The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[JOE]

Progress is progress lol. I can't wait to see what the Chinese numbers are like! They love Spidey out there.

 

[matt47]

TASM 2012
Domestic: $262,030,663
Foreign: $490,185,894

you can see why they opened earlier in foreign countries.

 

[JOE]

TASM 2012
Domestic: $262,030,663
Foreign: $490,185,894

you can see why they opened earlier in foreign countries.

That's not really a deciding factor. TWS opened first overseas and it's first movie was pretty even split.

Captain America: The First Avenger
Domestic: $176,654,505 47.7%
Foreign: $193,915,269 52.3%

 

[Spiderdevil]

Hmm so right now it looks like it might be 5-10% improvement over TASM

So it has a healthy chance of hitting 800M

 

[spiderman2]

So box office mojo today on prodections said 235 million in the usa and 470 outside that would be 705 i think they are off. They said franchise fatigue but that woud be like 57 million less then the first and the first had a lot more going agest it then this one, reboot going agest the advengers and dark knight rises. I think 300 million in the usa and at least 800 over all. They also had a break down of movies that could maybe reach 1 billion. They gave xmen and the amazing spider man 2 a 20% changes to reach a billion lol yeah right xmen is going to make the same has spider man lol. They also said best for the amazing spider man 2 850 million and how to train your dragon 900 million. The only movies i think that can reach a billion this year are the amazing spider man 2, hobit, the hunger games, transformers 4 and maybe how to train your drago has it is disney and i dont think you can underestimate disney who thought forzzen would make a billion. I do think forzzen was great best disney movie sences lion king to me. I beilve that all 3 of the first 3 spider man's where 3erd in boxoffice world wide for the year of the years they came out. The amazing spider man on the other hand was i bevile 7th for world wide boxoffice in 2012. I think worst cause the amazing spider man 2 is 5th this year in boxoffice but will probly be 3erd or 4th. I think transformers and hobit will make more and maybe hunger games.

 

[JOE]

The OW will be a good indication of where this movie is headed.

 

[def28]

So box office mojo today on prodections said 235 million in the usa and 470 outside that would be 705 i think they are off.

Yeah, I don't buy that.

 

[Brutalitops]

Yeah, I don't buy that.

Funny, the X-Men forum is swearing to it as gospel. We'll see how both movies do in 2-4 weeks. I'm not taking 'Mojo's predictions as truths when, as someone pointed out earlier, they were totally off the mark with ASM1. I'm still sticking to ASM2 being the most financially successful of the Big 4 comic book movies of the year.

 

[Leenie]

So box office mojo today on prodections said 235 million in the usa and 470 outside that would be 705 i think they are off. They said franchise fatigue but that woud be like 57 million less then the first and the first had a lot more going agest it then this one, reboot going agest the advengers and dark knight rises. I think 300 million in the usa and at least 800 over all. They also had a break down of movies that could maybe reach 1 billion. They gave xmen and the amazing spider man 2 a 20% changes to reach a billion lol yeah right xmen is going to make the same has spider man lol. They also said best for the amazing spider man 2 850 million and how to train your dragon 900 million. The only movies i think that can reach a billion this year are the amazing spider man 2, hobit, the hunger games, transformers 4 and maybe how to train your drago has it is disney and i dont think you can underestimate disney who thought forzzen would make a billion. I do think forzzen was great best disney movie sences lion king to me. I beilve that all 3 of the first 3 spider man's where 3erd in boxoffice world wide for the year of the years they came out. The amazing spider man on the other hand was i bevile 7th for world wide boxoffice in 2012. I think worst cause the amazing spider man 2 is 5th this year in boxoffice but will probly be 3erd or 4th. I think transformers and hobit will make more and maybe hunger games.

I think TASM2's domestic box office depends on how good the other May releases are, as there are a lot of them. If X-Men, Godzilla, and Maleficent turn out to be amazing movies, I think it'll hurt Spidey's box office numbers. Apparently the comedy, Neighbors, has been getting really good reviews so far (and that comes out a week after TASM2), so that movie might play a factor as well. Like I said, I think it'll depend on how good the other May releases are. Spidey may very well benefit from being the earliest May release, especially if the other movies don't deliver! Who knows.

I remember in 2007, when Spider-Man 3 came out: It did well, though there was speculation that its box office numbers might be hurt from Shrek 3 and Pirates 3 coming out in the same month. Turns out Shrek 3 and Pirates 3 were god-awful movies, so Spidey fared pretty well (despite its mixed response from the general audience).

 

[def28]

I'm still sticking to ASM2 being the most financially successful of the Big 4 comic book movies of the year.

That's my assumption as well. It's got some time to breathe in the US. 235m seems like a low prediction given the previous films box office, Spideys fanbase, marketing abundance and spectacle on display here.

 

[Leenie]

Funny, the X-Men forum is swearing to it as gospel. We'll see how both movies do in 2-4 weeks. I'm not taking 'Mojo's predictions as truths when, as someone pointed out earlier, they were totally off the mark with ASM1. I'm still sticking to ASM2 being the most financially successful of the Big 4 comic book movies of the year.

I will be shocked of Days of Future Past makes more than TASM2. Shocked!

I think the top CBM in terms of box office this year is going to be a fight between Captain America and TASM2.

EDIT: Also, I'll defend TASM2 for a second, here ... If analysts are factoring in "franchise fatigue" and how it will hurt Spidey's box office numbers, then they should DEFINITELY factor in the same thing for X-Men. The X-Men movies have always made peanuts compared to Spider-Man.

 

[bapi]

I was optimistic about OS increase but opening in South Korea is poor. Like really poor. And even 100M opening weekend in North America is not locked. 750-800M worldwide should be the target now.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

South Korea is having a big decrease right now compared to TASM, really weird, over than that, most countries (where the movie has been released) seem to be having an increase, or at the worst, steady.

For the superhero fatigue, it's possible, but even then, TASM2 will make around 800 M+ WW, which will be a great result. Pretty sure that if Cap America hadn't opened not so long ago, it could have helped.

Anyway, I don't understand the fatigue, they can give me a superhero movie every month, no problemo !

 

[Avenging Spidey]

People aren't really analysing the numbers correctly, especially the box office "experts" from the boxoffice boards.

First of all, Ray Subers has been proven to be wrong time and time again, and saying that DoFP will make big numbers, especially out of the rape-gate that Bryan Singer got himself involved is a clear sign of been off touch with what the GA is actually anticipating.

I don't remember seeing this much people praising and been excited for a film since The Avengers or Iron Man 3 when it comes to social network reactions. Not really talking about the critics, but the GA genuinely is IN LOVE with this film. This will have very strong legs, and the fact that it's going up in most countries, especially with an early April release opposed to a July one and after a reboot, I will be saying this:

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 won't be breaking any box office records, but it will get to $1 billion worldwide and at least $300m+ domestically. This May belongs to Spider-Man, and the fact that Singer got himself involved with something as nasty as a rape ring scandal will benefit TASM2 by taking down any kind of potential threat that DoFP could have.

 

[Lord]

Godzilla may also be tough competition, considering it has a healthy ammount of hype being built around it.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

Don't think so. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 looks like a great 4 quadrant film that appeals from little kids to adults, while Godzilla has more niche hype. I don't think the hype for Godzilla is much that different than Pacific Rim last year.

I actually haven't seen Pacific Rim yet and I don't even know when I'll be watching Godzilla as well, probably back to back weekend between 2014 and 2015. I'm sorry if there's any big fans out there, but I'm not seeing the mainstream appeal for that film, regardless how much Warner tries to market it.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Pacific Rim wasn't getting the buzz Godzilla was. Pacific Rim was getting good buzz, but reactions to Godzilla are overwhelmingly positive. If the reviews reflect that, then WOM of that film can hurt Spidey. But, Spidey will have 2 solid weeks before it gets challenged by Godzilla, so it has time to make good bank in the US prior to that point. But, Godzilla week 3 and DoFP week 4 are going to hurt the legs hard after that. Especially since both films target that geek demographic Spidey targets.

 

[Lord]

Godzilla has insane buzz actually, i see people who could care less about Pacific Rim being excited for Godzilla, the marketing and trailers have really hepped it sell, i'm quite sure it may end up being a strong rival, i doubt it will make as much as TAS-M 2, but it may hurt it a little.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Godzilla has insane buzz actually, i see people who could care less about Pacific Rim being excited for Godzilla, the marketing and trailers have really hepped it sell, i'm quite sure it may end up being a strong rival, i doubt it will make as much as TAS-M 2, but it may hurt it a little.

Agreed. TASM2 will make more money most definitely, that isn't the issue. The issue is, how much of TASM2's 3rd weekend and onward BO will Godzilla (and DoFP) eat into? I think everyone expects them to eat into it a little bit, but if buzz keeps going strong, then that answer might be more than we think.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

I sincerily think that Godzilla's hype will be proved heavily niche and people will act like it's underperforming, when it shouldn't make much anyway.

I also don't think that the same demo for TASM2 and Godzilla overlap that much. I don't see kids and families going together for Godzilla. I do see it for TASM2 though.

Anyway, just watched the premiere event in the Yahoo Movies live streaming and WOW. That was AWESOME. I never seen SO MUCH people at a premiere in my entire life.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

Next week, you shouldn't have any trouble finding a theater showing “The Amazing Spider-Man 2.”

Sony said Thursday that it would roll out its Marvel superhero sequel in more than 4,000 theaters nationwide on Friday, May 2.

That's saturation-level and the biggest opening of any film this year — but not a record. The widest domestic release ever was for “The Twilight Saga: Eclipse,” which Summit Entertainment debuted in 4,468 theaters in June 2010. ”The Amazing Spider-Man” opened in 4,318 theaters in July of 2012.

“The Amazing Spider-Man 2” stars Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone. Marc Webb returns to direct with a script by Roberto Orci, Alex Kurtzman and Jeff Pinkner.

Jamie Foxx, Paul Giamatti and Dane DeHaan co-star as baddies Electro, the Rhino and The Green Goblin, respectively.

“Amazing Spider-Man 2” rolled out in roughly 15 markets last weekend and brought in $47 million. It opens in nearly 25 more territories this weekend, including Russia, Korea and Japan.

‘Amazing Spider-Man 2' Will Get Massive Rollout From Sony via The Wrap

 

[Spider-Fan]

I sincerily think that Godzilla's hype will be proved heavily niche and people will act like it's underperforming, when it shouldn't make much anyway.

I also don't think that the same demo for TASM2 and Godzilla overlap that much. I don't see kids and families going together for Godzilla. I do see it for TASM2 though.

Anyway, just watched the premiere event in the Yahoo Movies live streaming and WOW. That was AWESOME. I never seen SO MUCH people at a premiere in my entire life.

As someone who also grew up on Godzilla, I can safely say that it will have a stronger kids appeal than you think. Godzilla has had a kid following for a long time. It also has a new toy line out right now, as well. So, it is not like it is some film that only appeals to adults. The film has kid appeal as well. Trust me, I know.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

As someone who also grew up on Godzilla, I can safely say that it will have a stronger kids appeal than you think. Godzilla has had a kid following for a long time. It also has a new toy line out right now, as well. So, it is not like it is some film that only appeals to adults. The film has kid appeal as well. Trust me, I know.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here, then wait and see. I don't think Godzilla can even reach $80m in the opening weekend. It'll have its cult following I agree. But nothing blockbuster like what I feel The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is about to become.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here, then wait and see. I don't think Godzilla can even reach $80m in the opening weekend. It'll have its cult following I agree. But nothing blockbuster like what I feel The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is about to become.

I don't think Godzilla is going to do TASM2 numbers OW (I agree on this), but I think you're underestimating how much of the audience it might steal that might cause a sharper drop for TASM2 come weekend 3. Yeah, Spidey is big with kids, but Godzilla also has kid appeal. It is not just the geek demographic the film is targetting. They sell toys, too. They want to reach the kids, too.

 

[Brutalitops]

I don't remember seeing this much people praising and been excited for a film since The Avengers or Iron Man 3 when it comes to social network reactions.

Um, Captain America: TWS?

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 won't be breaking any box office records, but it will get to $1 billion worldwide and at least $300m+ domestically. This May belongs to Spider-Man, and the fact that Singer got himself involved with something as nasty as a rape ring scandal will benefit TASM2 by taking down any kind of potential threat that DoFP could have.

While I think it'll make the most $$$ this summer, I don't see $1 billion here. $800-850 million is more likely, which is still an improvement over ASM.