The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Erzengel]

First of all there are certain franchises that are expected to do well with each release. The Star Wars and Hobbit movies should be a minimum of 900 million WW. Anything less, it's disappointing.

Spider-Man's expectations should be around 800 million minimum. It's a standard set by the Raimi franchise.

This year with TASM2 it's looking to be the 3rd highest grossing CBM behind Captain America and X-Men domestically. That was unheard of years ago.

If you want to compare it to other movies like other comic book movies those are applicable. Comparing it to Pacific Rim? A movie that was released in August, the same month where they usually don't put the tent pole pictures seeing only 4 movies in the past 30 years have grossed north of $200 and never more than $293?

 

[GuestStar2004]

So it's okay for people to bring up other movies as a stick to beat ASM2 but it's not okay to bring up movies as a defence for ASM2? Have I got that right?

Because it's done less the the it's easier for people to rip on the movie or at least have an excuse to rip on the movie

Because it done less you can think about it from the point of view that 700 is still impressive and hardly screams damaged franchise but you will never convince others of this

In the end it's better just not to try

 

[Erzengel]

DoFP and WS (regardless of profit margin) are also around the 700m mark, thus similar numbers of bums on seats. So there is more going on than perceived lack of quality as both of those movies were critically well received.

The highest grossing X-Men movie is also considered one of the worst, regardless it's at $234. DoftFP can make it close to that.

TWS outgrossed it's predecessor.

Not to mention these movies aren't Spider-Man a franchise that is use to $300 million for it's domestic gross.

Like I said in my previous post, Spider-Man was the king of the CBM box office and could be considered in the same category as some of the other non CBM popular franchises.

The fact that it's coasting to $200 million and is looking to be the lowest grossing Spider-Man movie ever? If TASM 2 was widely praised, I would say yeah it may be franchise fatique etc. but it's not that wild of a theory to say if it was better it probably would have made more.

 

[SpideyK]

And it not being as good?

That's your opinion. Don't be a ****ing *****e about it.

SM3 was mediocre, and still made much more than ASM2, so it has nothing to do with it being "good" or "bad".

 

[JKKS085]

So it's okay for people to bring up other movies as a stick to beat ASM2 but it's not okay to bring up movies as a defence for ASM2? Have I got that right?

No you haven't. But in your defence it's not a first.

 

[The Joker]

DoFP and WS (regardless of profit margin) are also around the 700m mark, thus similar numbers of bums on seats. So there is more going on than perceived lack of quality as both of those movies were critically well received.

DOFP and TWS are both bigger financial successes than their predecessors. DOFP is now officially the highest grossing X-Men movie, and TWS is way more profitable than the first Cap movie was. They both are also rated higher critically than their predecessors. They are surpassing the standards set by their predecessors.

TASM 2 is the lowest grossing Spider-Man movie, and the lowest critically rated one, too. It has set a new low standard for the Spider-Man movies.

 

[Erzengel]

That's your opinion. Don't be a ****ing *****e about it.

SM3 was mediocre, and still made much more than ASM2, so it has nothing to do with it being "good" or "bad".

How am I being a *****e?

It's not such a wild theory to say if TASM 2 was getting 95% on RT that it could have made more money?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Because it's done less the the it's easier for people to rip on the movie or at least have an excuse to rip on the movie

Because it done less you can think about it from the point of view that 700 is still impressive and hardly screams damaged franchise but you will never convince others of this

In the end it's better just not to try

That is only if you ignore how far it has fallen in just two films with the assistance of 3D and inflation and how much these films cost. Domestically, it has been falling since the first. And really, why would you ignore that?

 

[STARMAN]

There's a clear pattern of decline domestically. This just doesn't affect ASM 2 but ASM 3. With each film there's less momentum leading into the next one.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

DoFP and WS (regardless of profit margin) are also around the 700m mark, thus similar numbers of bums on seats. So there is more going on than perceived lack of quality as both of those movies were critically well received.

TWS doubled the first film, and did a lot better domestically. Those are signs of growth. DoFP has shown a ceiling domestically for the X-Men series. TASM2 plummeted domestically, and won't make up the different OS. Not with how much China is making up the box office.

 

[SpideyK]

How am I being a *****e?

It's not such a wild theory to say if TASM 2 was getting 95% on RT that it could have made more money?

You came off very snarky, honestly. If you didn't intend to, I'm sorry if I freaked out.

Anyway, ****** movies can still make lots of money, even if they're bad. I don't think the ASM2 reception has a lot to do with the reviews, but rather fatigue, tbh.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think if TASM and TASM2 were considered critically successful, I think that would have helped. How much? I am not sure. But I do think with characters like Batman, Superman and Spider-Man, they have a baseline that can rise exponentially with strong reviews.

 

[SpideyK]

Maybe slightly.

I think a lot of people here need to actually look at the numbers, before discussing box office, though.

ASM2 has made about 5 10 million less than TWS, yet everyone's going crazy and calling ASM2 a financial flop and ****. TWS hasn't been incredible at the box office, either.

Days of Future Past, however. Holy ****, that movie's making money like crazy.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Personally I think its good that it's made this amount because it will force Sony to rethink how they are doing this, just like fox were forced to do something different after X-men origins

But i am glad it's made 700 mil though because that's still impressive and whether anyone dooms and blooms it Sony won't be giving this up any time soon so it's their next move that will count here

I liked TASM2 but even I can't shrug off the feeling Sony tried to force this film into being a success, rather then patiently trying to build its momentum and ended up doing it very carelessly

The X-men franchise was able to be brought back after origins so Sony can do it too, they just need to do it right, marvel have done a brilliant job with guardians of galaxy in terms of marketing this film that no one has heard of, they ain't over confident like Sony were with TASM2 and I think it will pay off not to be, market the film but do it well, market it more clever not just with more and more footage of the film every month

 

[Erzengel]

You came off very snarky, honestly. If you didn't intend to, I'm sorry if I freaked out.

Anyway, ****** movies can still make lots of money, even if they're bad. I don't think the ASM2 reception has a lot to do with the reviews, but rather fatigue, tbh.

Yes they can. Movies like Spider-Man 3, X-3 and Pirates of the Caribbean: DMC and AWE, I think are mediocre movies at best but shine in the box office. You can credit good marketing or strong lead in movies or lack of taste .

TASM 2 had a solid lead in with TASM which got good reviews and had a solid box office gross. TASM 2 got mediocre reviews, and is the lowest grossing Spider-Man movie. On one hand it being a mediocre received movie you can say it should have still grossed more.

I liken Spider-Man to the Star Wars or LOTR franchises. They are expected to make a certain amount. Anything less than a certain amount is disappointing, and with luke warm reviews it's not hard to blame that over franchise fatigue especially when you have X-Men on their 7th film.

Maybe slightly.

I think a lot of people here need to actually look at the numbers, before discussing box office, though.

ASM2 has made about 5 10 million less than TWS, yet everyone's going crazy and calling ASM2 a financial flop and ****. TWS hasn't been incredible at the box office, either.

Days of Future Past, however. Holy ****, that movie's making money like crazy.

Again, Spider-Man should be on a different tier than Captain America or X-Men. If TASM 2 was stellar it should be in the low 800s at minimum, higher than both. The fact that it's slightly below reflects on the quality of TASM2.

 

[SpideyK]

Well, we're on the same page on about half of that, so I think I'll just settle for that.

I am of course dissapointed by ASM2's box office, as it really is the lowest grossing Spidey film to date and probably will remain. I'm just annoyed at the people overreacting and calling it a financial **** up and stuff, though.

Edit: In a nutshell, I'm fearing fatigue may be the reason for the dissapointing gross. I won't deny the reviews may have something to do with it, but I doubt it's the main reason.

 

[Erzengel]

To be honest, if this got stellar reviews I would have seen it in the theater instead of waiting for Netflix.

 

[marcvader]

To be honest, if this got stellar reviews I would have seen it in the theater instead of waiting for Netflix.

Same here.

 

[SpideyK]

To be honest, if this got stellar reviews I would have seen it in the theater instead of waiting for Netflix.

Wait... You haven't seen it?

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

To be honest, if this got stellar reviews I would have seen it in the theater instead of waiting for Netflix.

Despite fan complaints and the occasional critic-proof exception, Rotten Tomatoes and critical reviews in general do have an impact on the box office of most films.

 

[Carlo Comicus]

The franchise is officially dead.

 

[Erzengel]

Nope. Then how can I comment on the quality? Because it's not a such a leap to compare mediocre film reviews with box office success. When I do eventually see it, I may say it wasn't as bad as some people made it out to be but regardless the box office is the box office.

 

[chaseter]

So it's okay for people to bring up other movies as a stick to beat ASM2 but it's not okay to bring up movies as a defence for ASM2? Have I got that right?

TASM2 beat the Wayans Haunted House 2 so break out the champagne!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Maybe slightly.

I think a lot of people here need to actually look at the numbers, before discussing box office, though.

ASM2 has made about 5 10 million less than TWS, yet everyone's going crazy and calling ASM2 a financial flop and ****. TWS hasn't been incredible at the box office, either.

Days of Future Past, however. Holy ****, that movie's making money like crazy.

Looking at the numbers shows just how impressive TWS is. TWS cost $85m less then TASM2, and most likely much less to promote. It has done $255m domestically. It did this in April, during the middle of the school year. More importantly it doubled the box office of TFA, showing real growth. It also doesn't hurt that it was very well received, leading to future growth with Cap 3.

TASM series is showing a consistent downward tread, TWS is showing real growth. No one would be surprised if Cap 3 does $800m. Just like no one would be surprised if TASM3 didn't make it back to $700m.

Personally I think its good that it's made this amount because it will force Sony to rethink how they are doing this, just like fox were forced to do something different after X-men origins

But i am glad it's made 700 mil though because that's still impressive and whether anyone dooms and blooms it Sony won't be giving this up any time soon so it's their next move that will count here

I liked TASM2 but even I can't shrug off the feeling Sony tried to force this film into being a success, rather then patiently trying to build its momentum and ended up doing it very carelessly

The X-men franchise was able to be brought back after origins so Sony can do it too, they just need to do it right, marvel have done a brilliant job with guardians of galaxy in terms of marketing this film that no one has heard of, they ain't over confident like Sony were with TASM2 and I think it will pay off not to be, market the film but do it well, market it more clever not just with more and more footage of the film every month

I love how honesty is "doom and gloom".

Well, we're on the same page on about half of that, so I think I'll just settle for that.

I am of course dissapointed by ASM2's box office, as it really is the lowest grossing Spidey film to date and probably will remain. I'm just annoyed at the people overreacting and calling it a financial **** up and stuff, though.

Edit: In a nutshell, I'm fearing fatigue may be the reason for the dissapointing gross. I won't deny the reviews may have something to do with it, but I doubt it's the main reason.

SpideyK I like you, and I think you are easily the best regular on this board. I understand your frustration as you are clearly a fan. But TASM2 was a financial mess up. It was a film built to make $900m+, and it is struggling to $700m, with a huge domestic drop.

 

[Spiderine]

Is it a down year at the box office domestically or something? None of these films are doing well in North America. Even Xmen seem to struggle here. There have been big drop offs in the second weekend.