I remain confident the deal will happen, and not because of the rumors. Here's why:
The Spiderman franchise has been in a tailspin since SM3. Sony has no reason to believe things are going to get any better.
Marvel has been ruling the superhero box office, and shows no sign of slowing down. It's quite likely that even a portion of the proceeds from one MCU Spider-movie could prove more appealing than the risk of another Sony produced film. See the following:
-The real money for Spidey has always been in merchandising. Sony foolishly gave up those rights to Marvel. They could possibly negotiate back a cut of merchandise.
-Marvel has previously cut a deal with Universal to share distribution rights. They could feasibly do that again.
If any of these deals are tabled, no matter what Pascal and Arad feel, I'd be willing to bet the Sony execs force them to take it.