The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[Mysteryman]

I am curious about estimates for The Raven ,it just moved to April 27th .

 

[KangConquers]

So, if it grosses $740 million that is a DISSAPOINTMENT?

If it grosses $799 M, it will be a tremendous disappointment for me.

 

[Mysteryman]

Just curious,
Was there Analysis attached to the Empire prediction?

 

[Xeno]

The Empire assessment is actually heartening to me. If that ludicrous prediction is in line with what industry insiders expect, then The Avengers will be seen to have over-performed when the actual numbers are tallied.

 

[KangConquers]

Does anyone have a link to this Empire thing?

 

[Rongxin]

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=22542925&postcount=98

 

[flickchick85]

So Empire did a prediction in their April issue.

Reported budget: $300 Million

US opening weekend: $80 Million

US gross: $250 Million

Worldwide gross: $600 Million

Wow, I am all for modest predictions, but that's just ridiculous. They really think it will make less than Iron Man 2? And less than both Iron Man movies domestically? Really, Empire?

Also, looking at the scan, their prediction for US gross was actually $240m. Even sillier.

Oh well, being underestimated is certainly preferable to inflated expectations that lead to it being labeled a disappointment if it doesn't hit $900m or something.

 

[KangConquers]

Can anyone tell me what #1, 2, 3 were and what their estimated gross was?

 

[Xeno]

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=22542925&postcount=98

The summation given alongside that photo is indicative of exactly why the Empire estimation is so wildly off the mark. Like most writers who see superhero films as a Hollywood sideshow, the person who penned that piece treats The Avengers and its franchise predecessors as a joke. The box office estimate is in accordance with that attitude.


But the text is also contradictory. At the end it states: "Few films this summer have a must-see factor quite like this one. Expect it to be truly more than the sum of its super-parts." That after having implied that the grosses for Captain America and Thor made them decide that The Avengers would gross less than either Iron Man movie. Go figure.

 

[BigThor]

It's funny when people down play the successes of THOR and CA:TFA, some people talk as if they did TIH numbers.

 

[KangConquers]

Iron Man 1's adjusted domestic gross is $350 M. Iron Man 2's adjusted foreign is about $325 M. This is BEFORE we account 3-D. If it did Empire's numbers, it would mean less americans saw it than saw Superman Returns. I doubt that will happen.

 

[BigThor]

Doubt is the wrong word, impossible is more like it.

 

[KangConquers]

It's funny when people down play the successes of THOR and CA:TFA, some people talk as if they did TIH numbers.

Exactly. Thor did more outside of the U.S. than The Incredible Hulk did period. Cap also beat TIH by over $100 M dollars.

Other than Spider-Man, Batman and Iron Man, no superhero has broke $500 M ww. Cap and Thor's performances aren't even "B-list". They're both roughly even with Superman's performances (even the original adjusted for inflation) and the performances of Fox's X-movies. Their performances are looked down on due to the Iron Man fluke.

 

[Mysteryman]

My guess is that since none of the OW for Cap,Thor or TIH has been as big as the IM movies they came up with the 80 million as part of the"RDJ boost" .
Just a guess .

 

[BigThor]

Exactly. Thor did more outside of the U.S. than The Incredible Hulk did period. Cap also beat TIH by over $100 M dollars.

Other than Spider-Man, Batman and Iron Man, no superhero has broke $500 M ww. Cap and Thor's performances aren't even "B-list". They're both roughly even with Superman's performances (even the original adjusted for inflation) and the performances of Fox's X-movies. Their performances are looked down on due to the Iron Man fluke.

Yep and that's such a dumb way of thinking, "Oh they didn't do Iron Man type numbers so their numbers aren't that impressive".

 

[TheVileOne]

A lot of movies underperformed last summer and last winter, domestically at least.

 

[Mysteryman]

Still no word on Empires Top 3 box office hits for 2012?
I am guessing The Hobbit and TDKR are in there ,
The third one is either ASM or possibly Prometheus .

 

[DarthAlani]

Avengers has a strong chance of doubling Empire's opening weekend prediction.

 

[BigThor]

A lot of movies underperformed last summer and last winter, domestically at least.

THOR & CA:TFA didn't underperform though, it's not like anyone with common sense expected them to do 200 million or more.

 

[kedrell]

THOR & CA:TFA didn't underperform though, it's not like anyone with common sense expected them to do 200 million or more.

Actually with a bit more room to breathe I think they both could have crossed $200M(but just barely).

 

[BigThor]

Actually with a bit more room to breathe I think they both could have crossed $200M(but just barely).

Yeah, but they didn't have room to breathe and everyone knew that from the start.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

I agree. Especially TFA ..

 

[TheVileOne]

THOR & CA:TFA didn't underperform though, it's not like anyone with common sense expected them to do 200 million or more.

I'd say to a degree Cap definitely did. Cap's a much bigger character than Thor and he didn't even outdo Thor domestically and worldwide.

Thor I think you can say did pretty well considering he's a fairly unknown and untested character and his movie did almost half a billion dollars worldwide.

However, I think Cap definitely was a result of an extremely competitive and blood bath of a summer.

I think there was definitely some sort of expectation for Cap to do $200 million. I think it at least should've done that much considering the character's history and he's basically Marvel's Superman.

 

[Green Day]

Actually with a bit more room to breathe I think they both could have crossed $200M(but just barely).

but that is how summer works. An film would give add 10 million or more, so if there was one blockbuster not release at the sametime.

 

[TheVileOne]

It was widely reported how disappointing the numbers were for the big releases last Winter.