Avatar may turn out to be a good movie but, I'm concerned about the budget. It was rumored to be somewhere in the range of 250-300million without marketing costs a few months ago. The movie doesn't come out for another year and the budget may continue to skyrocket out of control. This film may not be very profitable for Fox unless it easily breaks the 400million barrier domestically.
From what I've read of Avatar's story, there's very little chance that the general audience is going to go out in droves to see it. If the reports are to be believed, it's pretty much Dances with Wolves with a sci-fi twist, and I'm really not sure how well that's going to go over with the average viewer. Heck, even I don't really find the movie's story very appealing, and I'm actually planning on seeing it.
I think either Fox is going to stand back and let Cameron make his movie even if it ends up being unprofitable, or they're going to watch Cameron's cut, say "no-one is going to watch this," and then cut it up to make it less controversial. In the latter scenario, the film probably will turn in some decent returns for Fox, but they'll undoubtedly be chastised by the movie's fans for "butchering it."
Basically, I see the following 3 scenarios:
A: The movie releases uncut, and underperforms; fans blame Fox for mismarketing it.
B: The movie releases uncut, and underperforms; fans blame the general audience for being "artistically blind"
C: The movie releases with cuts ordered by Rothman, and it brings in profit; fans decry Fox for ruining Cameron's artistic vision
I don't want to sound like Johnny Raincloud, but I think Fox may have a "Superman Returns" on their hands. They're giving a director 300 million to make a "personal movie" simply because his track record is immaculate, and the final product might not be something they can really sell to the audience. When you have a movie that expensive, it has to make money, even if you have to piss some people off to do it. It's a lose-lose situation for Fox, so they ultimately have to err in favor of the bottom line.