The Coronavirus’ Impact On The Film Industry Thread

[Kahran Ramsus]

If they want exclusive theatrical runs then it's time to just put the films on hold until we're finally out of this. That simple.

Can some of these studios afford to do that?

 

[Schlosser85]

Can some of these studios afford to do that?

Probably not. They can't just sit on movies indefinitely.

 

[TheVileOne]

Probably not. They can't just sit on movies indefinitely.

WarnerMedia definitely can. They are owned by AT&T.

 

[Gothamsknight]

What movie theaters may look like in a post-COVID world

 

[terry78]

What movie theaters may look like in a post-COVID world

yeah that line of business is not going to dry up ever because there's too much money to be made. I went to my old college campus on the weekend and I saw in one of the theater type seating classrooms they basically have signs on every other seat saying it's not available so they're probably going to do something like that.

 

[Gothamsknight]

I'm definitely one of the people that believes WB will be changing, or remodeling their "same day as streaming" plan sometime later in the year if/when the vaccines start rolling out more.

 

[metaphysician]

I'm more skeptical that WB is going to change course, mostly because it seems to be a decision driven from above. However, I'm also skeptical that everyone else in the industry is going to follow WB's lead, doubly so since Disney specifically didn't despite having the best opportunity to do so. WB is going to get to enjoy walking into that minefield alone, with everyone else watching from afar and taking notes.

If I had to make a prediction now, I'd say that movies and movie theaters will be back in business once the pandemic is over ( aside from those which got driven out of business, anyway ). Nobody other than WB is going to push for a broad simultaneous streaming model. However, what will happen is that the number of projects actually *started* as theatrical movies is going to decline, versus projects started as streaming works. Anyone proposing a new movie as a threatrical release is going to have to justify that release format, and with the greater prestige of streaming ( and more available data on marketing and sales ), it will be harder to do so than before. "Movies are better!" won't carry as much weight as it once did, you'll need either a compelling case for theatrical being more profitable, or else be willing to burn a lot of personal industry rep on buying yourself a passion project release.

Would this be a good or bad thing? Tough to say. Fewer movies made means less competition and more room, but if the movies released are biased strongly to blockbusters, you might have essentially the same blockbuster space issues as before. The mystique of "Cinema is Superior" being broken would be a good thing creatively, IMO, but it probably would hurt movie theaters long term ( cinema snobs presumably being a solid, if small, revenue stream ).

 

[The Shape]

Other than the option to delay films father into the future, I think WW84 is proof that WB's strategy is the right move for now, in the short term. In the US, 60% of all theaters are closed. The ones that are open are operating at something like 25% capacity. Only 5% of all theaters are open in Canada, and theaters in many other countries are completely shut down or operating at reduced capacity. The pandemic is also still raging and seemingly worse than ever in some ways, leading many people to still be fearful of going out and doing things like seeing movies in theaters.

If there was no same-day HBO Max release for WW84 (ripe for bootlegging), we obviously would have seen stronger US and worldwide box office grosses for the film, more akin to how Tenet performed. But even if people weren't fearful of the pandemic and were absolutely flocking to theaters in droves to see WW84, it would still NEVER be able to achieve anything close the kind of box office gross we'd expect for a blockbuster like this. More theaters need to be open and operating at a higher capacity.

So for now, what WB is doing makes sense. If they can't crush it at the box office, they'll simply make whatever they can and work to build up HBO Max as much as they can. They'll also make a chunk of money from PVOD. But 6-7 months from now? If the pandemic begins to slow down due to vaccinations, there will be a surge of people wanting to leaves their houses to "do something" like going to the movies. And if many more theaters are open by then, I think WB might be kicking themselves and will look to reconsider this strategy.

Their mistake was committing to this for the full year, pissing off a lot of people in the process.

 

[Albright]

99% of all countries haven’t had the opportunity to watch WW84, so it’s not very comparable

 

[Pennywise]

Sony Marvel Movie ‘Morbius’ Moves To The Fall – Deadline

 

[Black Is King]

I'm just going to make a bold prediction and call 2021 another year done for theaters. The vaccines won't be widely distributed for months. I know I'm not going to a movie theater until this pandemic is firmly contained.

 

[terry78]

My mom is losing her mind not being able to go to church and stuff like that, that was her thing. I'm like, just gotta deal with it.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I'm just going to make a bold prediction and call 2021 another year done for theaters. The vaccines won't be widely distributed for months. I know I'm not going to a movie theater until this pandemic is firmly contained.

I think summer is definitely a bust. They might salvage the Thanksgiving/Christmas season. Not if a bunch of boneheads refuse to take the vaccine though.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

I mean none of this is the least bit surprising, but atleast Universal tried and took some initative by moving Fast 9 a whole year in advance eventhough its still going to end up not being long enough.

It's just sad that things still havent actually gotten much better since then, but the first half of this year was always going to be a wash IMO because it was never like things were going right back to normal anytime soon anyways even with a vaccine ready and that already looks to be happening.

I just hope the later half of the year can be salvaged, especially going into 2022, but these studios need to know that its going to take time regardless.

 

[MOVIELORD101]

ANOTHER summer movie season canceled? **** THAT. I refuse to spend another summer here in New Jersey, one of the least-bad areas of the US, trapped in my apartment with nothing to do. Streaming and video games can only provide me with so much. Plus, it's only January, guys! Year's just started. It's not like last winter/spring where we didn't have a vaccine or any kind of proper knowledge of how to handle this mess. Now we do.

Regardless, let's wait until mid-March before we start doom and glooming the summer movie season yet again. I'll understand if releases in March and maybe April get moved a bit. But May onwards? NO. Studios need to start releasing **** again SOMEHOW. They can't keep moving stuff yet again; it's a waste of money and they're hemorrhaging enough of it already! Enough is enough. Do a simul-release if you have to, just GET SOME OF THIS OVER WITH!

Oh, and also, studios, you want their new releases to do well and keep theaters alive? PROMOTE YOUR DAMN MOVIES ALREADY SO WE HAVE SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT! We need trailers at least! Us movie lovers are STARVED for content and are sick and tired of hearing just political BS the last few weeks! I don't care if you want to list "Coming To Theaters" instead of whatever release date you have set at the moment in them; just post previews of your big summer releases to at least distract us from reality for 2 minutes or so! And don't tell us you don't have anything ready. I can list quite a few movies that have footage ready: No Time To Die, Black Widow, F9, Shang-Chi (enough could be ready right now for a teaser trailer at least) Spiral, Godzilla Vs. Kong, King's Man, Free Guy, Uncharted, Ghostbusters, Top Gun, Jungle Cruise, Venom 2, Suicide Squad, Mortal Kombat. And that's just the big stuff for the next few months! GIVE US SOMETHING TO WET OUR COLLECTIVE WHISTLES, FOR PETE'S SAKE, IF NOTHING ELSE THAN TO GET US TO ESCAPE FROM REALITY FOR A BIT! That's what movies are for! Again, enough is enough!

Oh, and if ANY of you even consider replying back to me with "Hur dur, actually but no summer movie season is gonna be canceled again cause I'm a pessimistic *****e who keeps saying theaters are dying", DON'T BOTHER. I'm sick to death of this kind of talk on both topics. I'm sorry if i'm being rude and blunt here but I'm just plain FED UP. And I'm sure I'm not the only one. I haven't been to the theaters since March last year, and again, streaming and video games can only do so much for me at this point. The vaccines are out and about. Biden's coming into office next week and he plans to speed up vaccinations as SOON as he's in power. And my state's comparatively better than a good chunk the rest of the country and my local AMCs are open. Give me my vaccine shots and I'll give the theaters my money. THE DEMAND FOR THEATERS IS THERE; we just need a reason for people to GO. Trailers. NOW, beeyotches (This goes double for you, Sony, you cowards).

 

[Asr]

I know I'm not going to a movie theater until this pandemic is firmly contained.

I've said it before on here, but a movie theater is the only indoor establishment I'd personally consider going to during the pandemic, assuming it was allowed to open. The theaters are being far more responsible and safe than any other kind of business.

Also I think it bears repeating (as already mentioned) that it's only January, Trump is almost on his way out of office, and we're going to have a new POTUS who actually believes in science and that covid is actually real. So let's not be writing off 2021 yet. Things will almost certainly be different this year with Biden in office, as opposed to last year's failures on multiple levels with Trump in office.

 

[Closerframe]

Unfortunately, Biden has his hands full when he assumes office and the country’s mindset toward large indoor venues I don’t think we’ll see substantial changes on until at least the third quarter. Vaccines can be distributed on a wide scale within the first two quarters, but that’s only the first dose and we’ve already seen the introduction of a new strain that scientists aren’t entirely sure about. It’s safe to assume movies scheduled for release in March-June will likely get pushed again—especially anything with Disney’s name on it. They’re not going to push Black Widow to only get TENET or WW84 box office numbers.

 

[Black Is King]

‘No Time To Die’ Poised To Depart Easter Weekend For Fall Release – Deadline

I’m sure more movies will be moved

 

[MOVIELORD101]

I'm getting tired of these COVID-based delays. This feels like ripping an ice cream cone out of a little kid's hand when they've done nothing wrong. And I hope I'm not the only one who feels like this!

 

[Schlosser85]

It's not about punishing you, we're still in an uncontrolled pandemic.

 

[MOVIELORD101]

It's not about punishing you, we're still in an uncontrolled pandemic.

But I'm in one of the least-bad areas of the US! I'm speaking more for myself and the area I'm in at least.

 

[terry78]

At this point every area is bad.

 

[DyeLorean]

I think at this point I'm just missing the "big" movies more than the actual physical cinemas. I just want to watch No Time To Die. I'll be fine watching it at home.

 

[Pennywise]

Chris Pratt ‘The Tomorrow War’ Sci-Fi Movie Shopped To Streamers By Skydance – Deadline

 

[zephyrinthesky]

I think at this point I'm just missing the "big" movies more than the actual physical cinemas. I just want to watch No Time To Die. I'll be fine watching it at home.

Exactly. At this point, my 27" monitor and nice headphones/speakers is all the cinema setup I need - just gimme some movies.