The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[Grootster]

I'm in the process of typing up my theory on why I believe Star Wars isn't connecting with people, but it's pretty much an essay at this point. I don't really like posting shortened thoughts and claims without proper justification and thought process, and I also don't want it to get buried in this forum in a month, so I don't think I'll post it here. I'll create a blog and post it there, and then link to it.

 

[Sithborg]

I will save you time.

The new movies aren't connecting to me, thus, they must not be connecting to the majority of the population.

The MCU leaves me cold, but you don't see me going around saying that it isn't popular with people.

 

[JOE]

Disney is winning, that's all I can say. What they've done with the MCU and now the Star Wars universe is incredible. Add in the animated films to the mix, Disney is a money printing machine.

 

[Grootster]

I will save you time.

The new movies aren't connecting to me, thus, they must not be connecting to the majority of the population.

The MCU leaves me cold, but you don't see me going around saying that it isn't popular with people.

As I said a few pages back, I'm probably the most excited for this movie out of my friend circle. Almost everyone else I know is like "yeah, I'll see it at some point." Maybe you could try to brush this off as some kind of regional thing, but I'm not convinced. The same people get really hyped for other "nerdy" sci-fi things like GOTG.

I think it's more likely that you all are projecting your hype onto the general population. If you look around and talk to people about it, they're not half as excited for this as they are something like Infinity War.

Edit: I think there was actually more hype around mid-early 2016 than there is now. Back then a lot of people I knew were going crazy over the whole "who are Rey's parents" thing, it was even a pop-culture question that came up in casual conversation. Now I rarely hear about that outside of super fan forums like this and when people occasionally joke about it. It's like the average person just lost interest.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

As I said a few pages back, I'm probably the most excited for this movie out of my friend circle. Almost everyone else I know is like "yeah, I'll see it at some point." Maybe you could try to brush this off as some kind of regional thing, but I'm not convinced. The same people get really hyped for other "nerdy" sci-fi things like GOTG.

I think it's more likely that you all are projecting your hype onto the general population. If you look around and talk to people about it, they're not half as excited for this as they are something like Infinity War.

Edit: I think there was actually more hype around mid-early 2016 than there is now. Back then a lot of people I knew were going crazy over the whole "who are Rey's parents" thing, it was even a pop-culture question that came up in casual conversation. Now I rarely hear about that outside of super fan forums like this and when people occasionally joke about it. It's like the average person just lost interest.

You are wrong.

 

[Grootster]

You are wrong.

I'm not sure you can go by that. Do you know exactly what the majority is saying about the movie? It says that 121,000 conversations were generated after a TV spot hit. For all you know most of those could have just been passive "oh, a new Star Wars is coming out" posts. Heck, the majority could have been negative. I'm sure Trump generates far more conversations than that. Does that mean everyone loves Trump?

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

I'm not sure you can go by that. Do you know exactly what the majority is saying about the movie? It says that 121,000 conversations were generated after a TV spot hit. For all you know most of those could have just been passive "oh, a new Star Wars is coming out" posts. Heck, the majority could have been negative. I'm sure Trump generates far more conversations than that. Does that mean everyone loves Trump?

But we can go by what you feel and what you’re clique feels like? And really? The majority of it is negative? I’m sure you feel the same way about Infinity War on the chart. And by the by, there is a pos:neg ratio. Why do you insist on bending over backwards, and doing all these mental gymnastics to try to back-up a feeling you have, that you can’t base on facts or analysis? Why?

 

[Grootster]

But we can go by what you feel and what you’re clique feels like? And really? The majority of it is negative? I’m sure you feel the same way about Infinity War on the chart. And by the by, there is a pos:neg ratio. Why do you insist on bending over backwards, and doing all these mental gymnastics to try to back-up a feeling you have, that you can’t base on facts or analysis? Why?

It's not a feeling I have, it's an observation. I haven't seen a whole lot of people excited for this movie. The difference with Infinity War is that I've actually seen people excited for it. I'm not necessarily saying all those conversations are negative, I'm just pointing out that we don't know if they're positive. Plenty of negative things trend, the Facebook trending section is usually filled with negative stories. And that site isn't even taking into consideration private messages and whatnot. You can link to all the analysis sits you want, but until I see more actual evidence of hype for this movie among the general population, I'm going to remain a bit skeptical.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

It's not a feeling I have, it's an observation. I haven't seen a whole lot of people excited for this movie. The difference with Infinity War is that I've actually seen people excited for it. I'm not necessarily saying all those conversations are negative, I'm just pointing out that we don't know if they're positive. Plenty of negative things trend, the Facebook trending section is usually filled with negative stories. And that site isn't even taking into consideration private messages and whatnot. You can link to all the analysis sits you want, but until I see more actual evidence of hype for this movie among the general population, I'm going to remain a bit skeptical.

I have given you all the evidence you need. The social media trends, the box office analysts, the anticipation polls. You have been given everything that tells you your observation is faulty, and still you press on with it. The movie could make 230M OW, and you’ll be on here telling us it will completely collapse next weekend. For some reason you believe you know better than experts. You put your faith in anecdotal evidence. You refuse to see reason at every turn, and I’m tired of these arguments. Good night, and good luck.

 

[Grootster]

I don't think I'll get around to the blog post, so I'll just post a short version of my theory here after all:

I think the lack of interest may be coming from the ten year gap between 2005 and 2015. An entire generation has grown up without Star Wars, and I think a lot of people my age just don't care about it, at least not to the same capacity as something that's been relevant during the last decade like Marvel (and even DC to some extent). Most of them have seen the films on DVD and enjoy them well enough, but that's not the same as actively anticipating a new release every year or every few years.

I said a lot of people I know aren't excited, but my friend circle is mostly people in their late teens and twenties, who grew up during that 10 year gap. Of all the people I know, my college professor is probably the most excited - and he grew up during the OR era. (Maybe older fans is where the majority of the hype is coming from?) Older fans certainly count just as much as younger fans, but Star Wars needs to win the younger generations over because, well to be brutally honest, the older generation won't last forever.

Marvel's hooked the younger generations by creating an interconnected universe and building up to a big finale over the past decade, but Star Wars hasn't done that yet. It's pretty clear that Lucasfilm has minimal plans for the franchise and they're essentially letting directors create this stuff as they go. It was revealed the other day that Rey's parentage wasn't even set in stone until Rian Johnson started work on Ep 8. They may end up with a coherent storyline, but they're not creating a long-term plan for their universe, which will keep people coming back long term.

That much being said, we're only three years in and there's still time for them to come up with a plan. (Maybe they already are with Rian's upcoming trilogy.)

 

[Grootster]

I have given you all the evidence you need. The social media trends, the box office analysts, the anticipation polls. You have been given everything that tells you your observation is faulty, and still you press on with it. The movie could make 230M OW, and you’ll be on here telling us it will completely collapse next weekend. For some reason you believe you know better than experts. You put your faith in anecdotal evidence. You refuse to see reason at every turn, and I’m tired of these arguments. Good night, and good luck.

Anecdotal evidence is NOT a bad thing if used correctly. I'd honestly rather form an opinion based on trends I can see and have experienced than to rely on some website to tell me something that may not even be accurate. Did that analysis account for Star Wars discussions in private messages? How about misspellings? Did it account for someone who bought a bootleg Holiday Special VHS on Ebay and used #StarWars on Twitter? Did it take into consideration the many bots and spam accounts that reblog relevant topics? Unless someone went thorough every single post, message, and real life conversation and discovered that more people are excited for this movie than not, you haven't proven anything. I'll admit my evidence doesn't come close to accounting for everyone on the planet either, but I'm also not claiming it as fact. I'm just pointing out an observation.

 

[kickass]

I'm not sure you can go by that. Do you know exactly what the majority is saying about the movie? It says that 121,000 conversations were generated after a TV spot hit. For all you know most of those could have just been passive "oh, a new Star Wars is coming out" posts. Heck, the majority could have been negative. I'm sure Trump generates far more conversations than that. Does that mean everyone loves Trump?

I am so sick and tired of your sheer hypocrisy and utter denial to facts and numbers. You are so adamant in letting everyone think Star Wars is just not clicking anymore with people when we have the numbers and the statistics to prove you otherwise. AND YET, still, it’s all “but my friends don’t talk about it so that doesn’t count! I still see tons of toys on the shelves that no one has bought so that doesn’t count! I’m more hyped for this film than anyone I know even though I purposely ignore everything that’s working in its favour because that doesn’t count!”

When will you get an actual clue? Nothing any of us has said is speculative. Other posters, including DarthSkywalker, has linked you lots of articles literally debunking every thing negative you’ve had to say about Star Wars and how it’s going as a brand in present time. But none of that matters because it’s info you don’t like and you choose to itirate an opposing opinion because you believe you’re right and everyone else is wrong, FACTS BE DAMNED!

Not only are these new Star Wars films making a TON of bank at the BO, literally breaking records for itself and other movie franchises, it’s inspiring a whole new generation of fans. What MCU or DC superhero film has made as much as TFA? Or whatever TLJ is going to be making OW? There’s like, 20 superhero films out now and I’d like to know, which of them has made SW money?

That’s because regardless of what you say or think about this brand, SW can’t be compared to any other franchise. It is it’s own thing. And the sooner you start to realize that maybe you’re not ever right about anything really, the better off we’ll all be.

 

[Sithborg]

A tracking guess of $200 million is not a loss of interest, btw.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[Grootster]

I am so sick and tired of your sheer hypocrisy and utter denial to facts and numbers. You are so adamant in letting everyone think Star Wars is just not clicking anymore with people when we have the numbers and the statistics to prove you otherwise. AND YET, still, it’s all “but my friends don’t talk about it so that doesn’t count! I still see tons of toys on the shelves that no one has bought so that doesn’t count! I’m more hyped for this film than anyone I know even though I purposely ignore everything that’s working in its favour because that doesn’t count!”

When will you get an actual clue? Nothing any of us has said is speculative. Other posters, including DarthSkywalker, has linked you lots of articles literally debunking every thing negative you’ve had to say about Star Wars and how it’s going as a brand in present time. But none of that matters because it’s info you don’t like and you choose to itirate an opposing opinion because you believe you’re right and everyone else is wrong, FACTS BE DAMNED!

Not only are these new Star Wars films making a TON of bank at the BO, literally breaking records for itself and other movie franchises, it’s inspiring a whole new generation of fans. What MCU or DC superhero film has made as much as TFA? Or whatever TLJ is going to be making OW? There’s like, 20 superhero films out now and I’d like to know, which of them has made SW money?

That’s because regardless of what you say or think about this brand, SW can’t be compared to any other franchise. It is it’s own thing. And the sooner you start to realize that maybe you’re not ever right about anything really, the better off we’ll all be.

You can't just link to a bunch of statistics and expect that to be the end of the conversation. As I've pointed out several times, that site that tracks social media trends is not definitive proof that people are excited. Do you really think that Trump, who trends all the time, is well loved by everyone? I know I already used this example, but it bears repeating.

You can certainly use these tools to help support your position, but none of you have proven anything. You need more of an argument than "this website says X, therefore Y is true, end of story." That's not a discussion, and it's very one-dimensional thinking. Life is more nuanced than that, there are all sorts of situations that your statistics don't account for. If you want to convince me that you're right, you need to provide some sort of intelligently thought-out argument along with your statistics, not just link to a site and complain about how I'm wrong.

Also, if I'm wrong all the time, why don't you just ignore-list me instead of getting yourself so worked up over it? I just use ignore-list on people I view to be wrong. I don't really care what people want to believe, it's not like it affects me.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I like how this argument had to switch threads because this Star Wars is doomed argument wasn't going well after the trailer dropped and everyone got all excited. And now we have all signs point to massive hype and a top 10 all time opening at worst. But Grootster says no hype whatsoever. Okay.

Also what kind of intelligent, thought out argument is, "well me and my friends aren't excited so low box office". That is an intelligent thought out argument?

 

[AndrewGilkison]

"Star Wars isn't connecting with people". So I guess all the people that went to the theater and saw Force Awakens and Rogue One did so with a gun pointed at their head?

 

[Vincanws]

"Star Wars isn't connecting with people". So I guess all the people that went to the theater and saw Force Awakens and Rogue One did so with a gun pointed at their head?

Well I guess Rogue One only just made over a billion, so I guess all signs point to lack of connection /sarcasm.

 

[Aximili86]

To the last two posters you listen, yes...

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I remember that fans were worried about whether the general audience would be drawn to Star Wars again before TFA was released but now that both TFA and Rogue One were huge (critical and financial) successes I really don't see any validity to the argument that Star Wars isn't clicking with people.

 

[JOE]

Any early tracking estimates?

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

Any early tracking estimates?

Just what we’ve got from THR and Deadline, which is 200M+ OW.

 

[mclay18]

Just what we’ve got from THR and Deadline, which is 200M+ OW.

It'll be higher once the weekend is over and done with -- I think it could do $220M-$230M. Fisher's death is buoying the opening, fans will want to see her swan song as Leia -- who is a very beloved character in the franchise. A similar 3x multiple ensures $650M-$700M domestic and $1.8B worldwide.

Episode IX will definitely have a less historic opening, likely less than $200M but still a powerhouse come Christmas 2019.

 

[spiderman2]

I remember that fans were worried about whether the general audience would be drawn to Star Wars again before TFA was released but now that both TFA and Rogue One were huge (critical and financial) successes I really don't see any validity to the argument that Star Wars isn't clicking with people.

That is why I think this movie could make even more then TFA because a lot of people where turned off by star wars after the prequles and TFA and rogue one won a lot of people back.

Just what we’ve got from THR and Deadline, which is 200M+ OW.

Remember for a long time Deadline only had TFA at like 190-200 million yet it made almost 250 OW.

 

[kickass]

“Star Wars: The Last Jedi continues to track in line with recent trends. Our range for opening weekend is holding steady between $185 million and $215 million”

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-winchester-house-ghosts-built/

They go on to predict TLJ will have a 3 day opening of $209 Million.