The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

200 milli tracking? Not too shabby.

 

[spiderman2]

200 milli tracking? Not too shabby.

I still think it is going to go up to people are underestimating this movie. People talk about how TFA was the first star wars movie in 10 years but what about the fact that the prequles where not that good and turned a lot of people away? What about the fact that TFA and R1 earned a lot of peoples trust back? What about the fact that people liked the new characters in TFA? What about the fact that with Fisher being gone people may want to see her one last time? TFA around this time was only being projected to make like 190-200 before it ended up making almost 250 million. I see this doing the same if not more.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Disney and Lucasfilms' Star Wars: The Last Jedi begins opening in select foreign markets mid-week before blasting off in North America and other major territories on Friday. That excludes China, where the tentpole doesn't roll out until Jan. 5.

By all accounts, the sequel to Star Wars: The Force Awakens should gross $425 million-plus by Sunday to secure one of the five best worldwide openings of all time, not accounting for inflation. That includes a North American take in the $200 million range, the best opening of the year so far and a feat few movies have achieved.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/h...ice-targets-huge-425m-global-blastoff-1066559

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I still think it is going to go up to people are underestimating this movie. People talk about how TFA was the first star wars movie in 10 years but what about the fact that the prequles where not that good and turned a lot of people away? What about the fact that TFA and R1 earned a lot of peoples trust back? What about the fact that people liked the new characters in TFA? What about the fact that with Fisher being gone people may want to see her one last time? TFA around this time was only being projected to make like 190-200 before it ended up making almost 250 million. I see this doing the same if not more.

Getting trust back only translates to greater box office if there were skeptics who didn't show up to the first film. Everybody saw TFA. People already trusted TFA.

 

[JOE]

Justice League is around 212M DOM right now... Star Wars has a chance to clear that in its OW. Damn.

 

[Mandon Knight]

I don't think TLJ has to win anyone over, by this stage with this three film trilogy and the SW series as a whole, by now, you're in, or you are not.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think it will be short of TFA's opening, but over Avengers/Jurrassic World. 225M OW/ 1.6-1.8 B World Wide. This is going to be huge but I just don't see it overtaking TFA for the record, just like ESB came in a bit below SW:ANH.

 

[spiderman2]

Justice League is around 212M DOM right now... Star Wars has a chance to clear that in its OW. Damn.

lol

 

[spiderman2]

Getting trust back only translates to greater box office if there were skeptics who didn't show up to the first film. Everybody saw TFA. People already trusted TFA.

I think there where some skeptics because of the prequels heck even though I saw TFA in theaters I was very very worried that it was going to suck because of how the prequles turned out and because of no Vader, Yoda and no emperor.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I think there where some skeptics because of the prequels heck even though I saw TFA in theaters I was very very worried that it was going to suck because of how the prequles turned out and because of no Vader, Yoda and no emperor.

They all showed up. It doesn't matter. And even if they didn't, the amount of people that won't show up this time, due to TFA being a phenomenon, will counteract that anyways. Don't expect TLJ to make anywhere near as much money.

 

[TheVileOne]

Highly unlikely it makes as much as The Force Awakens, but it doesn't need to either because that movie made $900 million domestic alone.

 

[Mandon Knight]

They all showed up. It doesn't matter. And even if they didn't, the amount of people that won't show up this time, due to TFA being a phenomenon, will counteract that anyways. Don't expect TLJ to make anywhere near as much money.

To be fair though, SW films have a in-built go to fan-base like no other, you don't get casual film goers with these films, or those that don't follow the series and just 'try it out', those who saw TFA, in their numbers will go and see TLJ too. It's not a 'oh I'll skip VIII and see IX next time', it's a case of see all 3 films in vast quantity of numbers so $2 B could be on the table again.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Presales are en fuego:

Fandango’s press release:

Three days before its release date, “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” has already smashed the record as Fandango’s top advance ticket-seller of the year. (The previous record-holder was Disney’s “Beauty and the Beast.”) Even though the film doesn’t officially open till Friday, Fandango’s pre-release ticket sales for “Last Jedi” have already eclipsed the total pre-release ticket sales of any other movie on Fandango this year.

According to a Fandango survey of more than 1,000 “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” ticket-buyers:

96% are looking forward to seeing the late Carrie Fisher on the big screen.
94% can’t wait to find out more about the relationship between Luke Skywalker & Rey.
83% say the new Porg creatures increased their interest in seeing the movie.
60% identify Benicio Del Toro as the new-to-“Star Wars” actor that fans are most excited to see in “The Last Jedi.”
“No movie creates quite the level of anticipation of a ‘Star Wars’ movie, and that’s why ‘The Last Jedi’ is Fandango’s biggest advance ticket-seller of the year,” says Fandango Managing Editor Erik Davis. “There’s the triumphant return of one of cinema’s most iconic heroes in Luke Skywalker, plus more exciting adventures with returning characters like Rey, Finn, Poe, BB-8, and Kylo Ren. With the promise of epic space battles, emotional character payoffs and answers to some of our most pressing ‘Star Wars’ questions, ‘The Last Jedi’ is the most talked-about movie of the holiday season.”

https://pro.boxoffice.com/fandango-star-wars-last-jedi-force-behold-companys-top-pre-seller-2017/

 

[spiderman2]

So I just saw that the movie don't came out in China in till jan 5. I am wondering how well it can do there. TFA China was like the only place it didn't do big numbers in really. It didn't do bad there but it also didn't do any thing like special there either.

 

[spiderman2]

To be fair though, SW films have a in-built go to fan-base like no other, you don't get casual film goers with these films, or those that don't follow the series and just 'try it out', those who saw TFA, in their numbers will go and see TLJ too. It's not a 'oh I'll skip VIII and see IX next time', it's a case of see all 3 films in vast quantity of numbers so $2 B could be on the table again.

This and that is my point star wars has a fan base like no other. I know people thought TFA would do great but no one had it making 248 OW or having a multiple of like 3.7 either.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Boxoffice.com goes with a $210 million OW prediction: http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-star-wars-last-jedi-ferdinand/

 

[cristianegan]

Italy TLJ opening day: €1,233,026

TFA OD: €1,811,259

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I think $215-220 million is about where I'm expecting this. TFA likely got a lot of extra viewers that TLJ might not get due to it being the first new SW film in like 10 years and people wanting to see what the new direction would be.

 

[spiderman2]

If it does 220 that would be 28 million less then TFA but still great. I am still guessing that it is going to do the same or better then TFA. 250-270 is my OW guess.

 

[TheVileOne]

There is no chance that this film does similar business to The Force Awakens, but it will still do big business. I would predict probably more than Rogue One domestic and worldwide.

We all thought Force Awakens would be big, but probably not $900 million domestic big.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If it does 220 that would be 28 million less then TFA but still great. I am still guessing that it is going to do the same or better then TFA. 250-270 is my OW guess.

You are most likely wrong.

 

[spiderman2]

There is no chance that this film does similar business to The Force Awakens, but it will still do big business. I would predict probably more than Rogue One domestic and worldwide.

We all thought Force Awakens would be big, but probably not $900 million domestic big.

R1 was a spin off it was never going to do even close to has close has TFA or TLJ or even episode 9 if 9 is good.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

R1 was a spin off it was never going to do even close to has close has TFA or TLJ or even episode 9 if 9 is good.

I'm really wondering how some of the story choices they made in TLJ are going to play with a lot of fans and how it might affect the rewatchability of the film, which is what got TFA its big numbers even after the OW.

 

[spiderman2]

You are most likely wrong.

We will see I always thought that a episode 8 could make more if 7 was good because 7 helped to take the bad taste way after the prequles and like I have said before yes people thought TFA would do big things but no one had TFA making what it did so I don't see why this one cant do bigger then people expect to. Leading up to its release TFA was being projected to make like 190-200m yet made 248 so off by 48 and it sure seems like more and more OW projections are off now days. JW no one had making like 208 million either people had it at like 150-170. Deadpool numbers where also much higher then people thought for its OW.

 

[spiderman2]

I'm really wondering how some of the story choices they made in TLJ are going to play with a lot of fans and how it might affect the rewatchability of the film, which is what got TFA its big numbers even after the OW.

While that could be true but even if so its OW will still be much higher then R1 and the movie should do a lot more then R1 over all any way.