The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Ms. Marvel]

Um, Captain America: TWS?

While I think it'll make the most $$$ this summer, I don't see $1 billion here. $800-850 million is more likely, which is still an improvement over ASM.

No according to him the buzz for TWS is nothing compared to what TASM2 is getting.

 

[flickchick85]

Godzilla has insane buzz actually, i see people who could care less about Pacific Rim being excited for Godzilla,

This is me. I wanted to be excited for Pacific Rim because I like Del Toro, but absolutely nothing about the trailers sold me. On the contrary, I am beyond sold on Godzilla. And I'm someone who's never seen a Godzilla movie other than the abomination that was the '98 version. The marketing for Godzilla has just been extremely effective, imo.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

No according to him the buzz for TWS is nothing compared to what TASM2 is getting.

I never said that. Stop twisting my words. I loe The Winter Soldier, the difference between you and me is that I acknowledge that there is quite a buzz for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 springing out of social networks, coming from people that watch the film. I always said that The Winter Soldier would get the critical acclaim, but that The Amazing Spider-Man 2 would be the popular film among the GA. It's simply have too much stuff going for it, and I'm predicting a massive opening weekend for The Amazing Spider-Man 2, north to $140m OW.

I know that Nikki Finke (one of the few with true insider sources that can predict this kind of stuff) is saying this:

@NikkiFinke · 20h
My sources say the over/under on 'Amazing Spider-Man 2' opening in North America on May 2 is $92.5M-$95M.

But I firmly believe that coming next weekend, people will realize how massive the walk ups will be for The Amazing Spider-Man 2, leading to a strong opening weekend weak weekdays and very strong weekends, in a similar pattern to Iron Man 3's.

 

[Spider-Fan]

TASM2 is not making Iron Man 3 money. I can see 100 mil happening. IM3, no way.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

TASM2 is not making Iron Man 3 money. I can see 100 mil happening. IM3, no way.

Read what I wrote carefully. I didn't said it'd make Iron Man 3's $175m OW. I'm saying $140m OW, following a pattern similar to Iron Man 3 from there, meaning it would end around $300m+ DOM.

 

[Liam_H]

I think this movie would be fortunate to make IM1 or 2 money.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Read what I wrote carefully. I didn't said it'd make Iron Man 3's $175m OW. I'm saying $140m OW, following a pattern similar to Iron Man 3 from there, meaning it would end around $300m+ DOM.

I'm not seeing $140. It is one thing to under project something, but insiders won't under project TASM2 by nearly 50 mil. Not going to happen. They will prob be within a 10 mil window.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

I'm not seeing $140. It is one thing to under project something, but insiders won't under project TASM2 by nearly 50 mil. Not going to happen. They will prob be within a 10 mil window.

I'm predicting a scenario similar to The Avengers two years ago, when weeks before the astonishing $206m OW, the insiders were talking about $150m tops.

Don't think that's a rare occurrance either, I can't name drop any other example than The Avengers now, but there are certainly others. Feel free to complete dismiss my prediction, but I beliee that my guts will actually be right about this. I haven't made such a bold prediction since I've said that The Avengers would break the OW record, and look how that went down.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I predict $280-290 million domestically. TA had more buzz than TASM2.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I'm predicting a scenario similar to The Avengers two years ago, when weeks before the astonishing $206m OW, the insiders were talking about $150m tops.

Don't think that's a rare occurrance either, I can't name drop any other example than The Avengers now, but there are certainly others. Feel free to complete dismiss my prediction, but I beliee that my guts will actually be right about this. I haven't made such a bold prediction since I've said that The Avengers would break the OW record, and look how that went down.

I have no record fo your Avengers prediction. As per your join date.

But for this projection, I'd be shocked if it got to 140 mil. I'm thinking right now, best case is IM1 or (at absoulte most) IM2 like money. Probably closer to IM1 I am seeing. Remember, TASM only opened in the US to nearly 63 mil. The fact it can even sniff 100 mil after the last movie did nearly half that is an achievement. But, I am not seeing anywhere near 140 in the cards.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

I predict $280-290 million domestically. TA had more buzz than TASM2.

That's obvious. It doesn't mean that there isn't quite a buzz for The Amazing Spider-Man 2, and I believe it could grow viral in the upcoming days, leading to a breakout OW and healthy legs that could make the film come to a $350m high end.

Here's what I'm thinking now for TASM2:

Low End: $290m
High End: $360m

 

[Arach Knight]

Avenging Spidey, you don't have to combat every person who does not agree with your high estimation, nor that offers a much lower projection than your own. This is the internet equivalent of a "guess your weight" game on the midway of a carnival.

We get it. After five or so pages, we get it. You are a massive Spider-Man fan and your emotional investment in the character and film is so high that you find it difficult to understand how anyone can expect this film to do anything less than spectacular in terms of box office revenue.

However, now is the time to accept differences of opinion and move on. At least contribute a new thought to this topic. Hey, you never know, these differing opinions could be correct. Or, you could be correct. But none of us will know for certain until this film has been on the global market for a month of overlap (meaning 30 days total from the time the film is available in all territories).

 

[Arach Knight]

I have no record fo your Avengers prediction. As per your join date.

But for this projection, I'd be shocked if it got to 140 mil. I'm thinking right now, best case is IM1 or (at absoulte most) IM2 like money. Probably closer to IM1 I am seeing. Remember, TASM only opened in the US to nearly 63 mil. The fact it can even sniff 100 mil after the last movie did nearly half that is an achievement. But, I am not seeing anywhere near 140 in the cards.

We had a same time post!

 

[Avenging Spidey]

I have no record fo your Avengers prediction. As per your join date.

But for this projection, I'd be shocked if it got to 140 mil. I'm thinking right now, best case is IM1 or (at absoulte most) IM2 like money. Probably closer to IM1 I am seeing. Remember, TASM only opened in the US to nearly 63 mil. The fact it can even sniff 100 mil after the last movie did nearly half that is an achievement. But, I am not seeing anywhere near 140 in the cards.

I think that unlike TASM1, this time TASM2 is literally the main event superhero film of the year, and saying that doesn't make me a Marvel Studios hater or a Spider-Man fanboy, it's simply the fact that Spider-Man is THE Marvel superhero character next to Iron Man when it comes to the movies.

I'm not saying that TASM2 can't make an Iron Man 1 kind of run, or even an Iron Man 2 kind of run. What I'm saying is that two years ago, a film released in the same period of time had MASSIVE walk ups and took everyone by surprise: The Avengers made history and changed the game. Then came Iron Man 3, and we all sort of predicted great things for that film. I feel that we are at a very similar situation from these two main superhero films of 2012 and 2013.

An Iron Man 2 ($128m OW) kind of opening is exactly in the ballpark that I believe The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will land, as I've said, I'm thinking north to $140m, with some epic walk ups. I could be wrong, and I don't want to be Spider-Man's Arach Knight - that's your honor - but I do think that people are underplaying the BO potential of this film, which I believe it'll be gigantic.

Regardless, less than a week for all of us to find out, and less than SIX days for me to see the film myself, next to my lovely partner in crime. t:

 

[Spider-Fan]

We had a same time post!

I think that unlike TASM1, this time TASM2 is literally the main event superhero film of the year, and saying that doesn't make me a Marvel Studios hater or a Spider-Man fanboy, it's simply the fact that Spider-Man is THE Marvel superhero character next to Iron Man when it comes to the movies.

I'm not saying that TASM2 can't make an Iron Man 1 kind of run, or even an Iron Man 2 kind of run. What I'm saying is that two years ago, a film released in the same period of time had MASSIVE walk ups and took everyone by surprise: The Avengers made history and changed the game. Then came Iron Man 3, and we all sort of predicted great things for that film. I feel that we are at a very similar situation from these two main superhero films of 2012 and 2013.

An Iron Man 2 ($128m OW) kind of opening is exactly in the ballpark that I believe The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will land, as I've said, I'm thinking north to $140m, with some epic walk ups. I could be wrong, and I don't want to be Spider-Man's Arach Knight - that's your honor - but I do think that people are underplaying the BO potential of this film, which I believe it'll be gigantic.

Regardless, less than a week for all of us to find out, and less than SIX days for me to see the film myself, next to my lovely partner in crime. t:

Avengers is an exception: not the rule. I am seeing nothing from this movie that indicates it will do what Avengers was doing. Avengers shocked everyone because it had what was considered by the GA to be B level superheroes and somehow grossed what it did based off marketing and buzz. TASM2 doesn't have Avengers buzz. Not critically or really in reaction to the film itself. When Avengers was released, 99% of the hype praised it. I'm not seeing that even here in the Spidey forum for this movie. I'd agree that Spidey is the main event hero this year, but that doesn't guarantee 140 mil OW. This movie also doesn't have a villain like The Joker to market (like TDK did).

I think the movie will do well. Don't get me wrong. I just think if your expectations are this high for the OW numbers, you might be setting yourself up for disappointment much like the Superman fans and such did when their over 650mil grossing reboot was seen as a disappoinment based on fanboy numbers.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

I could be wrong, but I sincerily believe people - insiders included - will be surprised how beyond their expetations The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will open. It's less than seven days away now, let's see if my prediction will hold up.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I literally think there is zero chance Spidey 2 opens with 140mil. I think 110mil at most. I see no reason to change my 100-102mil prediction because tracking has not been pointing to a upper 100mil opening weekend.

 

[grieven]

South Korea is having a big decrease right now compared to TASM, really weird, over than that, most countries (where the movie has been released) seem to be having an increase, or at the worst, steady.

For the superhero fatigue, it's possible, but even then, TASM2 will make around 800 M+ WW, which will be a great result. Pretty sure that if Cap America hadn't opened not so long ago, it could have helped.

Anyway, I don't understand the fatigue, they can give me a superhero movie every month, no problemo !

I'm google searching but can't find any articles about bad South Korea boxoffice for TASM2. In fact, I thought it doesn't open there til tomorrow?

Can someone please link to some data about TASM2's performance in S. Korea?

 

[Liam_H]

Box Office Forums

 

[ironman_rick]

My take as long as TASM2 TROE t grosses more than TASM it will be considered a success by Sony.

To be considered a relevant superhero and success by most fanboys i think it will have to gross more than MOS (Domestic) in my opinon.

This way Spidey will be a Top 3 A-lister....

I reckon it can do both of them.

 

[grieven]

Box Office Forums

Thanks.

Well, hoping for better opening than people are expecting...

 

[spiderman2]

My gus for OW is now 125 million. Captian america made 95 on OW and captain amrica is like the 5th most populer superhero at best while spider man is number one. Captian america just passed 600 million ww and could finsh with 700 million has it has only been out in the USA for about 3 weeks and normal movies are in theaters for around 6 weeks. Captian america is going to probly finish around 700 million and i am thinking that the amazing spider man 2 will be 900million to 1 billion that would be around 30% more then captian. So i am going to say that this movie makes around 30% more then captian did on OW and that would put it around 125 million.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

^ That's not really how it works. Most predictions are around $100 million because people expect most of its money to come OS. So if it opens to $100 million and it makes $280 million domestically, it could get to $900 M by getting $620 M OS. So it won't necessarily open 30% higher than Cap 2.

 

[spiderman2]

I am not saying that is how it works its just based off what captian america made and what i think the amazing spider man 2 will make and i think the amazing spider man 2 will reach 300 million in the USA. Also last i heard OW was projected at 95 million but that was like 2 weeks ago when i last heard and form what i have heard those numbers normal go up has it gets closer to the relese of the movie and i dont see any way that it will be less the captain america 2. I think minimu is 100 million max is 150 million for OW.

 

[SikeMullivan]

I'm guessing 100-110 OW. We'll see.