The Dark Knight Rises The Avengers will be direct competition in 2011

[jmc]

LOTR: Return of the King was highly anticipated 3rd installment, and alot of that was due to the fact that Peter Jackson was directing it and he was HOT at that time. Well, right now- Nolan is the hottest director in Hollywood (IMO) and when he comes back on board, people will want to see BB3. I know with myself- when i go to a movie, i pretty much know what i am going to see based on the director's tendencies.

Not only was ROTK highly anticipated, it out grossed the previous two films.

 

[FaT_tONle]

If LOTR, Star Wars, and Indy are your only examples then that is pretty weak...

It's the third film featuring Iron Man (and possibly Hulk), it will be the second sequel for both.

And???

And if my father had breasts he'd be my mother. Marvel have had one hit, one, and people aren't just going to walk into theatres, WB thought that about Superman and look what happened.

WB has had one hit.

 

[I Am The Knight]

Why are people hating on The Avengers, saying it will be subpar, that it will bomb...

 

[Anita18]

I agree... but if Avengers is everything we think it can be... I would not be suprised if it has the biggest opening weekend all time. And if it's any decent it will certainly have legs to drive it to 400 million or more.

But it's too early to tell. IM was a bona fide hit, TIH less so, but wasn't a bomb. We only know that something will reeeaaally be a hit (like, biggest opening weekend) is if previous films show that there's some quality and popularity to the future installment. Aside from SM1, the top 10 opening weekends of all time were from sequels.

And if you're talking legs, for it to get to $400m with a decent 3x multiplier, it would have to achieve a $133m opening weekend. It's too early to tell if it will be able to do that.

Heck, almost nobody thought that TDK would have the biggest opening of all time until like, a month before release!

WB has had one hit.

Not really. The original Batman was a hit, wasn't it? Harry Potter is a pretty good performer as well.

If you're talking MEGA hit, then yes, TDK is the only WB movie on the unadjusted all-time list, then Harry Potter at #22. IM is #21, and TIH is all the way down at #215. It's too early to tell one way or another.

Why are people hating on The Avengers, saying it will be subpar, that it will bomb...

Cause it's going up against my precious Dark Knight, dammit!

But seriously, you've got to have some pretty serious cajones to go up directly against a TDK sequel, because everyone knows how well the previous one did. It probably won't do as well box-office wise, but it's still guaranteed to pull in some hefty numbers.

 

[FaT_tONle]

But it's too early to tell. IM was a bona fide hit, TIH less so, but wasn't a bomb. We only know that something will reeeaaally be a hit (like, biggest opening weekend) is if previous films show that there's some quality and popularity to the future installment. Aside from SM1, the top 10 opening weekends of all time were from sequels.

And if you're talking legs, for it to get to $400m with a decent 3x multiplier, it would have to achieve a $133m opening weekend. It's too early to tell if it will be able to do that.

Heck, almost nobody thought that TDK would have the biggest opening of all time until like, a month before release!

I think IM2 can have that opening barring horrid reviews. So Avengers can easily outdo that IMO. If we are just going to wait for trailers and reviews though we really can't be making any predictions... hence we shouldn't even be having this discussion.

Not really. The original Batman was a hit, wasn't it? Harry Potter is a pretty good performer as well.

If you're talking MEGA hit, then yes, TDK is the only WB movie on the unadjusted all-time list, then Harry Potter at #22. IM is #21, and TIH is all the way down at #215. It's too early to tell one way or another.

I was talking about superhero films... BB didn't light up the box office like a Batman film should... but that was understandable.

Cause it's going up against my precious Dark Knight, dammit!

But seriously, you've got to have some pretty serious cajones to go up directly against a TDK sequel, because everyone knows how well the previous one did. It probably won't do as well box-office wise, but it's still guaranteed to pull in some hefty numbers.

WB would have cojones putting TDK 2 the same day as Avengers... obviously they like that mid July release date... but I can easily see them going for June. Marvel has already grabbed that release date. THe ball is in WB's court... I can see Marvel moving... but that's only because Avengers is so massive a project that it may need another year. BB3 won't be the overriding factor for it to move.

 

[GlasgowBat]

^nonsense.

a sequel to TDK has nothing to fear from anyone, at least for opening weekend numbers. at this moment, and things could well change, the only film that will consider moving will be avengers.

of course, i doubt it will be released at all.......

 

[Citadel30]

I think the idea of an Avengers movie is a great one.

realistically though- a ton of things have to happen between now and then for it to be pulled off and actually filmed. and if it filmed and gets rave reviews - I would say it would pull no less than 100M in an opening weekend- but there is no way it come close to breaking the BO opening day record.

I think it would do good- but not as good as TDK. I think a ton of people went to see Ledgers Joker performance... and went back to see it again... and again. Avengers needs to have that sort of attraction to get butts in seats multiple times in a weekend.

not sure how they would do that.

 

[FaT_tONle]

^nonsense.

a sequel to TDK has nothing to fear from anyone, at least for opening weekend numbers. at this moment, and things could well change, the only film that will consider moving will be avengers.

of course, i doubt it will be released at all.......

Yeah... Avengers has no chance of being released when RDJ... the biggest actor... has already signed on... Favreau is executive producer... and the rest of the cast they nab will pretty much be contractually obligated to do it. Avengers will be happening... no doubt about that. Whether it's 2011 or later remains to be seen... but as of now its 2011.

I think the idea of an Avengers movie is a great one.

realistically though- a ton of things have to happen between now and then for it to be pulled off and actually filmed. and if it filmed and gets rave reviews - I would say it would pull no less than 100M in an opening weekend- but there is no way it come close to breaking the BO opening day record.

Avengers can easily have a bigger weekend... no one thought SM3 would fall... it did. You realize IM opened at almost 100 million... so by that logic... IM2 will open at around the same amount? Laughable... IM2 will easily be over that number... then you throw in Avengers... with all the other characters... there isn't a man alive who had the slightest appreciation for Marvel characters at some point in his life that won't be in theatres for that film opening weekend.

 

[Figs]

I first predict TDK2 will come out in 2012+, not 2011. So it wont matter.

I think Nolan will need a lot of time to come up with a story that can rival or surpass TDK, so I have no problem with a wait. Let Goyer come up with some themes and some bones (brainstorm). Let Jonah fill the meat of the script. Maybe have someone else polish up the dialogue to make it less wordy (like TDK's ending).

My other prediction is, TDK2 will be like a quasi "Born Again" storyline (for those who read Daredevil, you will know what I mean). It's not Batman's fault Marvel didn't make use one of the best Daredevil storylines, so screw them t:

Were you referring to Gordon's speech or right before that with Batman Two Face and Gordon arguing?

Either way I'd prefer that over a typical action ending.

 

[Dark Knight]

Avengers has too many unanswered variables working against it currently. I would like to see who the director is for this "supposed' Avenger film first and foremost. Plus Ed Norton will most likely not be back if they have the Hulk in it. Will they be able to pull off Thor without making him seem silly and cheesy?

Then they have the whole Captain America foreign box office dilemma. The foreign box office will be underwhelming to say the least for anything Captain America related IMO.

 

[jmc]

Avengers has too many unanswered variables working against it currently. I would like to see who the director is for this "supposed' Avenger film first and foremost. Plus Ed Norton will most likely not be back if they have the Hulk in it. Will they be able to pull off Thor without making him seem silly and cheesy?

This is the thing, Avengers has to rely on other films to succeed in order of it to succeed, that automatically puts it at a disadvantage, a majority of films made fail and Marvel is in no different situation than any other movie studio, they will have failures. A Batman 3 film on the other hand as 2 highly successful films before it already, granted Nolan and co return it's not going to have to do a hell of a lot to get bums on seats.

Then they have the whole Captain America foreign box office dilemma. The foreign box office will be underwhelming to say the least for anything Captain America related IMO.

Cap America will struggle overseas, the US ain't exactly everyone's favourite nation at the moment and having a movie with a character called Captain America isn't going to appeal to huge market outside the US.

 

[FaT_tONle]

So now we are worried about foreign box office when we are talking domestic totals...

 

[Evil Twin]

The biggest issue for The Avengers is whether the various franchises appeal to different demographics or whether there's too much overlap for combining the franchises to lead to any increase in the audience. Iron Man's box office might be the ceiling for an Avengers movie, not the floor.

History tells us that it's tough for a studio to hit a HR on 4 blockbusters in a row, sequels or not. That's one of the challenges Marvel faces for pulling off an Avengers movie. I do think Thor and Captain America have to be tracking well early or the idea of teaming them up will be called into question. IM3 might make more financial sense than Avengers.

 

[Cancer4TheCure]

The biggest issue for The Avengers is whether the various franchises appeal to different demographics or whether there's too much overlap for combining the franchises to lead to any increase in the audience. Iron Man's box office might be the ceiling for an Avengers movie, not the floor.

History tells us that it's tough for a studio to hit a HR on 4 blockbusters in a row, sequels or not. That's one of the challenges Marvel faces for pulling off an Avengers movie. I do think Thor and Captain America have to be tracking well early or the idea of teaming them up will be called into question. IM3 might make more financial sense than Avengers.

Very well put - I think the Avengers and a third Batman film will not really infringe on each other's business. Regardless of the finished products, the films will probably two very different tones. There is enough business for everyone. I personally think people will be out-Marveled by the time Avengers is released.

I think there's more than enough for both films.

 

[Octoberist]

what happens if Thor or whatever bombs? To me, there's too much baggage by announcing The Avengers so early, when Thor and Captain America are not even out yet.

 

[DaRkVeNgeanCe]

Im psyched to see what they come up with for The Avengers, but im not really that excited about it.

 

[[A]]

what happens if Thor or whatever bombs? To me, there's too much baggage by announcing The Avengers so early, when Thor and Captain America are not even out yet.

Yeah, it's a real risk.

 

[jmc]

what happens if Thor or whatever bombs? To me, there's too much baggage by announcing The Avengers so early, when Thor and Captain America are not even out yet.

The chances are at least one of their upcoming movies will flop, law of averages says one will. What always worried me was that Iron Man success was going to give Marvel a false sense of security, and I fear that's exactly what's happened. They maybe a new studio, but to me it's reckless of them to announce some many huge films in such a small amount of time, it's only going to take one serious flop to cripple the studio.

 

[[A]]

All these release dates.. were announced before or after The Incredible Hulk?

 

[jmc]

I think Avengers was announced after Hulk but Iron Man 2, Thor etc were announced before Hulk. I dare say it was on the drawing board however.

 

[Bathead]

I suspect its been the plan all along. One thing, according to Action Figure news, during the opening sequence of the IH movie wher Banner tries to commit suicide in the Arctic (Antarctic?I dunno, I haven't seen it yet) And he Hulks out and smashes the ice, if you watch it frame by frame in a couple of frames you can see the body of Captain America in the ice. I couldnt really see his body in the two frames they showed but you could definitely see the shield. That and Stark.s appearance tells me the Avengers has been planned from the beginning.

 

[Nirvana]

Think of it this way. If Warner Bros sets the third Batman film directly against The Avengers on July 15th, 2011, one of them will move...and it'll be the Avengers. You can quote me on that.

 

[FaT_tONle]

All these release dates.. were announced before or after The Incredible Hulk?

Marvel actually announced them after Iron Man's opening weekend (not the same slate as it is now but a similar slate)... look I am a Marvel guy through and through, but when I saw that slate I raised an eyebrow... I hammered Marvel for such an ambitious slate after a three day OW over in the Marvel threads... it's irresposnible and wreckless as someone already pointed out. But I am confident... Thor would worry me a bit but a flop won't be enough to shut down Avengers... two flops and then you have a problem. I find it hard to believe Cap will be a flop... regardless of the foreign earnings...

Think of it this way. If Warner Bros sets the third Batman film directly against The Avengers on July 15th, 2011, one of them will move...and it'll be the Avengers. You can quote me on that.

They'll move because they won't be able to make 2011... script may stink... actors may need more breathing room... directors on and off the project... too many variables. BB3 will be far down the list. But if Avengers gets the ball rolling I find it hard to believe WB needs that release date so badly that they'll put it there next to Avengers... when did a mid July movie ever make that kind of money? June would be fine.

 

[batlovescatDC]

Besides The Dark Knight, all of the Batman films have been released in June. It doesn't matter when they release it. It'll be a smash success.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

Yeah, it's a real risk.

That's what I'm saying for years. This is one of the most risky projects in recent film history and it's only the beginning. Still, some people claim Marvel Studio would take no risks.