Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Iron_Stark]

SM3's drops were pretty bad. (Warning, I'm going to bring up TDK again ) Its opening weekend was pretty much on par with TDK but it fell short of TDK's total by almost $200 million. That's a HUGE chunk of change, and although TDK's multiplier was pretty impressive for a blockbuster that opened to $100 million+, it wasn't as good as SM1's multiplier, or obviously Avatar's. That meant that SM3's WOM wasn't getting people into the theater. Or back into the theater. Whichever.

WOM means momentum, which is something you want when you're in the middle of a series. You want people coming back for more. If the momentum isn't there, it's going to be harder to get people into the theater. If the momentum IS there, it'll be easier to get people into the theater. It's the difference between BB and SR. Whose sequel was insanely successful? Heck, which movie got a sequel at all?

Of course, weak momentum from your previous film can be overcome with a really great current movie and great marketing. Momentum helps though, for sure. It makes the filmmakers' and studio's jobs easier.

Again, did people come back for more when Empire Strikes Back did less than the original? Lets see, YES they did, ROTJ made 50 million more than Empire.

Did people come back for more when everyone bashed The Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones even worse? (adjusted for inflation AotC did the worse of the entire saga) Again, YES they did, in fact Revenge of the Sith was the #1 movie in 2005.

 

[hatebox]

Not sure that's an entirely fair comparison though - the hook of seeing Anakin turn into Vader was a pretty enticing one even for people who hated the prequels. Plus the reivews were much kinder.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Not sure that's an entirely fair comparison though - the hook of seeing Anakin turn into Vader was a pretty enticing one even for people who hated the prequels. Plus the reivews were much kinder.

lmao

Indiana Jones, the Temple of Doom made less than than the original then the Last Crusade came back and made more than it's predecessor.

What was the hook there?

And what about Empire, it made 100 million less than the original and 50 million less than Jedi. Did it under perform? Was it a failure? Did they have second thoughts about continuing the series?

 

[hatebox]

Ah, the old rolly eyes.

As I suggested eariler, following up a genuine phenomenon like Star Wars (or Spiderman) is very hard. Empire still made a ton of cash for its day, just like SM2 did. IM1 wasn't a box office phenomenon, so the comparison is already on rocky foundations.

The 'hook' for the Indiana Jones frachise was that Temple of Doon sucked and Last Crusade didn't.

 

[Ipodman]

I don't even understand where this discussion is going..lol

Sure some sequels made less money then the first in the franchise, but Iron Man 2's fate is yet to be seen

 

[Iron_Stark]

Ah, the old rolly eyes.

As I suggested eariler, following up a genuine phenomenon like Star Wars (or Spiderman) is very hard. Empire still made a ton of cash for its day, just like SM2 did. IM1 wasn't a box office phenomenon, so the comparison is already on rocky foundations.

The 'hook' for the Indiana Jones frachise was that Temple of Doon sucked and Last Crusade didn't.

Ah the "not really answering the question because I don't have an answer" answer.

"it sucked" that's the best answer you have? Indiana Jones wasn't some kind of phenomenon, yet the second one wasn't able to hurt part 3.

Earlier people were saying the Avengers 3 and IM3 aren't going to have momentum (with it destined to make +300 mill, I'm still trying to figure that one out) I've given 3 examples of with figures to back it up and still don't get my questions answered.

Like I said a while back, if this was mid July and IM2's numbers were at 200-250, then there may some be concern but this being only the 3rd week, nah.

 

[hatebox]

I don't even know what your hypothesis is. You're comparing Iron Man to all these franchises whose first films were cultural phenomenons of their era, and I'm saying Iron Man wasn't so the comparison is dodgy.

If IM3 is really good then it can make more money than the first. Sure it can. The less than great reception of the second won't help, but I've never suggested that a 3rd would find it impossible to still come out top. All I've said is that Paramount will be disappointed in IM2 not beating IM1 for its own sake.

 

[Iron_Stark]

I don't even know what your hypothesis is. You're comparing Iron Man to all these franchises whose first films were cultural phenomenons of their era, and I'm saying Iron Man wasn't so the comparison is dodgy.

If IM3 is really good then it can make more money than the first. Sure it can. The less than great reception of the second won't help, but I've never suggested that a 3rd would find it impossible to still come out top. All I've said is that Paramount will be disappointed in IM2 not beating IM1 for its own sake.

Iron Man my not be on Star Wars level, but I sure when it's all said and done, he'll be on Indiana Jones level. And Indy wasn't as big as Star Wars, so how is that not a fair comparison?

So 300+ dom and 600+ WW doesn't pass for great reception these days? Or are we just talking about the few critics and the very few armchair analysts that didn't like the movie?

The only disappointment Marvel/Paramount would've had is if it would've failed to crack 200 million domestically. This one is on course to make about as much as the first or even beat it, no disappointment whatsoever.

 

[ddddeeee]

You don't put in $50M extra for a film in the hope of it grossing the same as the original. The movie is going to make a lot of money, but Marvel/Paramount were definitely expecting better results, domestically at least.

I'm 100% certain they were expecting RotF numbers as opposed to Iron Man numbers.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Yes, they put more money into IM2. IM2 is also going to beat IM1's gross domestically, and annihilate it overseas. That is a win for Marvel IMO. Marvel's brand name has more international recognition, which could help their other projects. Iron Man might not be Spider-Man, but Sony invested the extra money into SM2, and it made less. Then they invested even more into SM3. The point is I think everyone is trying to make this film which is a success a failure just because its BO wasn't on par with Transformers, and I feel this is flawed. Iron Man is a sure thing BO hit for Marvel, and they know it will net them over 300 mil. That gives Marvel something to build around. It's not like this is TIH. while Marvel might have been hoping for ROFT numbers, I highly doubt they're unhappy with the results. This is their 3rd film, and it is doing well and growing the brand.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

So wait... people are actually questioning whether Marvel will continue to push forward with their other films because of IM2s B.O?

Errr... 600 million WW and counting is not peanuts.

 

[hatebox]

So wait... people are actually questioning whether Marvel will continue to push forward with their other films because of IM2s B.O?

No. No-one has suggested that.

Anyway, the 'weekend warrior' predicts a very small drop for IM2 this weekend, but with PoP out I do wonder...

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/weekendwarriornews.php?id=66302

 

[Spider-Fan]

It's a holiday weekend, though. That will boost BO.

 

[TheVileOne]

On paper it's odd, but SM1 was a genuine phenomenon. It's hard to follow up a beast like that, just like no-one expects Batman 3 to beat TDK.

IM1 was not a phenomoenon, it was just a big, pleasant surprise. So for IM2 the studio absolutely would have expected/still do expect it to pass its predecessor.

I'd say it was a phenomenon at the time. But this is one of the lamest excuses I've ever heard.

No one believed a movie about a more unknown character like Iron Man could do as well as it did.

As for what people are suggesting, people are suggesting this movie being a disappointment is going to hurt the momentum of future movies. First of all that's a fosh because Incredible Hulk which was a LEGIT disappointment did not ruin the momentum of Iron Man 2.

Second of all this movie is probably going to surpass $650 million worldwide. People really need to be quiet. No other comic book movie franchise has been as successful as Iron Man besides the Spider-man franchise.

You want to know what a disappointment was? WATCHMEN.

 

[TheVileOne]

No. No-one has suggested that.

Anyway, the 'weekend warrior' predicts a very small drop for IM2 this weekend, but with PoP out I do wonder...

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/weekendwarriornews.php?id=66302

Smaller drop is accurate because of the holiday weekend.

Also the buzz on Prince of Persia is not that huge.

Iron Man 2 has been pretty consistent and impressive while movies Robin Hood and Shrek 4 are legit disappointments.

Iron Man 2 is surpassing Iron Man and Shrek 4 is like borderline the dregs of the franchise unless Memorial Day can save it.

 

[Anita18]

So wait... people are actually questioning whether Marvel will continue to push forward with their other films because of IM2s B.O?

Errr... 600 million WW and counting is not peanuts.

Of course not. We "naysayers" are just saying that Marvel/Paramount's job would be easier if IM2 had been TF2-big instead of not being as big as the original. IM1 was a pleasant surprise, but its box office wasn't mind-blowing. It still had room to grow, as TF2 showed. I mean, it was a movie about a bunch of cars that turn into robots. Although, IM1's box office may turn out to seem more more impressive over time, depending on how Thor, Cap, and Avengers do. (See below example re: Watchmen.)

It has nothing to do with "quality," since quality is subjective. We're talking about hype and momentum.

You want to know what a disappointment was? WATCHMEN.

And considering how poorly Kick-Ass did this year, maybe the expectations on Watchmen WERE completely overblown to begin with. And Kick-Ass was marketed more fun than Watchmen certainly was.

We'll see if this is the case with IM1 and 2 a few years into the future. Right now, with the current movies available to us to compare it with, (especially TF2) people are just saying they thought it would do better than it's doing. Almost nobody (official peeps, people on BOM and WoKJ) predicted that IM2 would earn less than IM1, but it's looking very very likely.

 

[souvlaki]

I'd say it was a phenomenon at the time. But this is one of the lamest excuses I've ever heard.

No one believed a movie about a more unknown character like Iron Man could do as well as it did.

As for what people are suggesting, people are suggesting this movie being a disappointment is going to hurt the momentum of future movies. First of all that's a fosh because Incredible Hulk which was a LEGIT disappointment did not ruin the momentum of Iron Man 2.

Second of all this movie is probably going to surpass $650 million worldwide. People really need to be quiet. No other comic book movie franchise has been as successful as Iron Man besides the Spider-man franchise.

You want to know what a disappointment was? WATCHMEN.

I've missed a few pages of arguments here but I'm pretty sure all anyone was implying is that if Thor and Captain America are disappointments that Iron Man may not be strong enough to sell the entire Avengers film by himself like previously thought, and it may cause Marvel to rethink their approach to the film... especially considering how high the budget may end up being for an Avengers film. Most people expected record opening weekend numbers, and a domestic take higher than $400 million for Iron Man 2. If anyone had tried to suggest even a month ago that Iron Man 2 would struggle to make even as much money as it's predecessor would have been laughed at. Is Iron Man 2 a failure? Not even close. Did it under perform? If you look at what most peoples' expectations were for the movie, including many people in this thread that are now trying to say that it didn't under perform, the answer is yes.

 

[TheVileOne]

1. People are wrong.

2. **** Transformers 2. Seriously I am sick and ****ing tired of hearing Transformers 2. If any of these movies are ever like Transformers 2 and make even more money then **** these movies. Transformers 2 was a mind-numbing and horrendous piece of pop-garbage. So it didn't make like $800 billion, so freaking what? Not every movie can do that. Stop freaking measuring movies by the standard of Transformers freaking 2. Dammit.

3. And for that matter freak TDK as well. I love TDK but few movies will ever get that high. Guess what else? The third Nolan Batman movie won't even get that high so stop dreaming. Batman franchise started out decent then took a rocket ship to the top. It's got no place else to go back down. There's no way another movie can surpass the expectations set by TDK.

4. Stop the naysaying and hating on Iron Man 2 and all it's success.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm pretty sure PoP is going to bomb. It just looks like it has way too much riding on it. And movies based on video games never seem to do well. I would not be suprised if SATC2 is the no. 1 movie this weekend.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I don't buy the economy argument at all. Pizza Hut's revenues actually went up in the last couple of years because people wanted a cheap instead of expensive restaurant. Despite price rises, movies are still seen as cheap entertainment (not to mention escapism), and that's recession proof. Avatar proves it, and that had 3D prices. If people want to see it, they'll see it.

Time and again the economy argument has been proven to be bull, revenues for movies were up in 2008 from 2007, up in 2009 from 2008 and so far look to be up in 2010 from 2009, the economy is actually helping cinema thrive.

 

[TheVileOne]

If this movie surpasses the first Transformers worldwide, what will you all have to say then?

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

1. People are wrong.

2. **** Transformers 2. Seriously I am sick and ****ing tired of hearing Transformers 2. If any of these movies are ever like Transformers 2 and make even more money then **** these movies. Transformers 2 was a mind-numbing and horrendous piece of pop-garbage. So it didn't make like $800 billion, so freaking what? Not every movie can do that. Stop freaking measuring movies by the standard of Transformers freaking 2. Dammit.

3. And for that matter freak TDK as well. I love TDK but few movies will ever get that high. Guess what else? The third Nolan Batman movie won't even get that high so stop dreaming. Batman franchise started out decent then took a rocket ship to the top. It's got no place else to go back down. There's no way another movie can surpass the expectations set by TDK.

TDK was an excellent movie, but I saw nothing to suggest it cant be topped, hell, I saw better movies last year than TDK and IMO Inception looks better than it, so if Batman 3 is better than TDK, I can see it making more money, we'll see I guess.

4. Stop the naysaying and hating on Iron Man 2 and all it's success.

I havent seen anyone hating on the movie, I have seen people discussing that maybe its flaws are preventing it from a better BO, I really liked IM2, but I was very dissapointed with certain aspects of it.

Also, you cant argue that the movie isnt doing as well as people thought it would, a few weeks ago SHH posted an article saying IM2 was tracking better than TDK was on its first weekend.

If this movie surpasses the first Transformers worldwide, what will you all have to say then?

That it should have? IM2 is a sequel to a popular movie, Transformers was the first ever attempt at a live action movie based on those characters, there isnt really a comparison IMO.

 

[LostSon88]

I'm pretty sure SATC is gonna be #1 but I seriously doubt PoP is going to 'bomb'. Its geared towards taking the kids, very lighthearted counter option for those headin to the theater this weeken and is being prepped as the successor to the PoTC franchise for Disney. It'll do fine.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=ironman2.htm


Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $253,241,439 48.5% + Foreign: $269,000,000 51.5% = Worldwide: $522,241,439

 

[lespaul59]

I've missed a few pages of arguments here but I'm pretty sure all anyone was implying is that if Thor and Captain America are disappointments that Iron Man may not be strong enough to sell the entire Avengers film by himself like previously thought, and it may cause Marvel to rethink their approach to the film... especially considering how high the budget may end up being for an Avengers film. Most people expected record opening weekend numbers, and a domestic take higher than $400 million for Iron Man 2. If anyone had tried to suggest even a month ago that Iron Man 2 would struggle to make even as much money as it's predecessor would have been laughed at. Is Iron Man 2 a failure? Not even close. Did it under perform? If you look at what most peoples' expectations were for the movie, including many people in this thread that are now trying to say that it didn't under perform, the answer is yes.

Arguing it like this makes way more sense than most of the post I've read. And if IM actually was a surprise and made more than everybody thought it would, could it be that IM2 is not underpreforming but rather preforming just as it should. I hope you guys get what I'm saying.