Solidus
Knights of Ren
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Ok, let me explain:
1. TFA was the first SW film in 10 years and the first SW film in 32 years to feature the original cast. TLJ won't have either of these factors. It won't be the 1st SW film in 10 years nor it will feature the main cast for the first time in 32 years.
2. These same above mentioned novelty factors were used amazingly in a heavy and successful marketing campaign for TFA. And a successful marketing campaign always brings in the $$$.
3.TLJ won't rely as much on nostalgia.
4. A big factor that might bring it to $2 billion could be Carrie's death, but I don't see Disney trying to excessively take advantage of that.
5. As much as I don't want to say this, you have to consider a part of the audience that didn't like TFA and won't show up for TLJ. Of course, this also goes vice versa and many new fans were attracted as well.
By different animal I meant that TLJ will rely on different factors for its BO numbers than TFA did. It will be huge and i can barely wait for it, i am just trying to be objective. I believe it might hit somewhere between $1.5 - 1.8 billion.
1. This is true. And it wont have as much of that, however out of the three Luke is the most loved. And we did not get to see him much in TFA. If they show him using his lightsaber or anything like that, that will bring in many.
2. They have the same marketing team, and I have a feeling that they will do as just as good of a job. Showing Luke, and staples of Star Wars included with the love of the new characters, it will help a lot.
3. Thats not really necessarily true due to the fact that a lot use the word nostalgia in a wrong way. Nostalgia is simply the feeling of love for something in the past, which could be 4 minutes ago or 40 years ago. People get nostalgia for comic book characters, Marvel stuff, DC stuff, even things like Blade Runner 2049, The Predator, and now the new Dune adaptation (have great memories reading that book in high school). Theres as much of that as there is in these other films.
I think people misuse that word and some of the pseudo intellectuals out there (not saying this about you) use it as a negative connotation, to try to push down things they think are not original when there really is no such thing any more. The Last Jedi will have lots of nostalgia (I hate using that word). Stormtroopers, lightsabers, Luke, Leia, R2, X-Wings, TIE Fighters, Star Destroyers, blasters, weird aliens etc etc. These are staples of the universe, and as they should be. I have no doubt Rian will bring a lot of new, but these main staples will still be there and there is nothing wrong with that. That would be like complaining that Spider-man is wearing the Spidey suit.
So depending what angles they push on in marketing, people will be seeing the familiar staples of the Star Wars world as well in this. Just as much as much franchise or adaptations do. As they should. These are sequels after all. So TLJ is going to have those staples.
4. I agree. I dont think so either. Already Kathy seems to be wanting to take the tactful way, there may be some remembrance pieces or mentioning of her on set things like that, but I dont think they will make her death the focus.
5. Not really though. Yes on the internet you will always find those screaming about something. But even the majority that did not like some of the similarities, still liked or loved the film. Very few seem to actually hate it.
Its not some controversial film like Batman V. Superman where it really split people. The film was critically acclaimed, and audience acclaimed. The sales of Blu-ray, and the excitement for TLJ still shows that. Even those few that did not care for it, trust me they will be there. I mean what do you think part of the audience did not like it? The massive majority did. It would not have done so well with critics, and BO if not the case.
What made TFA super successful in the BO according to many articles was the film had multiple viewings by audiences. Thats what really helps these big hit films. That is going to be TLJs biggest obstacle, if we are assuming it is a great film.
It could not do as well, thats a possibility. Very likely. The reason is look at the difference between ANH and ESB in terms of box office. Even though most would agree ESB is the better film, with the general audience they did not go see it multiple times like they did with ANH. The reason is because the general audience does not care for slower paced movies all the time. Which will be interesting because Rian has said that his main focus is to continue to keep the roller coaster aspect of TFA, ANH, and Raiders in his film. He said that was his biggest goal. So to me I think he will be creating a deeper film, a different type of SW film, but be keeping to the core of fast paced, and fun for everyone approach.
If Rian successfully does that, then yeah I think the film has a chance of getting closer to the 1.8-2.0 billion mark. If not the film will still Im sure be great, but if it is slower paced, in a more Empire way I think multiple viewings will not be as plentiful. Does not mean people will like the film any less, but people like the roller-coaster aspect of films and those kind of films if they are actually good get people coming back again and again. That will be in my view the biggest variable with TLJ.
I think those who didn't like TFA will still go out and see TLJ. But my guess is it will take a slight dip just because they won't have the nostalgia factor that they had in TFA.
The main staples people think with SW, the (nostalgia) aspects will still be in TLJ, as I said above, lightsabers, Stormtroopers, TIE Fighters, X-Wings, Star Destroyers, and now the nostalgia and love for the new characters as well and wanting answers from the questions previously will still be a big factor in the film.


