The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

TLJ Worldwide Box Office

  • $2 Billion +

  • $1.8 - $2 Billion

  • $1.6 - 1.8 Billion

  • $1.4 - $1.6 Billion

  • $1.2 - $1.4 Billion

  • $1.0 - $1.2 Billion

  • under $1 Billion

  • $2 Billion +

  • $1.8 - $2 Billion

  • $1.6 - 1.8 Billion

  • $1.4 - $1.6 Billion

  • $1.2 - $1.4 Billion

  • $1.0 - $1.2 Billion

  • under $1 Billion

  • $2 Billion +

  • $1.8 - $2 Billion

  • $1.6 - 1.8 Billion

  • $1.4 - $1.6 Billion

  • $1.2 - $1.4 Billion

  • $1.0 - $1.2 Billion

  • under $1 Billion


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Ok, let me explain:
1. TFA was the first SW film in 10 years and the first SW film in 32 years to feature the original cast. TLJ won't have either of these factors. It won't be the 1st SW film in 10 years nor it will feature the main cast for the first time in 32 years.

2. These same above mentioned novelty factors were used amazingly in a heavy and successful marketing campaign for TFA. And a successful marketing campaign always brings in the $$$.

3.TLJ won't rely as much on nostalgia.

4. A big factor that might bring it to $2 billion could be Carrie's death, but I don't see Disney trying to excessively take advantage of that.

5. As much as I don't want to say this, you have to consider a part of the audience that didn't like TFA and won't show up for TLJ. Of course, this also goes vice versa and many new fans were attracted as well.

By different animal I meant that TLJ will rely on different factors for its BO numbers than TFA did. It will be huge and i can barely wait for it, i am just trying to be objective. I believe it might hit somewhere between $1.5 - 1.8 billion.

1. This is true. And it won’t have as much of that, however out of the three Luke is the most loved. And we did not get to see him much in TFA. If they show him using his lightsaber or anything like that, that will bring in many.

2. They have the same marketing team, and I have a feeling that they will do as just as good of a job. Showing Luke, and staples of Star Wars included with the love of the new characters, it will help a lot.

3. That’s not really necessarily true due to the fact that a lot use the word nostalgia in a wrong way. Nostalgia is simply the feeling of love for something in the past, which could be 4 minutes ago or 40 years ago. People get nostalgia for comic book characters, Marvel stuff, DC stuff, even things like Blade Runner 2049, The Predator, and now the new Dune adaptation (have great memories reading that book in high school). There’s as much of that as there is in these other films.

I think people misuse that word and some of the pseudo intellectuals out there (not saying this about you) use it as a negative connotation, to try to push down things they think are not “original” when there really is no such thing any more. The Last Jedi will have lots of “nostalgia” (I hate using that word). Stormtroopers, lightsabers, Luke, Leia, R2, X-Wings, TIE Fighters, Star Destroyers, blasters, weird aliens etc etc. These are staples of the universe, and as they should be. I have no doubt Rian will bring a lot of new, but these main staples will still be there and there is nothing wrong with that. That would be like complaining that Spider-man is wearing the Spidey suit.

So depending what angles they push on in marketing, people will be seeing the familiar staples of the Star Wars world as well in this. Just as much as much franchise or adaptations do. As they should. These are sequels after all. So TLJ is going to have those staples.

4. I agree. I don’t think so either. Already Kathy seems to be wanting to take the tactful way, there may be some remembrance pieces or mentioning of her on set things like that, but I don’t think they will make her death the focus.

5. Not really though. Yes on the internet you will always find those screaming about something. But even the majority that did not like some of the similarities, still liked or loved the film. Very few seem to actually “hate” it.
It’s not some controversial film like Batman V. Superman where it really split people. The film was critically acclaimed, and audience acclaimed. The sales of Blu-ray, and the excitement for TLJ still shows that. Even those few that did not care for it, trust me they will be there. I mean what do you think part of the audience did not like it? The massive majority did. It would not have done so well with critics, and BO if not the case.

What made TFA super successful in the BO according to many articles was the film had multiple viewings by audiences. That’s what really helps these big hit films. That is going to be TLJ’s biggest obstacle, if we are assuming it is a great film.

It could not do as well, that’s a possibility. Very likely. The reason is look at the difference between ANH and ESB in terms of box office. Even though most would agree ESB is the better film, with the general audience they did not go see it multiple times like they did with ANH. The reason is because the general audience does not care for slower paced movies all the time. Which will be interesting because Rian has said that his main focus is to continue to keep the roller coaster aspect of TFA, ANH, and Raiders in his film. He said that was his biggest goal. So to me I think he will be creating a deeper film, a different type of SW film, but be keeping to the core of fast paced, and fun for everyone approach.

If Rian successfully does that, then yeah I think the film has a chance of getting closer to the 1.8-2.0 billion mark. If not the film will still I’m sure be great, but if it is slower paced, in a more Empire way I think multiple viewings will not be as plentiful. Does not mean people will like the film any less, but people like the roller-coaster aspect of films and those kind of films if they are actually good get people coming back again and again. That will be in my view the biggest variable with TLJ.

I think those who didn't like TFA will still go out and see TLJ. But my guess is it will take a slight dip just because they won't have the nostalgia factor that they had in TFA.

The main staples people think with SW, the (nostalgia) aspects will still be in TLJ, as I said above, lightsabers, Stormtroopers, TIE Fighters, X-Wings, Star Destroyers, and now the “nostalgia” and love for the new characters as well and wanting answers from the questions previously will still be a big factor in the film.
 
The main staples people think with SW, the (nostalgia) aspects will still be in TLJ, as I said above, lightsabers, Stormtroopers, TIE Fighters, X-Wings, Star Destroyers, and now the “nostalgia” and love for the new characters as well and wanting answers from the questions previously will still be a big factor in the film.

What I meant by the nostalgia factor is that people won't be as "nostalgic" for these things the same way they were for TFA. It had been 32 years since we last saw Luke, Han, and Leia on screen, along with X-wings, TIE Fighters, etc. Audiences experienced that feeling of returning to the OT universe for the first time in 32 years and you'll never get that exact same feeling back for the second film.
 
What I meant by the nostalgia factor is that people won't be as "nostalgic" for these things the same way they were for TFA. It had been 32 years since we last saw Luke, Han, and Leia on screen, along with X-wings, TIE Fighters, etc. Audiences experienced that feeling of returning to the OT universe for the first time in 32 years and you'll never get that exact same feeling back for the second film.

That is true.
 
It's reasonable to expect that TLJ's opening weekend will be huge, just not monstrous like TFA's was. Avengers: Age of Ultron was expected to open bigger than the original, but ended up dropping 7.5%. (And the reviews weren't as good.)

If TLJ has equal or better reviews than TFA, I can see it cruising past $200M but still fall short of TFA's recording breaking $247M. Here are my predictions.

Thursday night previews: $40M-$55M
Opening day gross (w/o Thursday grosses): $60M-71M
Friday: $100M-$105M, Saturday: $57M-$60M (-43%), Sunday: $49M-51M (-11%)
Opening weekend: $206M-$216M
Domestic total gross (averaging TFA and R1's multiple): $741.6M-$777M
Worldwide gross: $1.7 to $2 billion

I feel confident in that prediction. And I think TLJ could hit as high as $230M, which would give it an amazing $828M domestic haul.
 
1. This is true. And it won’t have as much of that, however out of the three Luke is the most loved.

Sorry, but had to chime in on this. In what universe is Luke the most beloved of the three main characters? Han Solo is the most beloved by a mile.
 
Sorry, but had to chime in on this. In what universe is Luke the most beloved of the three main characters? Han Solo is the most beloved by a mile.

This universe.

Back in the day it was Han but after the OT wrapped Luke I would say is the favorite by far. Who does not want to be a Jedi?
 
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We don't really know The Last Jedi will rely on less of the nostalgia factor and references to the original trilogy less at all. IMHO not that's a bad thing.

Force Awakens was liked more because it felt more like Star Wars more than the prequels. Yeah a big problem with the prequels is that it didn't feel like Star Wars.

Why do people like Rebels? Rebels is a fantastic show. The show works because it has that swashbuckling, adventurous, serial adventure feel that Star Wars brought to the table so well. It's still new stories and new characters, but that tone and feeling that's indelibly Star Wars is also there.
 
This universe.

Back in the day it was Han but after the OT wrapped Luke I would say is the favorite by far. Who does not want to be a Jedi?

Yeah, that's just totally inaccurate. I've never met anyone who considers Luke their favorite character from Star Wars while Han Solo is probably one of the most beloved fictional characters of all time. It's not even remotely close.

I do think the novelty of having Luke actually have a role in this movie is a boost but comparing the boost you get from that with the boost TFA got from Han Solo is crazy to me.
 
Yeah, that's just totally inaccurate. I've never met anyone who considers Luke their favorite character from Star Wars while Han Solo is probably one of the most beloved fictional characters of all time. It's not even remotely close.

I do think the novelty of having Luke actually have a role in this movie is a boost but comparing the boost you get from that with the boost TFA got from Han Solo is crazy to me.

Well it's the opposite for me. I've met few that prefer Han to Luke. I think everyone loves all three but most people I meet love Luke. They love the Jedi. It's why 2 of the films refer to Luke and not Han. Han is one of the most beloved but so is Luke, and from my experiences most prefer Luke I've hardly know anyone that sees Luke as the lesser in popularity.
 
Yeah, that's just totally inaccurate. I've never met anyone who considers Luke their favorite character from Star Wars while Han Solo is probably one of the most beloved fictional characters of all time. It's not even remotely close.

I do think the novelty of having Luke actually have a role in this movie is a boost but comparing the boost you get from that with the boost TFA got from Han Solo is crazy to me.
Hi, my name is Darth. My favorite Star Wars character, my favorite character in fiction period, is Luke Skywalker. :yay:
 
I think 1.6 - 1.8b. TFA was a perfect storm of a sort, since it has been awhile since the Prequels and Star Wars fans were hoping against hope that JJ Abrams would wipe the stain off Jar Jar from the franchise. And TFA most delivered. I think there will be inevitably a drop off after the first but it will still make well over 1B.
 
Initially, I had aimed about $1.8B. After this new trailer released, while I think it has a stronger chance of hitting $2B, I still see it falling short, around $1.9B mark.

But I stand by my original feeling of the quality of the film. This is going to rely on a lot of repeat viewings. If this film surpasses TFA in quality, it will surpass it in the box office. Otherwise, I think it will fall short.
 
I don't know. The Carrie Fisher effect will be strong.

Although, a big key will be the conversion rate. If the dollar drops a bit, that will definitely help the total take.
 
I don't know. The Carrie Fisher effect will be strong.

Although, a big key will be the conversion rate. If the dollar drops a bit, that will definitely help the total take.

Agreed with the Carrie Fisher effect. Paul Walker of the Fast and the Furious franchise wasn't even that well beloved, and his death is the reason Fast and the Furious 7 made over a billion dollars. Same with Health Ledger in The Dark Knight. Carrie as an actor is more well known than those two were, and Princess Leia is more iconic. Her death is going to drive people to see the movie.
 
I think it could come close to the record if it's well received, but I doubt the Carrie effect would add that much more to TFA's takings which were heavily boosted. The massive SW fans who caught it 10-15 times aren't likely to up the already impressive number of repeated viewings to 16-20 to make much of a dramatic increase, and the newer fans won over by TFA don't quite see Carrie the way the rest of us do (and are probably bigger fans of Rey, Kylo, Finn and Poe).

Can't speak for the other foreign territories, but, outside of Japan where she's fondly remembered and we could see a huge crowd upturn this December, the rest of Asia are still fairly low key on the SW franchise. Although things can well change by TLJ's release, I wouldn't expect China to turn out in droves at the moment.
 
Agreed with the Carrie Fisher effect. Paul Walker of the Fast and the Furious franchise wasn't even that well beloved, and his death is the reason Fast and the Furious 7 made over a billion dollars. Same with Health Ledger in The Dark Knight. Carrie as an actor is more well known than those two were, and Princess Leia is more iconic. Her death is going to drive people to see the movie.

What is the excuse for the box office smash of FF8, then? It didn't have Paul Walker for the last time or any tributes this time around.
 
$2 billion worldwide or more because the loss of Carrie Fisher will have a deep impact on this movie.
 
Hi, my name is Darth. My favorite Star Wars character, my favorite character in fiction period, is Luke Skywalker. :yay:

I'm also a Luke fan. I've never really understood the fascination older Gen-Xers have with Han. Both are cool characters, but Luke is so much more identifiable and resonant. You can see yourself becoming a hero like Luke, Han is just too cool to aspire to be. Until ROTJ, when Luke's badass rating goes off the charts.

Luke is going to be a huge draw for TLJ and I have a feeling that TLJ will be a better film than TFA, but I have a hard time seeing TLJ top TFA at the box office. It's just the Star Wars trilogy pattern that the trilogy openers make the most money.
 
I have noticed older fans tend to lean towards Han, where as newer fans lean towards Luke. I think the EU/comics/video games helped with that as well.

I love Han, but Luke is my favorite of the OT.


I don't know if this will make more than TFA, I'd like to see it do better, but I don't know. Some people seem to have had a change of heart with TFA since release, not liking the direction they're going with the franchise.

As long as it makes enough to please Disney and to make more, I'm good... :o
 
What is the excuse for the box office smash of FF8, then? It didn't have Paul Walker for the last time or any tributes this time around.

It made a lot less in the United States. I can only judge the North American market. China, for instance, is unpredictable. **** movies will make a bunch there and actually good movies will make nothing. But as for North American, the FF7 box office was largely because of Paul Walker. Then, after realizing the movies aren't that good, the box office in North American for FF8 went down.
 
I've always thought Han was more popular than Luke, not by much but just using anecdotal evidence from real life and the Internet I've always heard people say they like Han more. In 2015 Empire magazine asked thousands of fans to vote online to name their favorite movie character and listed the top 100. Luke was no. 50 and Han was no. 3 which was a much bigger gap between the 2 than I thought there'd be. Han probably is the most poular Star Wars character period, with an strong argument to be made for Vader.
 
What is the excuse for the box office smash of FF8, then? It didn't have Paul Walker for the last time or any tributes this time around.

Well domestically it's not that big of a hit. But international markets love those movies for some reason.
 
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