The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[JOE]

Latest prediction:

OW- 210M
OS- 840M
DOM- 770M

Total- 1.61B

And that's a huge success.

 

[spiderman2]

my prediction is 270 OW/ 1 billion over all USA and 2.2 billion WW. People are underestimating this movie saying how it is not the first star wars movie in a while unlike TFA but TFA came after the prequles a trilogy that turned people away from star wars where TLJ is coming off a star wars movie in TFA that people liked/loved and fisher passing and Luke having a bigger presents in this movie are going to help it.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I’m going to drop a marker on $1.5 billion. TFA was a volcano that had been pent up for decades, and they stoked the explosion perfectly with a nostalgia-saturated throwback to ANH. Last Jedi will still be huge — and Disney will make another mint — just not quite as big as the last time.

As always, happy to be wrong and see it beat my prediction.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I’m going to drop a marker on $1.5 billion. TFA was a volcano that had been pent up for decades, and they stoked the explosion perfectly with a nostalgia-saturated throwback to ANH. Last Jedi will still be huge — and Disney will make another mint — just not quite as big as the last time.

As always, happy to be wrong and see it beat my prediction.

0_o So you're saying 1.5 billion domestic??

Jokes asides, I'm curious about your domestic and OS predictions. What are you thinking??

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think there is a real chance this film comes in as the 4th highest grossing film of all time. So around 1.7bil.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

0_o So you're saying 1.5 billion domestic??

Jokes asides, I'm curious about your domestic and OS predictions. What are you thinking??

Something like $1 billion OS, half that domestic. I’m probably low on domestic, but TFA was a huge outlier there.

In the end I guess I’m just betting this will be a relatively normal blockbuster, not the runaway train TFA was. But who knows, maybe lightning strikes twice...

 

[sycamore]

my prediction is 270 OW/ 1 billion over all USA and 2.2 billion WW. People are underestimating this movie saying how it is not the first star wars movie in a while unlike TFA but TFA came after the prequles a trilogy that turned people away from star wars where TLJ is coming off a star wars movie in TFA that people liked/loved and fisher passing and Luke having a bigger presents in this movie are going to help it.

Bingo. This guy nailed it. People went into TFA (myself included) all cynical from the Prequels, but TFA had just enough spark to get us interested in the franchise again. People are going into TLJ with their faith renewed, hence it wouldn't surprise me to see massive numbers at the box office.

 

[Zur-en-Arrh]

I voted 2 billion, but I have no idea what TFA even made, beyond 'a lot.'

 

[spiderman2]

I voted 2 billion, but I have no idea what TFA even made, beyond 'a lot.'

About 68 million over 2 billion.

 

[kickass]

I honestly don’t know how much this will make OW or WW. It will be A LOT but how much is yet to be determined. Keep in mind ticket prices have also gone up since TFA and there are even more specialty theatres around now that offer more for a higher price. My 7pm and 8pm showtimes are already sold out. They sold out the night the tickets went on sale. I can’t wait to see the numbers and reports from Fandango and what not.


So we shall see...we shall see.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Something like $1 billion OS, half that domestic. I’m probably low on domestic, but TFA was a huge outlier there.

Definitely low on domestic. I think TLJ can potentially hit (535-540) million in the calendar year (2017). I'm thinking domestic number will be somewhere between (755-780) million.

No clue about the OS number tho. I'm very curious to see how the OS rollout pans out. Will TLJ increase or decrease from TFA?? Will be very interesting to follow.

In the end I guess I’m just betting this will be a relatively normal blockbuster, not the runaway train TFA was. But who knows, maybe lightning strikes twice...

I don't think lightning will strike twice but the entire holiday season will make sure that TLJ posts very good legs even after opening to gigantic figures. So yeah, I think it'll be performing better than most normal or even high performing blockbusters.

 

[Mandon Knight]

$1.5 Billion

 

[Iceman]

I think there is a real chance this film comes in as the 4th highest grossing film of all time. So around 1.7bil.

I'm thinking something around there.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

Early Domestic OW Tracking is out.

 

[Sithborg]

Acceptable and still crazy big.

 

[Iceman]

Haha, it's so funny that numbers like that can be thrown around for a film. We're not used to predicting numbers in that region at all in any box office threads. This could be another very fun ride.

 

[coreymb16]

Opening Weekend: $204mil
Domestic: $782mil
Overseas: $1.023bil
Worldwide: $1.805bil

 

[Sithborg]

Haha, it's so funny that numbers like that can be thrown around for a film. We're not used to predicting numbers in that region at all in any box office threads. This could be another very fun ride.

With numbers this high, it is just guess work. No where near enough info to get a straight forward baseline.

 

[Iceman]

With numbers this high, it is just guess work. No where near enough info to get a straight forward baseline.

Yeah it is a bit like that. The numbers suggested at least seem reasonable though.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-lays-down-the-law-for-theaters-on-star-wars-the-last-jedi-1509528603

Before exhibitors can begin screening “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” this December, they must first commit to a set of top-secret terms that numerous theater owners say are the most onerous they’ve ever seen. Disney will receive about 65% of ticket-sales revenue from the film, a new benchmark for a Hollywood studio. Disney is also requiring theaters to show the movie in their largest auditorium for at least four weeks.

Ignoring the terms carries an unusual penalty. If a theater violates any condition of the distribution agreement, Disney can charge it an additional 5%, bringing the studio’s total haul to 70% of sales on a movie likely to gross more than $500 million at the domestic box office.

That dynamic has exhibitors across the country resigning themselves to a new condition of doing business: If you want to play Disney’s blockbuster movies, get used to Disney’s rules.

“They’re in the most powerful position any studio has ever been in, maybe since MGM in the 1930s,” said one film buyer.

A Disney spokesman declined to comment on the negotiations.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Disney is the most powerful studio atm and they are going to save the BO in December.

They'll provide a lot of damage control for all the flops in Summer and early Fall. It makes sense that Disney will try to leverage their great situation with SW.

 

[JB33]

$230M domestic opening weekend.
$800M domestic total.

Not sure about overseas. Who the hell knows? For now I'll go with $900M for a $1.7B worldwide total.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

THR has it at a 200M-Plus OW. It’s all just guess work with these kind of numbers, but it sounds about right.

 

[scarlet-witch]

I wonder if it tops TFA's opening?

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

TFA multiplier (dom. total / opening) = 3.78
RO multiplier (dom. total / opening) = 3.43

200 million x 3.78 = 756 million
200 million x 3.43 = 686 million

That's what it maths out to if it performs like Deadline's prediction and the multipliers for TFA and RO.