The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Joeyjojo72]

And TA opened 4 months later in Japan.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I think Ray Subers has lost his mind on this one. I realize, looking at the reviews so far, this could easily drop to the 60% or 50% range on RT, once they start coming in. However this is Spider-man, and the first film did relatively well for a reboot, and it too was effected by the Aurora shootings if you remember, it has some bad % drops around the time of the shootings, plus it lost screens to DKR.

$220M domesic? Ray Subers is smoking pot, and some of his recent predictions almost shows his bias on some of these things. Even if TASM2 sucks it will make $250-300M. Dom easily, and it's a shoe in for 800M WW.

It's freaking Spider-man!

I don't think it's as crazy as you're making it out to be. With potentially bad WOM, a lower OW, and other BIG summer tentpoles coming out right after it (Godzilla, DOFP) it's definitely possible it tops out lower than $250m. I'm not making a claim until I see the OW numbers, but if it only opens around Cap 2 numbers, I'm calling it now; it'll only gross $235m.

 

[Hammer!]

I always thought this film would gross just around where the first did. The first Amazing was good enough to bring an Audie back, maybe not good enough to draw more in, especially given the eerily similar lukewarm reactions.

 

[kedrell]

It could gross less than the last film DOM which would simply continue the trend for the franchise as EVERY film ever since 2002 has made less than the last film in North America. But I could easily see OS handling that slack and still making this slightly do better WW than the last film. I'm going with $800M WW and $245-$255M DOM which would mean around $550M OS.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It could gross less than the last film DOM which would simply continue the trend for the franchise as EVERY film ever since 2002 has made less than the last film in North America. But I could easily see OS handling that slack and still making this slightly do better WW than the last film. I'm going with $800M WW and $245-$255M DOM which would mean around $550M OS.

The theory is sound, but the problem is that more then a few OS markets have been opening below TASM. Now if China and Brazil do the business, this will be a non-issue, but $60mil more then the first? I don't think that is likely right now.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

We are in April, The Amazing Spider-Man 1 was released in the beginning of July. That certainly plays a factor in the box office, but what people aren't considering is that this film will probably have the best legs of a blockbuster film this summer. It has the right date and the time until anything relevant is released, and I don't really see Godzilla or even DoFP as too much of a threat for this film.

 

[Hammer!]

We are in April, The Amazing Spider-Man 1 was released in the beginning of July. That certainly plays a factor in the box office, but what people aren't considering is that this film will probably have the best legs of a blockbuster film this summer. It has the right date and the time until anything relevant is released, and I don't really see Godzilla or even DoFP as too much of a threat for this film.

You should. If someone is able to go to three movies his month it's Spidey, Godzilla, and X men. In April, it might have been all three for Winter Soldier. I might see one of those three more than once, but only if they are exceptional. I have a feeling Godzilla and/or X-men will be better films.

 

[Mr. Dent]

We are in April, The Amazing Spider-Man 1 was released in the beginning of July. That certainly plays a factor in the box office, but what people aren't considering is that this film will probably have the best legs of a blockbuster film this summer. It has the right date and the time until anything relevant is released, and I don't really see Godzilla or even DoFP as too much of a threat for this film.

Are you serious? Some of the posts I've seen from you border on delusional. It's one thing to be positive and another to be completely in denial about something.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

You should. If someone is able to go to three movies his month it's Spidey, Godzilla, and X men. In April, it might have been all three for Winter Soldier. I might see one of those three more than once, but only if they are exceptional. I have a feeling Godzilla and/or X-men will be better films.

Not really discussing movie quality here, I'm talking mainstream appeal. I don't think that neither of those films can appeal to the mainstream audiences like The Amazing Spider-Man 2 can.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

^ And why not?

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't think it's as crazy as you're making it out to be. With potentially bad WOM, a lower OW, and other BIG summer tentpoles coming out right after it (Godzilla, DOFP) it's definitely possible it tops out lower than $250m. I'm not making a claim until I see the OW numbers, but if it only opens around Cap 2 numbers, I'm calling it now; it'll only gross $235m.

If it opened to Cap numbers, then yes, I agree with that. I expect that this will open in the $130's, Spider-man is just too big of a name.

However, with more and more negative reviews, I do worry about the legs of the film. But the fact is this is going to make money just because it's Spider-man. Spider-man 3 made more internationally than TDK did (albeit TDK was banned in China), and TASM1 nearly made $500M overseas, so I think this film is a lock for $750M WW and very well could make a billion if the fans accept it more than the critics do, ala Transformers.

My base prediction right now is 135 OW, and 290-310 domestic 500-550 overseas.

Again it looks like the film could be rotten on RT at the rate it's going, but I have a feeling the fans will accept it much more than Spider-man 3, similar to how MoS was preferred over Superman Returns, even though SR had better critic ratings.

Godzilla is going to be a flop. I'm calling it now. That mid may release has been poison for years. It was poison for Star Trek last year which got very good reviews.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

If it opened to Cap numbers, then yes, I agree with that. I expect that this will open in the $130's, Spider-man is just too big of a name.

However, with more and more negative reviews, I do worry about the legs of the film. But the fact is this is going to make money just because it's Spider-man. Spider-man 3 made more internationally than TDK did (albeit TDK was banned in China), and TASM1 nearly made $500M overseas, so I think this film is a lock for $750M WW and very well could make a billion if the fans accept it more than the critics do, ala Transformers.

My base prediction right now is 135 OW, and 290-310 domestic 500-550 overseas.

Again it looks like the film could be rotten on RT at the rate it's going, but I have a feeling the fans will accept it much more than Spider-man 3, similar to how MoS was preferred over Superman Returns, even though SR had better critic ratings.

Godzilla is going to be a flop. I'm calling it now. That mid may release has been poison for years. It was poison for Star Trek last year which got very good reviews.

I don't think the negative reviews will be much of a problem. I do think that you're right about your $130m prediction though.

I feel this will be the film that MoS wanted to be but it wasn't: it might even get to polarize opinions from the critics, but those critics who love it will REALLY love it and praise it highly. While the "controversial" aspects of MoS turned the GA off, I feel that the action and romance in TASM2 will elevate this to some CRAZY strong legs.

Think about it for a second: This is Spider-Man, arguably looking better than ever doing some crazy ass stunts, in the film where the love of his life dies, which happens to be played by a very popular couple in Hollywood that are also dating in the real life. This is the recipe for box office gold right here. I'm not buying any predictions for this film domestically, because I firmly believe that it'll increase domestically.

I will say this: it might decrease - even though slightly - overseas. But it still will get an increase domestically. And I think that the WOM that is movie is getting - at least from social networks - are as good if not WAY better than Iron Man 3, and that's the biggest solo superhero film out there, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Nemeres]

I don't think it's as crazy as you're making it out to be. With potentially bad WOM, a lower OW, and other BIG summer tentpoles coming out right after it (Godzilla, DOFP) it's definitely possible it tops out lower than $250m. I'm not making a claim until I see the OW numbers, but if it only opens around Cap 2 numbers, I'm calling it now; it'll only gross $235m.

I doubt this will have bad word of mouth. Might not be glowing, but I think it'll do okay in that regard.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Not really discussing movie quality here, I'm talking mainstream appeal. I don't think that neither of those films can appeal to the mainstream audiences like The Amazing Spider-Man 2 can.

I'm not either. You're kidding yourself if you think there isn't wide interest in Godzilla and DOFP. There's been more buzz around DOFP than TASM2 up to this point, and Godzilla as well is a big property that is ingrained in the popculture, and the trailers are hitting well. They both target the same demo as TASM2, and they do not NEED to do TASM2 numbers to have an impact on it. You're acting like those films will just role over and die. No. Godzilla opening to $60-75m WILL have an impact on TASM2 in only its third weekend, and DOFP opening to $80-90m WILL have an impact on it in only its 4th weekend. It could be catastrophic if TASM2 opens below $100m, has a bad hold in the second weekend due to a lukewarm reception (55-60% drop) and then Godzilla and DOFP hit back to back and one, or both of those, are received better.

That's the worst case scenario, but I think it's not far off from what will happen right now.

If it opened to Cap numbers, then yes, I agree with that. I expect that this will open in the $130's, Spider-man is just too big of a name.

However, with more and more negative reviews, I do worry about the legs of the film. But the fact is this is going to make money just because it's Spider-man. Spider-man 3 made more internationally than TDK did (albeit TDK was banned in China), and TASM1 nearly made $500M overseas, so I think this film is a lock for $750M WW and very well could make a billion if the fans accept it more than the critics do, ala Transformers.

My base prediction right now is 135 OW, and 290-310 domestic 500-550 overseas.

Again it looks like the film could be rotten on RT at the rate it's going, but I have a feeling the fans will accept it much more than Spider-man 3, similar to how MoS was preferred over Superman Returns, even though SR had better critic ratings.

Godzilla is going to be a flop. I'm calling it now. That mid may release has been poison for years. It was poison for Star Trek last year which got very good reviews.

It opening to $130m seems HIGHLY unlikely right now. Seems like it will be lucky to get $105m.

I doubt this will have bad word of mouth. Might not be glowing, but I think it'll do okay in that regard.

Average WOM is bad WOM in this case. The bar Sony set for this film is for it be and do exceptionally well, and they put exceptionally well money behind it. Anything less is not good.

 

[spiderman2]

I don't agree at all about DOFP having more buzz then this movie at all. I still think this movie will make 110-120 OW and I belive we will see something at the end like 280 usa and 520 for the rest for 800 million or like 300-500 maybe even more.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

Let's see about that. I'm quite confident that there is too much noise and misinformation when it comes this film's box office numbers. I'll love to see the numbers this Monday.

 

[spiderman2]

come Monday the 5th we will no a lot more has we will have OW numbers and with the movie being out for a few weeks in some places already we should have a better idea if this movie is going to make 700 million or a billion or what ever.

 

[spiderman2]

spider man's 3 box office was great even though he movie was consider bad but the thing was it was coming off the success of spider man 2. This movie dosnt have that has spider man 3 was consider bad and the amazing spider man ok to slightly good so it is coming after 2 mixed spider man movies in a row. I don't think 300-600 for 900 is being to optimistic though. Now any thing like 1.1 billion or more I think is a strects.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I don't agree at all about DOFP having more buzz then this movie at all. I still think this movie will make 110-120 OW and I belive we will see something at the end like 280 usa and 520 for the rest for 800 million or like 300-500 maybe even more.

Every measurable venue on movie buzz would place DOFP as being more buzzed about than TASM2 since last year. Facebook, twitter, Fandango polls, etc.

300 domestic is not happening.

Let's see about that. I'm quite confident that there is too much noise and misinformation when it comes this film's box office numbers. I'll love to see the numbers this Monday.

Oh my god. It's very clear you have no idea how these things work and WHY it is we're saying what we're saying and are deferring to ONE guy because you have no idea how to gather information yourself. Just stop. You look ridiculous because you're completely ignoring facts and numbers that ALREADY EXIST. There is no let's see, it's done, period.

 

[Mr. Dent]

spider man's 3 box office was great even though he movie was consider bad but the thing was it was coming off the success of spider man 2. This movie dosnt have that has spider man 3 was consider bad and the amazing spider man ok to slightly good so it is coming after 2 mixed spider man movies in a row. I don't think 300-600 for 900 is being to optimistic though. Now any thing like 1.1 billion or more I think is a strects.

300-600 isn't just being too optimistic, it's being delusional, no offense. It is not doing well enough in OS markets compared to the last film and the tracking for the domestic OW doesn't match up for it to hit that combined with the mixed critic reception so far. It's looking like the only thing that will even save this film from doing under the first OS is possibly China and SA.

 

[spiderman2]

While I think say that DOFP has more buzz the this movie is behond being delusional.

 

[spiderman2]

Isnt the most a xmen movie has ever made only like 550 million or something. I do think DOFP looks good but not has good has this movie and I think it has way less buzz.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Adjusted for inflation X-Men: The Last Stand made $650+ million I think. I'm not sure.

 

[miltonh]

Inflation, 3D, expanding markets...

 

[miltonh]

6 hours or so before we'll know more but Saturday numbers don't look so well... It's not impossible to imagine ASM2 will need 100+ from China to cross 700M. And like 680M is decent but it would be another decrease and Sony spent like 440M or so on this project and Spidey is arguably their biggest brand... Personally I thought 800+ WW is locked but that seems very, very unlikely now.