $700 million dollars... and truthfully they only have China to thank for that.

 

[JKKS085]

How do you save the franchise from here box office wise? What would Sony have to do to turn these movies back into Billion+ kind of movies?

Short answer they can't. Coming from 3 films with bad/mixed reception there's no way to reverse the ongoing declining trend over the course of one film. It took the X-Men franchise 2 well received films to make up for X-Men 3 and X-Men Origins Wolverine and even the critically acclaimed DoFP is doing solid/good but not gangbuster business.
The only option they have is to scale production and marketing budgets down so their film could break even with around 550 or 600M wordwide and make a small profit without the need to make 750M+ which is unlikely at this point. For this to happen they will have to plan the film better, film exactly what they need (so no more storylines and characters cut during filming) and not spend boatloads of money on reshoots to shoehorn another storyline. Scaling down marketing efforts would be easier. As we've seen sometimes more isn't always better.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Don't sony get a bigger slice of the BO pie since signing over the merchandising pie? I'll hunt for the article.

Immaterial given the fact that even if that % goes down, that % still EXISTS. They still have to give Marvel something. While Marvel Studios doesn't have to.

 

[spider-neil]

"Marvel's Thor and Captain America were among the top 10 non-sequel releases of the year and we are pleased with the performance of both films and the true benefits of our Marvel acquisition should be quite visible in 2012. First, in May, Thor and Captain America will join Iron Man, The Hulk and Black Widow in Marvel's The Avengers, the first Marvel film to be marketed and distributed by Disney. The Avengers shows great promise with a record 10 million downloads on iTunes when the trailer debuted, and it is well on its way to being our next great franchise. Then in July, Sony Pictures will release The Amazing Spiderman. We're excited about the film and expect it will drive significant benefits for Spiderman consumer products."

Division is expected to benefit next year from the release of "The Avengers" and Sony's "The Amazing Spider-Man." Disney recently brokered a new deal with the studio that enables the Mouse House to collect most of the coin from Spider-Man movie products.

"To that end, we recently completed a transaction with Sony Pictures to simplify our relationship. And then in the deal, we purchased Sony Pictures' participation in Spiderman merchandising, while at the same time, Sony Pictures purchased from us our participation in Spiderman films.

This transaction will allow us to control and fully benefit from all Spiderman merchandising activity, while Sony will continue to produce and distribute Spiderman films. We won't be specific about the economics of this 2-way transaction, but we expect it will drive attractive returns for Disney."

There ya go.

 

[spider-neil]

Immaterial given the fact that even if that % goes down, that % still EXISTS. They still have to give Marvel something. While Marvel Studios doesn't have to.

Nope, I don't think Marvel make a penny from the movie only the merchandising.

 

[Iceman]

If Sony could go back I think they could have made a different billion dollar TASM2. The possibility was there but many people heard it wasn't great before they'd already watched it thanks to such staggered release dates. You can't dip too often if you want an ongoing big budget solo character franchise. The reboot option is a trump card that should be reserved for emergencies and you should endure that it hardly becomes needed in the 1st place.

 

[spider-neil]

If Sony could go back I think they could have made a different billion dollar TASM2. The possibility was there but many people heard it wasn't great before they'd already watched it thanks to such staggered release dates. You can't dip too often if you want an ongoing big budget solo character franchise. The reboot option is a trump card that should be reserved for emergencies and you should endure that it hardly becomes needed in the 1st place.

If Sony could go back I doubt they would have redone the origin and the parents storyline would have been tied up in the first movie. Live and learn.

 

[Iceman]

Immaterial given the fact that even if that % goes down, that % still EXISTS. They still have to give Marvel something. While Marvel Studios doesn't have to.

I think the recent deal means they no longer have to pay Marvel a %age of box office from Spidey films in return for certain TV & merchandising rights. Can't fully remember the details.

 

[Iceman]

If Sony could go back I doubt they would have redone the origin and the parents storyline would have been tied up in the first movie. Live and learn.

I think they could have made a success out of TASM2 even after TASM. This is just not the right film for a portion of the audience and I think the last Spidey film a section of them will see for a fair while. Obviously if they could go back they would have even changed SM3 and no reboot would have been required at all. SM4 in the same continuity could have been massive. Venom (without Topher Grace) should have been saved for that.

 

[Erzengel]

I think most posters here aren't saying that TASM2 is a colossal failure. But if you have the lowest grossing Spider-Man movie, costing more than most of the other Spider-Man movies, that's a problem for Sony. I think with a better received movie, this could have been $850 WW. So while it's definitely not a blunder, the words underwhelming and disappointing are a little more apropos then saying Huzzah, it's made $500 WW.

If Sony could go back I think they could have made a different billion dollar TASM2. The possibility was there but many people heard it wasn't great before they'd already watched it thanks to such staggered release dates. You can't dip too often if you want an ongoing big budget solo character franchise. The reboot option is a trump card that should be reserved for emergencies and you should endure that it hardly becomes needed in the 1st place.

You're also handcuffed to story lines they already put in place. I mean the big GET that they are building to is Sinister Six and Venom. The other franchises have multiple avenues, with diverse characters. By Avengers 3, you'd have RDJ for 10 years. In 10 years of Spidey, you already had to reboot.

 

[LizardMan07]

It's a huge shame, because I've really liked the cast in this series, I think under tighter control and more prudent planning, we could have had a more succesful franchise. I like what I saw, most people don't, which is depressing.

I guess all we can hope for is a really good TASM3, which hopefully brings people back.

 

[Erzengel]

It's a huge shame, because I've really liked the cast in this series, I think under tighter control and more prudent planning, we could have had a more succesful franchise. I like what I saw, most people don't, which is depressing.

I guess all we can hope for is a really good TASM3, which hopefully brings people back.

In the tight month, there's no guarantee which of Cap 3, TASM3, Apocalypse and B vs. S which will be successful or actually good.

This reminds me when X-3 and SR came out and both of them were so disappointing. Hopefully at least half of them will be stellar. That's the problem with movies like Cap 2 and DotFP. They set the bar higher.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

It's a huge shame, because I've really liked the cast in this series, I think under tighter control and more prudent planning, we could have had a more succesful franchise. I like what I saw, most people don't, which is depressing.

I guess all we can hope for is a really good TASM3, which hopefully brings people back.

It's my honest opinion that this version of the franchise isn't going to win over many more people at this stage. It's too late in the game.

Webb and Garfield should do one more movie (making it the best they can), then get the hell out. Webb has already announced his departure, but Sony will run this franchise into the ground and Garfield deserves much better than what he has been getting.

 

[GuestStar2004]

I think they could have made a success out of TASM2 even after TASM. This is just not the right film for a portion of the audience and I think the last Spidey film a section of them will see for a fair while. Obviously if they could go back they would have even changed SM3 and no reboot would have been required at all. SM4 in the same continuity could have been massive. Venom (without Topher Grace) should have been saved for that.

if raimi had stayed on and made SM4 Chances are it would have been the last he and the cast did and like nolan who said raimi wanted his universe to carry on without him? it sounds to be like he didn't want it too from what has been said

as for throwing raimi out and the cast and bringing in new ones... just because it was in the same continuity wouldn't mean people will run to see it, infact it would probably do about the same as TASM and again it doesn't mean it would have been a better film either