The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think batman vs superman is a lock you are talking about 2 of the 3 most popular superheros in the world together for the first time. I don't know about star wars has I think the prequals turned a lot of people away. I don't even really now if I real like the new star wars I need a preview to gain confidence and its going to be wired with out yoda or dark vadar in the movie.

Maybe you will be correct but I just can't think that because I've seen plenty of fans say such and such movie is a lock do this and that film doesn't do it. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 fans were sure it was going to do 900mil, the Thor: The Dark World fans were sure it was going to do about 900mil as well. The Man of Stee fans got overly excited as well with their predictions. There has been a lot of over zealous predictions for comicbook films by fans and studio people alike and a billion is not easy to obtain so I'm unwilling to say BvS is a lock to make a billion.

 

[chaseter]

Avengers 2 is a lock for a billion. That's about the only superhero movie in the next couple of years I would bet on beating a billion.

 

[spider-neil]

Avengers 2 is a lock for a billion. That's about the only superhero movie in the next couple of years I would bet on beating a billion.

BvS is a lock for a billion as well.

 

[spider-neil]

I think it will take two critically well received movies not just one to get Spidey back on track.
I'm also curious to see how well TASM2 does on home video because all of my non comic book family members liked the movie. My brother wasn't going to bother to watch ASM2 at the cinema because he thought ASM1 was lacklustre (how many of the GA felt the same way). I begged him to watch the sequel and he loved it, he told me both him and his girlfriend cried. I'm curious, how many of the GA avoided ASM2 because ASM did nothing for them?

You are far more likely to take a chance on home video rental than cough up a high cinema ticket price. My fiancé saw the RT score and was expecting the worst movie ever and really enjoyed the movie.

Obviously, my family members are just a tiny fraction of the GA so probably doesn't mean anything, we'll see.

 

[spiderman2]

I think it will take two critically well received movies not just one to get Spidey back on track.
I'm also curious to see how well TASM2 does on home video because all of my non comic book family members liked the movie. My brother wasn't going to bother to watch ASM2 at the cinema because he thought ASM1 was lacklustre (how many of the GA felt the same way). I begged him to watch the sequel and he loved it, he told me both him and his girlfriend cried. I'm curious, how many of the GA avoided ASM2 because ASM did nothing for them?

You are far more likely to take a chance on home video rental than cough up a high cinema ticket price. My fiancé saw the RT score and was expecting the worst movie ever and really enjoyed the movie.

Obviously, my family members are just a tiny fraction of the GA so probably doesn't mean anything, we'll see.

Yeah I agree if asm3 is really good or even great that will be a start and it will get people more excited for asm4. If both asm3 and asm4 are really good or great then I think asm4 is a lock for a billion has I think a lot of people will come back and asm4 is what 2018? So 4 more years of infalation and yeah it is not cheap to go to the movies. It cost 11 for 2d where I go and 14 for 3D and then if you by like a medium soda and popcorn that is like 14 so bam 25. ASM 1 didn't really get the GA back into the movie so if asm3 could do that it would be great. Even XMEN DOFP had frist class to bulid hype form right now spider man has nothing to bulid hype form that is why if asm3 is really good or even great I think asm4 will do great has it would have hype to bulid off of form asm3. People talk about sm3 making a lot of money with bad reviews but it had the hype form sm1 and sm2 to help it and I bet that if sm3 had gotten great reviews that the movie would have made like 1-1.1 billion instead of the like 890 million it made.

 

[InJustice]

You just contradicted yourself in your own post by saying Michael Bay negates my point but then you say that it not reaching a billion would be because of the script or acting. Michael Bay says hi to you too.

You do realize I said movies failing usually means that they have more than one problem (as evidenced in my post when I wrote "etc," "(Problems) are not simply attributed to one thing")? I'm attacking the single-minded logic that the director's name automatically dismisses a movie's potential. Not sure how I'm being contradicted considering that your use of the word "or" suggests the same single-mindedness that I'm negating.

Zach is involved heavily in the script and universe building. His manic ADHD style of story telling hurts his movies. If anything, he's the biggest threat to the quality of the movie. Them jumping from a Superman movie straight into a Justice League intro film by adding 4 new main characters is telling of his ADHD style. WB nixed MoS2 after it didn't do as well as expected. So now, they are going all in like Sony did with ASM2. $800 is a lock IMO. A billion...not that easy. If this had Bale as Batman, I would be singing a different tune.

This post is purely conjecture at best. How do we know that WB didn't force Snyder to add Batman, or force him to spend the sequel's time to build up the Justice League/DCCU world building instead Superman's world. You seem to be putting this squarely on Zack Snyder instead of looking at the forces outside of Zack's control as a possible reason (for instance, moves like Affleck not being a Snyder choice to act as Batman, and Terrio being brought on board to essentially re-write the script suggests that WB might have a stake on this too).

 

[spiderman2]

Maybe you will be correct but I just can't think that because I've seen plenty of fans say such and such movie is a lock do this and that film doesn't do it. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 fans were sure it was going to do 900mil, the Thor: The Dark World fans were sure it was going to do about 900mil as well. The Man of Stee fans got overly excited as well with their predictions. There has been a lot of over zealous predictions for comicbook films by fans and studio people alike and a billion is not easy to obtain so I'm unwilling to say BvS is a lock to make a billion.

I don't think any one thought dark world would make 900 million and even with captian America I think most people said 600 million and it made 700 million yeah a lot of people thought it would make 900 million me included but I don't think any one said it was a lock to make 900 million and again its not like batman vs super man with doing someing new for the first time it could end up making avenger numbers even depending on the reviews it gets. Yeah a billion is not easy but again with 3d infaltaion more imax and with the internation market getting bigger a billion is not what it used to be. Just in the last like 6 years there have been like 7 movies to make a billion or more before that there had only been like 6 told ever. A billion now days is more like a movie making 800 million back when sm 1 came out. A billion back in like 2002 is more like 1.3 billion today.

 

[sf2]

Here's some hypothetical situations that won't happen but are nice to Ponder

If TASM3 had amazing word of mouth and a 97% RT rating, would the film still make less than the first two?

IF TASM3 came after a cameo of spider-man in TA:AoU in 2015, would it affect WOM for TASM3?

If the marketing campaign was good, the film was good and it had good reviews before release, would it still bomb?

if TASM3 is good, it will soar. as simple as that.

the plus thing is spidey is popular and well known. if his movie is good, it will soar higher, double or triple... than let's say... Thor, CA, xmen, resident evil, or some new franchise movies.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I have just gone over the last 8 pages and all I can say is wow. There are some people that just don't want reality to be a real thing. I wont call anyone out but man some of the things I read just blew my mind with how stupid it was. Funny how a lot of them don't talk once others pop up and confirm reality

I am sorry I didn't have all the facts DJ.

if TASM3 is good, it will soar. as simple as that.

the plus thing is spidey is popular and well known. if his movie is good, it will soar higher, double or triple... than let's say... Thor, CA, xmen, resident evil, or some new franchise movies.

There is no logic to this. Double, triple Cap or X-Men? You do realize that is somewhere between $1.5bil and $2.1bil right?

Second, track record matters. The masses haven't been feeling the last three Spidey films. It is on a downward spiral. To deny it is to deny all logic and reason. But considering you think it can make $2.1bil dollars, I can see why you'd think that.

 

[spider-neil]

The spin offs and ASM3 should be all about arresting the decline of the franchise, anything above and beyond that is a bonus. Every Spider-Man movie has made less domestically than the previous movie (going all the way back to SM1). Sony will have done well if the next movie's domestic and overseas gross is higher than ASM2 otherwise I don't think they will ever be able to pull out of the diminishing returns spiral.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Guys, discuss this in peace or not at all. Thank you.

In other words, stop with the insults and that garbage. If the conversation remains heated, I will issue infractions. People can discuss their positive/negative views on the movies in peace. Give people the proper respect, or ignore this thread.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

The spin offs and ASM3 should be all about arresting the decline of the franchise, anything above and beyond that is a bonus. Every Spider-Man movie has made less domestically than the previous movie (going all the way back to SM1). Sony will have done well if the next movie's domestic and overseas gross is higher than ASM2 otherwise I don't think they will ever be able to pull out of the diminishing returns spiral.

Well apparently my last thoughts got erased. I'm not knocking you but they need to think bigger with the universe. They need to break out with SM 2099, SM noir, 616, Miles Morales, etc and anything they can think of. They can do that and rest the main franchise while giving it the break it sorely needs.

That's the problem is they keep doing what has been done, take us to the infinite universes that Pete inhabits

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

For a Spidey fan you have no imagination bro. There are numerous universes that hinge on Spidey and basically the 616 (that's Marvel comic proper if you don't know) and there is so much Sony could CHOOSE to do with Spidey. They wont because they think Peter Parker has to be the center of everything.

They could do the S6 in a mild version next film that kills Peter and his soul goes to the multi-verse where Miles Morals picks up the mantel and Pate comes a few movies later to save the day and not only would that rest the franchise and breathe new life into it.


So many moves they could make if they weren't so stupid

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I'm drinking and playing the new Watch_Dogs on PS4 and this game has a better plot than TASM2. I will argue my points tomorrow and hopefully they wont get erased.

Until then I defer to my game

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well apparently my last thoughts got erased. I'm not knocking you but they need to think bigger with the universe. They need to break out with SM 2099, SM noir, 616, Miles Morales, etc and anything they can think of. They can do that and rest the main franchise while giving it the break it sorely needs.

That's the problem is they keep doing what has been done, take us to the infinite universes that Pete inhabits

616 aside, which they have kind of done, do any of those really hold the box office potential? One of the major problems here is these films, if you are going to do them right, aren't cheap. Heck, $160m doesn't even get you that much mileage in this day and age on these types of films. Just look at some of the reaction to "hidden Godzilla".

Maybe I am wrong, but I don't feel like Sony is in the position to make "small gains", which is what those could produce at their very best imo. If Spidey proper is losing steam at the box office, what hope is there really for 2099 or Noir to turn it around?

 

[spider-neil]

For a Spidey fan you have no imagination bro. There are numerous universes that hinge on Spidey and basically the 616 (that's Marvel comic proper if you don't know) and there is so much Sony could CHOOSE to do with Spidey. They wont because they think Peter Parker has to be the center of everything.

They could do the S6 in a mild version next film that kills Peter and his soul goes to the multi-verse where Miles Morals picks up the mantel and Pate comes a few movies later to save the day and not only would that rest the franchise and breathe new life into it.


So many moves they could make if they weren't so stupid

You have to think like the GA rather than a Spidey fan. If you were on the outside looking in, would Spidey 2099, Venom, Miles Morales etc excite you? In fact I am struggling to think of a Spidey story with MASS appeal.
What is 'THE' best Spidey story of all time? Kraven's Last Hunt? Against the Juggernaut? I don't think these stories have mass appeal to make the GA sit up and take notice.

If Cameron were direction a Spidey movie.
If Iron Man were making an appearance.
If Spidey appeared in the Avengers.
The GA would sit up and take notice,

other than that I don't see Spidey pulling in massive numbers. Speculating here, but if S6 were a (relative) hit and then Venom were a (relative) hit and all seven characters were scheduled to appear in ASM3 and ASM3 was critically well received, at most I see ASM3 making 800m. And personally speaking I think that is a success as it would mean stopping the decline and right now I'd snatch your arm off for that.

 

[spider-neil]

616 aside, which they have kind of done, do any of those really hold the box office potential? One of the major problems here is these films, if you are going to do them right, aren't cheap. Heck, $160m doesn't even get you that much mileage in this day and age on these types of films. Just look at some of the reaction to "hidden Godzilla".

Maybe I am wrong, but I don't feel like Sony is in the position to make "small gains", which is what those could produce at their very best imo. If Spidey proper is losing steam at the box office, what hope is there really for 2099 or Noir to turn it around?

Agreed.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

You have to think like the GA rather than a Spidey fan. If you were on the outside looking in, would Spidey 2099, Venom, Miles Morales etc excite you? In fact I am struggling to think of a Spidey story with MASS appeal.
What is 'THE' best Spidey story of all time? Kraven's Last Hunt? Against the Juggernaut? I don't think these stories have mass appeal to make the GA sit up and take notice.

If Cameron were direction a Spidey movie.
If Iron Man were making an appearance.
If Spidey appeared in the Avengers.
The GA would sit up and take notice,

other than that I don't see Spidey pulling in massive numbers. Speculating here, but if S6 were a (relative) hit and then Venom were a (relative) hit and all seven characters were scheduled to appear in ASM3 and ASM3 was critically well received, at most I see ASM3 making 800m. And personally speaking I think that is a success as it would mean stopping the decline and right now I'd snatch your arm off for that.

I think you have me misconstrued for somebody that wants Pete to fail. You have me confused my friend. I want the whole Spidey universe explored. It has been hinted at and blatantly shown that the Spidey 616 universe is the correct one.

What I want is the FULL Spidey universe pulled in and made available. I want Pete to jump back up to the likes of Iron man and a crossover is not needed. All that has to happen is Pete becoming the center of the spidey Universe and everything that entails. That means SM 2099 which means more longevity than most franchises, Miles Morles if they have the rights which I'm sure they do after TASM, SM Noir, and many others. Hell I'm sure they could make up SM live action stuff and Marvel would have to take it!

My point is Madame Webb needs to be brought in, just like the 90's cartoon, and Sony needs to hire somebody they trust that they wont disrupt!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It may seem a bit easy, but it really does feel like the idea of the "crossover" is what is really over with the public right now. Heck it is why DC is doing it, and Fox is talking about it. It is why Sony is trying to do it themselves, even though they don't really have anything to "crossover".

 

[spider-neil]

I think you have me misconstrued for somebody that wants Pete to fail. You have me confused my friend. I want the whole Spidey universe explored. It has been hinted at and blatantly shown that the Spidey 616 universe is the correct one.

What I want is the FULL Spidey universe pulled in and made available. I want Pete to jump back up to the likes of Iron man and a crossover is not needed. All that has to happen is Pete becoming the center of the spidey Universe and everything that entails. That means SM 2099 which means more longevity than most franchises, Miles Morles if they have the rights which I'm sure they do after TASM, SM Noir, and many others. Hell I'm sure they could make up SM live action stuff and Marvel would have to take it!

My point is Madame Webb needs to be brought in, just like the 90's cartoon, and Sony needs to hire somebody they trust that they wont disrupt!

Nope, I'm not saying you want Peter/Spidey to fail, I'm saying I don't think there is mass appeal in the Spidey universe.
Miles Morales - Peter Parker knock off.
Spidey 2099 - Spidey knock off

I'm am being overlay conservative here, though. If Spidey 2099 were made in a future Blade Runner-esque world and exceeded expectations then a Spidey team up would be fairly exciting but in truth I think the GA's reaction to a knock off Spider-Man would be ambivalence.

Avengers had the advantage of 3 heroes whose worlds are completely difference to each other and then they brought those heroes together. All of Spidey's friends and foes are essentially coming from the SAME world.

 

[spider-neil]

It is why Sony is trying to do it themselves, even though they don't really have anything to "crossover".

Exactly.

 

[TeeKay]

Also, think I SEE SPIDEY and Teekay get a kick out of my smilie and gif usage.

I did.

 

[JOE]

BvS isn't a lock for a billion. Does it have a chance? Yes. Does it have a good chance? By calling in the subs with Batman, I'd say so. As long as Snyder doesn't royally screw it up Is it a lock? Definitely not.

Like chaseter said, AoU is the only movie within the next couple years that's a lock for 1B....

 

[LizardMan07]

Even AoU isn't a lock, we could have a mass plague that brings society to a halt!

 

[spider-neil]

BvS isn't a lock for a billion. Does it have a chance? Yes. Does it have a good chance? By calling in the subs with Batman, I'd say so. As long as Snyder doesn't royally screw it up Is it a lock? Definitely not.

Like chaseter said, AoU is the only movie within the next couple years that's a lock for 1B....

Batman and Superman for the first time ever with the last 2 Batman movies making over a Billion. I'd say this movie is a lock for billion. I think even the GA with no interest in comic book movies will turn up to see this. It's historic. Just like when the GA with no interest in comic book movies turned up to watch Avengers because it was the first superhero movie mash up.