The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Brutalitops]

If it disappoints... We might seem a team up between Sony and Marvel, right?

Doubt it. Arad has been pretty outspoken as to not having Spider-Man crossover. Sony will continue to pump out Spider-Man movies anyway.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's just that I haven't heard anything about it. When MOS did offset some of it's cost I read articles about it before the movie was released. Of course I could be wrong.

I read about LionsGate offsetting some of Divergent's cost as well. My point is if it happened there would probably have been a mention of it by now. If Sony spent 400mil without any offsets then yeah I can understand how the studio would be expecting at the very least 900mil.

 

[Tony Stark]

Doubt it. Arad has been pretty outspoken as to not having Spider-Man crossover. Sony will continue to pump out Spider-Man movies anyway.

Avi Arad has much less power now than he did at Marvel. If the film doesn't do well, he can easily be replaced. Sony and Disney/Marvel have a good working relationship (unlike with Fox) and Disney is sponsoring TASM2 they are running promos on Disney channel for it and promoting it just as they did the Marvel Studios films.

Sony wants money bottom line and Avi is not really that big of a player as he was.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think Ray Subers has lost his mind on this one. I realize, looking at the reviews so far, this could easily drop to the 60% or 50% range on RT, once they start coming in. However this is Spider-man, and the first film did relatively well for a reboot, and it too was effected by the Aurora shootings if you remember, it has some bad % drops around the time of the shootings, plus it lost screens to DKR.

$220M domesic? Ray Subers is smoking pot, and some of his recent predictions almost shows his bias on some of these things. Even if TASM2 sucks it will make $250-300M. Dom easily, and it's a shoe in for 800M WW.

It's freaking Spider-man!

 

[spider-neil]

Avi Arad has much less power now than he did at Marvel. If the film doesn't do well, he can easily be replaced. Sony and Disney/Marvel have a good working relationship (unlike with Fox) and Disney is sponsoring TASM2 they are running promos on Disney channel for it and promoting it just as they did the Marvel Studios films.

Sony wants money bottom line and Avi is not really that big of a player as he was.

Disney own the movie merchandising rights for Spidey so pushing Spidey is in their interests.

 

[Tymminator]

It might still make 1 billion, we haven't gotten any official numbers from Antarctica yet

Dude...that was cold.

 

[Arach Knight]

If it disappoints... We might seem a team up between Sony and Marvel, right?

That would certainly help Sony. However, Marvel has been clamping down on licensing. Sony's television rights to Spider-Man lapsed and Disney snapped them up (which is why spectacular was cancelled and Ultimate was produced). Marvel recently decided not to renew their video game licenses with Capcom, Konami and Activision, forcing all three to remove their Marvel titles from Steam, Xbox Live, PSN, Google Play and the Apple App Store. It would be better for Marvel to allow Sony to fatigue the franchise and return the rights rather than to perpetuate Sony's long term success with the franchise. The only way that won't happen is if Sony manages a blockbuster with each sequel and spin off.

 

[Tony Stark]

That would certainly help Sony. However, Marvel has been clamping down on licensing. Sony's television rights to Spider-Man lapsed and Disney snapped them up (which is why spectacular was cancelled and Ultimate was produced). Marvel recently decided not to renew their video game licenses with Capcom, Konami and Activision, forcing all three to remove their Marvel titles from Steam, Xbox Live, PSN, Google Play and the Apple App Store. It would be better for Marvel to allow Sony to fatigue the franchise and return the rights rather than to perpetuate Sony's long term success with the franchise. The only way that won't happen is if Sony manages a blockbuster with each sequel and spin off.

I agree with what you are saying here, but I just don't see any fatigue with this character. The last movie made 262M on what was just a retread of Spider-man1 for the most part, and as I mentioned that was with a 70% drop the weekend of the Aurora theater shootings. Had that not occurred it could have easily hit 300M.

All I'm saying is the movie is going to have to be pretty bad to amount to fatigue. While this movie may or may not be as good as the first, I can't imagine it being worse than Spider-man 3 and even then it's going to make money. They would have to make a franchise killer like Batman and Robin for that to happen.

 

[Liam_H]

You're actually saying ASM1 would've approached $300M without Aurora?

 

[Green Day]

There's genuine interest on this. There are a lot of excitement around this film and while it did get some negative reviews, the majority are positives, even with a lot of them claiming it's the best Spider-Man film yet.

When this gets to $1 Billion or short of that, don't tell me that this isn't impressive because so so and so. This looks like the TDK of the Spider-Man films, and if you look to the social networks, the feedback is overwhelmingly positive and growing. The film is gaining momentum, and once it's out in the US, I feel people will understand that Spider-Man films are honest to God blockbuster movie events.

Can't wait to see this movie proving the naysayers wrong, I root for this film almost as much as I root for Spider-Man the character himself. t:

The reviews are not that great and I do not see this opening to 120m like your predicting. The buzz for this is the same with Godzilla online.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I agree that the tragic shooting hurt the first film a little but it I don't think it would have hit 300mil and the overall reception of the film was mixed. You can say mixed to postive if you want but mixed is in there.

So far the reviews are okay for the sequel but a lot of them are barely postive. Tracking isn't always right but it was pretty damn dead on for Winter Soldier. I just don't see any signs of a breakout, doesn't mean they aren't there but I haven't seen them.

 

[bapi]

What would count as having an "underwhelming" performance in China? Under $100 million?

From China Sony would probably receive just around 25-30%. So it's still better to make 50M in UK than 80M in China. ASM1 finished with 50M from China but opened against TDKR and this market is expanding so much... Yeah under 100M would be underwhelming.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'd be happy with a 50% increase in China.

So 75 m.

100 m is not easy to get in China.

 

[Liam_H]

Unless you have giant fighting robots.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Perhaps Cap 2 had a scene with robots fighting in the Chinese version.

It would explain so much.

 

[ban1o]

If this only makes 225 million that would suck for Sony. They've really been promoting this film a lot.

 

[miltonh]

Looks like opening in Japan could be almost 50% lower than ASM1. Right now I'd bet ASM2 will make LESS both DOM and OS.

 

[miltonh]

First 2 days in Italy more than 30% down. In Australia, it's behind The Other Woman.

 

[grieven]

Ouch.

 

[spider-neil]

Oof! Oh well

 

[spiderman2]

while i said i would be shocked if the movie didnt make more then the first one but i also said i would be shocked if the movie got a lower score on RT then the first one to and look how that is going lol

 

[spiderman2]

I am hoping for a billion but a billion dosnt even really inprese me becuase the very first spider man made like 820 million and that was 12 years ago and with out 3d and spider man 2 witch made the lowest of the first 3 made around 780 and that was 10 years ago with out 3d. I think all 3 of the first 3 spider man movies if you count inflation would have made like a billion or 1.1 billion and that is with out 3d to.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

First 2 days in Italy more than 30% down. In Australia, it's behind The Other Woman.

Hmm... I'm sure things will pick up or at least I hope they will. This movie deserves to make more than the below average first movie.

This is so true:

It still remains weird to adjust to a film industry where Spider-Man is just one of the various franchises as opposed to one of uncontested box office champions. As always, we’ll see.

I'm going to hedge my bets and say, for now, a $105 million domestic opening. That's disappointing in my eyes, but thats where I feel it's at.

I feel it should be doing around $120 million, if I'm honest.

 

[spider-neil]

Disney could give Spidey a boost by putting him in Avengers 2 but they are probably thinking '**** that, the sooner the Spidey franchise is run into the ground the sooner the rights will revert'.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Disney could give Spidey a boost by putting him in Avengers 2 but they are probably thinking '**** that, the sooner the Spidey franchise is run into the ground the sooner the rights will revert'.

Yeah... they own Spidey now in everything but the movies. You can bet they are eyeing the rights seriously.

Sony is just in desperation mode now. And I don't think a Sinister Six or Venom movie is the answer to their prayers.