The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[DarthSkywalker]

It is still pretty early. For all we know it could do great domestically. You never know.

 

[LizardMan07]

It could pick up in all the other poor markets too, do something unprecendented like have a better second weekend then opening weekend.

 

[Lord]

spider man's 3 box office was great even though he movie was consider bad but the thing was it was coming off the success of spider man 2. This movie dosnt have that has spider man 3 was consider bad and the amazing spider man ok to slightly good so it is coming after 2 mixed spider man movies in a row. I don't think 300-600 for 900 is being to optimistic though. Now any thing like 1.1 billion or more I think is a strects.

I disagree about tha tbeing the only reason Spider-Man 3 made money, even the general public seemed to like the film. These new ones have been making less, even witht he help of 3D and IMAX, which the previous trilogy didn't have, due to "reboot" fatigue.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It could pick up in all the other poor markets too, do something unprecendented like have a better second weekend then opening weekend.

That isn't likely.

 

[miltonh]

It could pick up in all the other poor markets too, do something unprecendented like have a better second weekend then opening weekend.

Yeah, it's basically Titanic or Avatar in disguise... t:

 

[miltonh]

I disagree about tha tbeing the only reason Spider-Man 3 made money, even the general public seemed to like the film. These new ones have been making less, even witht he help of 3D and IMAX, which the previous trilogy didn't have, due to "reboot" fatigue.

If ASM2 makes less than ASM1 then it could be the opposite - that it actually had some support from fans of Raimi's trilogy but they were not happy with the movie so had no reason to see its sequel.

 

[LizardMan07]

That isn't likely.

Yeah you're right, I'd probably be comfortable betting my house on it not happening actually.
Watch it happen and me end up in a box
Has there been any plausible explanation as to the dissapointing BO start? Surely it would do well with the GA, considering you've got the whole superhero CGI fest with a decent love story thing going. Kind of like a mix between transformers and "insert generic rom-com here", you'd think people would lap that up?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Yeah you're right, I'd probably be comfortable betting my house on it not happening actually.
Watch it happen and me end up in a box
Has there been any plausible explanation as to the dissapointing BO start? Surely it would do well with the GA, considering you've got the whole superhero CGI fest with a decent love story thing going. Kind of like a mix between transformers and "insert generic rom-com here", you'd think people would lap that up?

Well to be fair the Transformers movies have a lot more action than TASM2. I also don't think the GA cares THAT much about love stories when watching CBMs as a lot of successful CBMs haven't had (proper) romantic subplots.

 

[Lord]

If ASM2 makes less than ASM1 then it could be the opposite - that it actually had some support from fans of Raimi's trilogy but they were not happy with the movie so had no reason to see its sequel.

Many fans still watched the new films, but i think it comes down to much of the general public still having the original 3 films too fresh in their minds, that's what i see in many of the people in the cinema when the trailer for the film appears or from those i know, i don't think the franchise suddenly stopped making almost half of what it did previously (when you adjust inflation and the boost of 3D/ IMAX) just because 5 years passed or due to the 3rd film's critical reception.

 

[miltonh]

Yeah you're right, I'd probably be comfortable betting my house on it not happening actually.
Watch it happen and me end up in a box
Has there been any plausible explanation as to the dissapointing BO start? Surely it would do well with the GA, considering you've got the whole superhero CGI fest with a decent love story thing going. Kind of like a mix between transformers and "insert generic rom-com here", you'd think people would lap that up?

Personally I just think nobody outside of Spidey fanboys likes ASM1. I guess more people would rather watch SM3 than ASM1. My opinion, of course. And when people see Max Dillon or PS3-like action scenes... It just won't make them interested anymore. Things have changed.

 

[LizardMan07]

Well to be fair the Transformers movies have a lot more action than TASM2. I also don't think the GA cares THAT much about love stories when watching CBMs as a lot of successful CBMs haven't had (proper) romantic subplots.

But the GA don't know that until they pay up as the trailers make it look pretty transformers-esque in terms of action right?

I love how my sneaky white text was completely exposed in that quote too, makes me look pretty foolish.

 

[LizardMan07]

Personally I just think nobody outside of Spidey fanboys likes ASM1. I guess more people would rather watch SM3 than ASM1. My opinion, of course. And when people see Max Dillon or PS3-like action scenes... It just won't make them interested anymore. Things have changed.

The whole "Spidey-Fanboy" thing is pretty much patently false, unless you argue that 73% of critics on RT are spidey fanboys?

Can you explain the Ps3-like-actions comment to me? You're not the only one that says it and it confuses me as the movie looks way better than any video game I've seen. Or do you mean it feels like a QTE?

 

[Lord]

Not to open a can of worms, but the effects in the Transformers movies and trailers look more impressive than the ones from The Amazing Spider-Man 2's trailer. The heavy use of military and gadgets also draws in an audience many superhero films don't.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

It doesn't need to make something unprecedented to stay flat or gross more overseas than it did with the first film. There are other factors into play that some people here are ignoring it, like the difference between the release dates and the exchange rate from the countries that this has been released, which I reckon has been not many. We won't have a better picture of its box office run before it has opened everywhere IMHO.

All the film needs to do more or stay flat is legs, I believe this film will have very strong legs. I believe that the GA will totally dig this, and the WOM for it will be truly amazing, regardless of the reviews, which I believe it'll get between high seventies and low eighties. The difference of the release date changes how we should value these numbers, and I feel there is a great write up in the Scott Medelson's review for TASM2, someone should look it up, I can't do it right now.

 

[miltonh]

But the GA don't know that until they pay up as the trailers make it look pretty transformers-esque in terms of action right?

I love how my sneaky white text was completely exposed in that quote too, makes me look pretty foolish.

Action scenes in Transformers definitely look much more epic:

And I think TF1 is quite underrated. It built some connection between characters and audience. Plus robots are huge in Asia - it's very likely TF4 will make 400-500M there.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah you're right, I'd probably be comfortable betting my house on it not happening actually.
Watch it happen and me end up in a box
Has there been any plausible explanation as to the dissapointing BO start? Surely it would do well with the GA, considering you've got the whole superhero CGI fest with a decent love story thing going. Kind of like a mix between transformers and "insert generic rom-com here", you'd think people would lap that up?

It is doing well for the vast majority of films, but for a film that was suppose to blow past the first in terms of BO, it isn't going well. I'd say it is a combination of many things leading to a general apathetic take from the audience on this series, at least in the territories it is in right now.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

Well to be fair the Transformers movies have a lot more action than TASM2. I also don't think the GA cares THAT much about love stories when watching CBMs as a lot of successful CBMs haven't had (proper) romantic subplots.

That's where I feel that people are under predicting this. This has a very good potential to blow up once it's released. The combination of Spider-Man's action plus believable and tragic romance can be proved a killer combo if the film catches fire.

 

[LizardMan07]

Action scenes in Transformers definitely look much more epic:

And I think TF1 is quite underrated. It built some connection between characters and audience. Plus robots are huge in Asia - it's very likely TF4 will make 400-500M there.

Isn't that from the Avengers? Didn't hulk break one of those things? Looks very similar.

Good point though, Robots are cooler then Goblins.

 

[LizardMan07]

That's where I feel that people are under predicting this. This has a very good potential to blow up once it's released. The combination of Spider-Man's action plus believable and tragic romance can be proved a killer combo if the film catches fire.

Since we're using the fire analogy I believe the film has been covered in water AS.

Also, I think I over simplified with the transformers comment in retrospect

 

[DarthSkywalker]

That's where I feel that people are under predicting this. This has a very good potential to blow up once it's released. The combination of Spider-Man's action plus believable and tragic romance can be proved a killer combo if the film catches fire.

So what is happening in the territories it has already been released in?

 

[miltonh]

The whole "Spidey-Fanboy" thing is pretty much patently false, unless you argue that 73% of critics on RT are spidey fanboys?

Can you explain the Ps3-like-actions comment to me? You're not the only one that says it and it confuses me as the movie looks way better than any video game I've seen. Or do you mean it feels like a QTE?

 

[miltonh]

Isn't that from the Avengers? Didn't hulk break one of those things? Looks very similar.

Good point though, Robots are cooler then Goblins.

Chicago... and ILM worked on both movies.

 

[LizardMan07]

That's just a still from the movie do you mean in terms of visuals or the way the characters act? That's still better looking than any console game on the market. Especially in motion, which a movie is.

I'd get it if we weren't comparing it on a visual level, but I'm not invested in different genres of gaming enough to understand any comparisons to a video game other than ones that are graphical.

I'm not even saying your comparison is wrong, but I'd love to here why you think that! Have you seen the film by the way?

 

[Avenging Spidey]

It is doing well for the vast majority of films, but for a film that was suppose to blow past the first in terms of BO, it isn't going well. I'd say it is a combination of many things leading to a general apathetic take from the audience on this series, at least in the territories it is in right now.

I honestly don't think this is true, I feel people are reading these box office receipts from OS wrong. We are in April, and I understand that the film has been doing better in most countries than any other film this year, regardless if it's making less than TASM1.

This can be read with two different perspectives: the first film turned people off;
the different release date is playing a factor, and the film could or not have better legs than TASM1.

What I think is that this film wil have way better legs than TASM, both dom and os, and that's where the film will grow. I also believe that the love story allied to the Spider-Man action is a killer combo in the making for the GA. I'm definitely interested on how the GA will be reacting to this film in the upcoming weeks.

 

[Lord]

Isn't that from the Avengers? Didn't hulk break one of those things? Looks very similar.

Good point though, Robots are cooler then Goblins.

It was very similar, but no. The film even came out the year before The Avengers, so there were comparisons between both City battles. Most fanboys liked to talk about Avengers having great spectacle in that, but i honestly found the battle in TF 3 to be superior, even though the film itself wasn't all that good.

The TF franchise also didn't suffer a reboot while it's popularity is still big, Spidey did, and that is one of the reasons i think people have lost interest in it. There's also the Military stuff fanboys that will not leave interest in that franchise for as long as Michael Bay keeps putting some good scenes with the military.