Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[MessiahDecoy123]

In addition to all of the above, it's also gotten to the point now where the Marvel brand can pimp their new movies and franchises, like Pixar. It used to be that only these historical characters could do well, but Marvel, thanks in part to Disney, has figured out a way to boost their entire portfolio of characters in the same way Pixar boosts its movies. Obviously things aren't always going to stay as good as they are now, but superhero movies will continue to be made and at a steady pace for the far-out foreseeable future.

I'd say Marvel is much better at introducing new franchises than even Pixar since all these Marvel characters exist in the same world as The Avengers. They can just use The Avenger movies to boost unknown characters popularity with the general public to astronomic levels.

 

[KangConquers]

When a non-RDJ movie eclipses the 500 million mark, we can call them something other than a one trick pony. Right now it's all about Tony Stark. DC has yet to prove themselves outside of Batman, but luckily they have another larger than life superhero in their stable. Marvel Studios does not have that at the moment. I think 500 million is a reasonable number for Thor 2. If it can't hit that, it's a cause for concern. I don't think it hits that.



IM3 obviously. I'll give him that one.

I guarantee that both Thor 2 and Cap 2 will cross $500 M.

 

[Chewy]

I guarantee that both Thor 2 and Cap 2 will cross $500 M.

Yep. Zero doubt in my mind.

Also it looks like IM3 broke the midnight record in China

 

[psylockolussus]

I guarantee that both Thor 2 and Cap 2 will cross $500 M.

It will be easy for Thor 2 to cross $500 M because Thor 1 was near the $500 million mark.

But for Captain America 2, I'm not sure yet.

 

[kedrell]

Cap2 will, I have no doubt about it. I think Cap2 will earn more WW than IM2 did.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Cap2 will, I have no doubt about it. I think Cap2 will earn more WW than IM2 did.

With inflation and 3D it is possible, though I think it is unlikely.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Yep. Zero doubt in my mind.

Also it looks like IM3 broke the midnight record in China

$15m OD and $55m OW are in play. I'd say it makes at least $85m, although some think $100m is a lock. Not too familiar with how China BO works.

 

[Chewy]

100M is gonna happen.

4x bigger than IM2

 

[Mr. Dent]

lol and everyone thought So Young would be the death of this. $700m OS is not far off from being a lock and it looks like $800m may very well be possible now.

 

[BigThor]

I guarantee that both Thor 2 and Cap 2 will cross $500 M.

Well Thor 1 almost made 500M so I'd say 700M is the floor for Thor:TDW.

 

[Xeno]

This movie is on track to be above $600M WW by the end of this weekend, once the NA, China and Russia results hit. That's nearly as much as IM2 took in its entire theatrical run, in just twelve days. Unbelievable.


The people who argued that there would be no Avengers Affect for the Phase Two films should be enjoying a healthy serving of crow right now.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Nope it's still not proven until Thor and Cap gross more than $500m. Iron Man was the main character of the Avengers after all so he's the only one who will benefit from it.

 

[Flemm]

The people who argued that there would be no Avengers Affect for the Phase Two films should be enjoying a healthy serving of crow right now.

GotG could gross $1 billion and there would still be plenty of reason for skepticism about this "shared universe" thing

I'm not sure audiences are really connecting with the shared universe per se...

One misstep and the bubble could burst...

The novelty is wearing off...

Avengers 2 won't seem like such a big deal... t:

 

[Hawkingbird]

I'm curious as to which will come second: CAWS or T2?

 

[kedrell]

Domestic it's really a toss up but I think Thor2 has it in the bag WW since Thor's bigger OS than Cap.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If Iron Man 3 can increase 500-600 m WW then why can't Cap 2 increase a measely 131 m.

 

[spider-neil]

You're not giving Marvel enough credit.

Spider-man and Batman have always been waaaaay bigger than Iron Man. So the fact that he's crushing Spider-man and beating Batman at the box office is no small feat.

To be fair if SM1 were released today it with the hype it recieved in 2001 then it would pass a billion, similarly if IM were released in 2001 Spidey would be the one doing the crushing. Things move in cycles and it will be interesting to see if IM is still as popular in 10 years.

 

[spider-neil]

****, that article even goes on to talk about how the studios start demanding more control and the bets stop paying off. Do they even realize that Marvel IS the one making their own movies and already have all the control? Not to mention that the situation Marvel is in with Disney is completely unprecedented in those historic anecdotes provided and the article completely ignores that. That article is half-assed. Just another shock article meant to grab views and be circulated. Which is a mission accomplished I guess.

Marvel has the control but the director should have the vision. Look at meddling Marvel did with Favreau with all the Avengers material that was forced into IM2.

People are talking about the superhero bubble bursting and in honesty I fear it. The superhero bubble burst with Batman and Robin but the main reason that movie flopped is because it sucked. You make a good movie and people will go and watch it.

 

[Moridin]

Marvel has the control but the director should have the vision. Look at meddling Marvel did with Favreau with all the Avengers material that was forced into IM2.

Look at all the space Marvel gave Black & Pearce to do their thing.

 

[KDM1986]

Until one of the Marvel movies bombs at the box office I have faith in marvel.

 

[Juicy J]

When a non-RDJ movie eclipses the 500 million mark, we can call them something other than a one trick pony. Right now it's all about Tony Stark. DC has yet to prove themselves outside of Batman, but luckily they have another larger than life superhero in their stable. Marvel Studios does not have that at the moment. I think 500 million is a reasonable number for Thor 2. If it can't hit that, it's a cause for concern. I don't think it hits that.

I don't know if it's already been said here, but I am fully confident that you will be eating crow within the year t:
Hell the fact that they're releasing a GoTG and an Ant-man movie shows that they're more than willing to try new things and take risks. So it's real tough to put them in a box like that.

 

[OB12]

How do you factor those figures in? Are you marking off marketing costs? Distributor costs? Commission for theatre chains? Foreign market distribution? Convenient to add up WW numbers from box office mojo, but Disney accountants don't add it up that way.

Sure, that was quick and dirty calculations and there are certainly other costs to factor in, but the point is Disney is not billions in the hole like you claimed. I'm sure their accountants are quite happy with the ROI that they are seeing. Marvel has practically been a license to print money for Disney and it looks like this is going to be even more true for Phase 2.

 

[Mr.M]

I guarantee that both Thor 2 and Cap 2 will cross $500 M.

It was augmented with the early May release. Now it's going to the Fall. Thor in November is a good move, except they picked the worst November for it. It will be owned by Catching Fire in its third weekend and I am not sure it's going to open big enough to mitigate that effect, plus whatever else comes out during the Holidays. Hobbit 2 not far behind that.

Sure, that was quick and dirty calculations and there are certainly other costs to factor in, but the point is Disney is not billions in the hole like you claimed. I'm sure their accountants are quite happy with the ROI that they are seeing. Marvel has practically been a license to print money for Disney and it looks like this is going to be even more true for Phase 2.

The acquisitions will not pay for themselves for another couple of decades. You take the 8-9 billion, which we know was the rough figure to acquire the properties, plus the cost that goes into making movies. Let's say 200 million on average, for the big tentpoles. Avengers movies. Avengers solo movies. SW 7-9 and spinoffs. Obviously not every movie will cost 200, but the big ensemble ones could cost 300-400 with marketing and all. So I think it's a good average. You are talking about another 2 billion just to produce the movies. Long term it's a slam dunk, but right now? It doesn't pay for itself overnight, that's the point. Of course you bank on the merchandising and TV shows, rentals, cable fees, and God knows what else. It's still going to take time to see it all pay off.

 

[BigThor]

Nope it's still not proven until Thor and Cap gross more than $500m. Iron Man was the main character of the Avengers after all so he's the only one who will benefit from it.

How in the hell was Iron Man the main character, it was already shown that Captain America had the most screentime.

Besides, Thor grossed about 450 million it's going to blow pass the 500 million mark in the first two weeks.

 

[Norek]

How in the hell was Iron Man the main character, it was already shown that Captain America had the most screentime.

Besides, Thor grossed about 450 million it's going to blow pass the 500 million mark in the first two weeks.

Captain America, as far as I remember, has about 40 seconds more screentime than Iron Man. Besides, whoever gets the most screentime is irrelevant when it comes to main characters and stuff like that.