The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[sf2]

Sony (you'd think) aren't stupid they will have a detailed plan on whether to proceed with making Spidey movies or whether to sell. Also who says they have to sell to Disney (unless Marvel first refusal).
Would be funny if Spidey ended up at WB or FOX. How funny would that be? Spidey on the Justice League or Spidey on the X-Men.

slim chance. Sony wouldn't sell the golden eggs laying goose.

 

[sf2]

TASM cost a lot more to make, market and distribute for one. Second, TWS doubled its last film. Considering how it was recieved, Cap 3 could see an even greater boost. DoFP is going to do much better then the last few X-Men films, and is setting up another potential boost. TASM2 is declining, and badly, especially domestically.

how about we look at it from a different angle:-
a "badly received" spidey movie can do as good as the "well acclaimed" CA and Xmen movie. how much do you think a "well acclaimed" spidey movie will do? (if Sony manage to pull it off in TASM3)

relax. it isn't the end of spidey movie... yet...

 

[Ms. Marvel]

how about we look at it from a different angle:-
a "badly received" spidey movie can do as good as the "well acclaimed" CA and Xmen movie. how much do you think a "well acclaimed" spidey movie will do? (if Sony manage to pull it off in TASM3)

relax. it isn't the end of spidey movie... yet...

Not for much longer....

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Not for much longer....

Yep, the franchise is in a downward spiral and ignoring that fact changes nothing.

 

[Rocketman]

BatvSupes will not make a billion.

 

[Erzengel]

I think what sf2 is a mad Spider-Man will probably be what 10-15 million WW from the Winter Soldier even though the latter is arguably a better quality movie.

 

[Wildcard]

how about we look at it from a different angle:-
a "badly received" spidey movie can do as good as the "well acclaimed" CA and Xmen movie. how much do you think a "well acclaimed" spidey movie will do? (if Sony manage to pull it off in TASM3)

relax. it isn't the end of spidey movie... yet...

That's delusional thinking to believe they could continue making mediocre movies for ANY series & still make bank.

People didn't give a damn about TASM 2, and if part three doesn't offer anything new or worthwhile the numbers are going to be even lower.

I don't care how popular a character is, if the movies are crap nobody will be going to see them. We've seen it a multitude of times in the past.

And a Spider-Man movie hasn't been "well acclaimed" since SM-2. That was ten years ago. Every movie since then has gotten "meh" review scores everywhere.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I have just gone over the last 8 pages and all I can say is wow. There are some people that just don't want reality to be a real thing. I wont call anyone out but man some of the things I read just blew my mind with how stupid it was. Funny how a lot of them don't talk once others pop up and confirm reality

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

The fact is Spider-Man is the #1 revenue generating comic character in the world across all platforms and has been forever it seems. Bigger then Batman and every other Marvel character by quite a margin. A character more relatable then most. Yet Sony has so grossly mismanaged these films that a 200 m domestic tally is a struggle...That is truly sad but ultimately deserved. They are now the new Fox at the bottom of the ladder. No originality, just tired and uninspired.

 

[chaseter]

No way it gets $340 million more than MoS to reach $1 billion. It will get close yes but 50% more....no.

 

[Wildcard]

No way it gets $340 million more than MoS to reach $1 billion. It will get close yes but 50% more....no.

Why wouldn't it? That's entirely the point of adding Batman into the fray. Batman was the first billion dollar superhero, & did it twice back to back.

Now, I'm not saying that's the end all be all, but if Batman is used correctly (which I'm 99.9% sure he will be), this movie will get a big boost from that alone.

At the very least, I see BvS making $800-900 million. I know it's early, but I'm betting that WB will play their cards right with this one. Realistically speaking, they HAVE to.

 

[chaseter]

You are forgetting one thing...Zach Snyder.

 

[InJustice]

You are forgetting one thing...Zach Snyder.

By that logic, Michael Bay should never break a billion in his transformers movies...oh wait.

My point being that it's silly to assume no billion because of a Director's name. If anything, it'd be the plot, quality of writing, acting etc. It's not simply attributed to one thing (same goes for you pro-BvS billion dollar supporters, saying the weight of the Batman-Superman iconography isn't enough to justify that it's going to make a billion. Especially without knowing more information about it).

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I like Zack Snyder and loved Man of Steel. I'm aware of the mixed reception of the film though and unlike some of the fans in here I don't bury my head in the sand just because I enjoyed a film.

Still if a Superman movie with a mixed reception can gross 668mil then the very first Batman and Superman live action film is pretty much guaranteed at least 800-900mil. Not a billion though, only Avengers 2, Avatar and probably Star Wars are guaranteed to hit that milestone.

 

[I Am The Knight]

You are forgetting one thing...Zach Snyder.

Actually, I think having Zach Snyder will help. I feel like MOS made as much as it did largely because of the ungodly spectacle displayed in the movie.

BvS is critic proof.

 

[LizardMan07]

Here's some hypothetical situations that won't happen but are nice to Ponder

If TASM3 had amazing word of mouth and a 97% RT rating, would the film still make less than the first two?

IF TASM3 came after a cameo of spider-man in TA:AoU in 2015, would it affect WOM for TASM3?

If the marketing campaign was good, the film was good and it had good reviews before release, would it still bomb?

 

[chaseter]

By that logic, Michael Bay should never break a billion in his transformers movies...oh wait.

My point being that it's silly to assume no billion because of a Director's name. If anything, it'd be the plot, quality of writing, acting etc. (same goes for you pro-BvS billion dollar supporters, saying the weight of the Batman-Superman iconography isn't enough to justify that it's going to make a billion. Especially without knowing more information about it).

You just contradicted yourself in your own post by saying Michael Bay negates my point but then you say that it not reaching a billion would be because of the script or acting. Michael Bay says hi to you too.

Zach is involved heavily in the script and universe building. His manic ADHD style of story telling hurts his movies. If anything, he's the biggest threat to the quality of the movie. Them jumping from a Superman movie straight into a Justice League intro film by adding 4 new main characters is telling of his ADHD style. WB nixed MoS2 after it didn't do as well as expected. So now, they are going all in like Sony did with ASM2. $800 is a lock IMO. A billion...not that easy. If this had Bale as Batman, I would be singing a different tune.

 

[chaseter]

Actually, I think having Zach Snyder will help. I feel like MOS made as much as it did largely because of the ungodly spectacle displayed in the movie.

BvS is critic proof.

I'm not debating that, I'm debating the people so confident that it's a billion dollar shoe in.

Then again some people thought ASM2 would bust a billion lol.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I guess I have no reason to argue because I don't think it's a shoe in for a billion. Most films aren't actually.

Here's some hypothetical situations that won't happen but are nice to Ponder

If TASM3 had amazing word of mouth and a 97% RT rating, would the film still make less than the first two?

IF TASM3 came after a cameo of spider-man in TA:AoU in 2015, would it affect WOM for TASM3?

If the marketing campaign was good, the film was good and it had good reviews before release, would it still bomb?

I think the predecessor always effects the next film at the box office to a certain degree. No matter what I think TASM 3 is making less than the second one.

 

[spiderman2]

Here's some hypothetical situations that won't happen but are nice to Ponder

If TASM3 had amazing word of mouth and a 97% RT rating, would the film still make less than the first two?

IF TASM3 came after a cameo of spider-man in TA:AoU in 2015, would it affect WOM for TASM3?

If the marketing campaign was good, the film was good and it had good reviews before release, would it still bomb?

If asm3 got a 97% and great WOM it would make at worse the same has the first 2 and that is if it had a bad realize date if it had a good date it would make more. The cameo I don't know.

 

[chaseter]

In the next few years more and more films will join the club due to the expanding OS markets....which is exploding.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Here's some hypothetical situations that won't happen but are nice to Ponder

If TASM3 had amazing word of mouth and a 97% RT rating, would the film still make less than the first two?

More than likely it would hit the same numbers as TASM in that situation, maybe slightly more

IF TASM3 came after a cameo of spider-man in TA:AoU in 2015, would it affect WOM for TASM3?

It has already been a proven factor in Hollywood with the Avengers bump, so that should answer your question. Assuming AoU meets the minimum expectations of most than anything MCu related will be elevated

If the marketing campaign was good, the film was good and it had good reviews before release, would it still bomb?

Again more than likely because of the previous 2 films it would be a very long uphill battle. In that circumstance again it would probably Do a little more than TASM

It's going to take at least two amazing, spectacular, dare I say SUPERIOR movie for Spidey to get out of this downward spiral he is in right now. There is going to be one that has to ease the GA into it by literally blowing away at least 90% of the GA and then a follow up that takes it to another level.

I still say Sony's best bet to do this would be to hold of on S6 and delve into the mutliverse with Spidey using Pete to tie it all together and Madame Webb to expand the universe. That way they could have Miles, SM 2099, SM Noir, 616, etc. and it would be a way to rest the main franchise while at the same time revitalizing the franchise and breathing new life into it. They can still do S6 and the expanded universe like they want but they need to think bigger with their brand.

Granted I don't know how their contract works and they may not have access to Miles since he was created well after the right were sold but I think if they wanted it bad enough and after a few successful movies Marvel would be willing to let them use him for the right price assuming the see the franchise is going in the right direction.

 

[spiderman2]

I like Zack Snyder and loved Man of Steel. I'm aware of the mixed reception of the film though and unlike some of the fans in here I don't bury my head in the sand just because I enjoyed a film.

Still if a Superman movie with a mixed reception can gross 668mil then the very first Batman and Superman live action film is pretty much guaranteed at least 800-900mil. Not a billion though, only Avengers 2, Avatar and probably Star Wars are guaranteed to hit that milestone.

I think batman vs superman is a lock you are talking about 2 of the 3 most popular superheros in the world together for the first time. I don't know about star wars has I think the prequals turned a lot of people away. I don't even really now if I real like the new star wars I need a preview to gain confidence and its going to be wired with out yoda or dark vadar in the movie.

 

[I Am The Knight]

I'm not debating that, I'm debating the people so confident that it's a billion dollar shoe in.

Then again some people thought ASM2 would bust a billion lol.

Well, who knows. I think it has a good shot at a billion. It's called Batman V. Superman but it's basically a team up film. As long as it's not horrid, it should be joining the billion dollar club.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Here's some hypothetical situations that won't happen but are nice to Ponder

If TASM3 had amazing word of mouth and a 97% RT rating, would the film still make less than the first two?

IF TASM3 came after a cameo of spider-man in TA:AoU in 2015, would it affect WOM for TASM3?

If the marketing campaign was good, the film was good and it had good reviews before release, would it still bomb?

Good film? Good Marketing? Cameos? Fat chance.