The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[Silver Surfer]

I won't lie, little underwhelmed by the OW. I never thought it would push TFA's record but I thought for sure it could bank 225ish. Hope it trounces JW though.

 

[BigSams50]

What are the opening week projections?

 

[Sithborg]

I think mixed/bad reception always has some kind of effect on the next movie in a sirrias has it simple makes people less hyped for the next one and makes people trust the next movie less. How much of a effect it has I don't know.

You kind of have to wait till Sat/Sun to get a better idea on WoM.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

What are the opening week projections?

Latest is 208-214.

http://deadline.com/2017/12/the-last-jedi-star-wars-opening-box-office-records-1202228444/

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So second all time is back on the menu. t:

 

[Filmfan93]

I won't lie, little underwhelmed by the OW. I never thought it would push TFA's record but I thought for sure it could bank 225ish. Hope it trounces JW though.

Underwhelmed by a potential $208+ million OW?

Seriously...

 

[StormC]

I think this will have about the same legs as Rogue One. 210 million OW for a 700-750M finish.

 

[Orba]

Underwhelmed by a potential $208+ million OW?

Seriously...

Yeah that one is a bit of a headscratcher. A $208+ million OW would put it at least 3rd on the list of all time opening weekends.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

The latest word on BOT is that the OD is 105.2 million. That's astonishing. That's a much better preview to OD multiplier than TFA (2.34>>2.09). I think 210 million (105+58+47) is pretty much locked with that OD figure but that's more on the lower end of my projection. Star Wars and it's immeasurable Power !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Sithborg]

I think it is possible that TLJ will be a little less frontloaded, because the "OMG, new Star Wars" demand isn't there. If those numbers are right, it is doing almost as much business on Fri as TFA did. That is kind of insane.

$210+ is on the menu.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

TLJ is definitely going to be more back-loaded compared to TFA. (TLJ is 15% behind TFA in terms of advance ticket sales). TLJ has already shown a better multiplier on OD itself so it's quite possible that it'll have a better OD to OW ratio too. Still if TLJ just manages a similar OD to OW multiplier as that of TFA, it'll give TLJ an OW of 218.45 million. That's gigantic (2nd best of all time) and the final numbers are possibly going to come in higher as the WoM seems fantastic.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Deadline bumping its projection up to 216-220.

http://deadline.com/2017/12/the-last-jedi-star-wars-opening-box-office-records-1202228444/

 

[spiderman2]

Deadline bumping its projection up to 216-220.

http://deadline.com/2017/12/the-last-jedi-star-wars-opening-box-office-records-1202228444/

Nice yesterday they had it at 202-208 so it has gone up like 14ish. 750 over all run is there projection now that would be 3erd all time and around 180-190 less then TFA. Would be nice if it could do 800 a nice round number.

 

[Sithborg]

It was a REALLY good Friday.

 

[terry78]

104M already. It's doing pretty damn well. May be frontloaded depending on how people view some of the controversial plot points. The stuff coming out next weekend may do a little damage.

 

[Iceman]

Modern Star Wars Episode films are a $200m plus OW property I think. The first and the last might do more but that would be an amazing baseline to have.

 

[writer0327]

Word of mouth and repeat views are going to tell the tale. I always felt the OW numbers would be solid, but it's everything after OW that I'm worried about, even more so now that the fan reviews are less than positive.

 

[InCali]

It was a REALLY good Friday.

I wonder if they counted my 2 tickets.....

Hard to believe our expectations are such that if it falls well short of TFA's opening weekend that it would be seen as a disappointment. 2 years ago, we had not seen a Star Wars movie in what seemed like a lifetime and there was so much pent up demand for one, that TFA just went bonkers. I was at the Chinese IMAX Theater in Hollywood at 5am and took a vacation day off work just to show you how crazy I am. The place was packed and it seats almost 1,000 people. The only available seats were in the first 2 or 3 rows off to the side of an over 100' screen. We're we REALLY expecting any sort of challenge to that???

For what it's worth, I think TLJ is a considerably better movie than TFA and will do better than originally thought, but the 2nd largest opening weekend after TFA should not be considered a box office disappointment. I guarantee you The Mouse is more than happy. If it opened below the other TFA (The First Avenger), that would be a different story.

EDIT: It's going to easily outdraw JL's totals.....domestically.

 

[Erzengel]

I'm not expecting a big drop next week because of the holiday weekend.

 

[InCali]

Word of mouth and repeat views are going to tell the tale. I always felt the OW numbers would be solid, but it's everything after OW that I'm worried about, even more so now that the fan reviews are less than positive.

Think of who is going to be barking the loudest. It would be akin to me not grumbling about a Tolkien movie because it wasn't perfect. The loudest are going to be crazy fanboys/girls (prolly more boys LOL) who would criticize God if s/he made a SW movie.

The fan reaction is going to be just fine and the movie lineup through January is underwhelming. I wonder if this movie cost more to make than JL. The funny thing is that advertisers PAY Disney to use their movie name. It's like there's a reverse cost of advertising. They'll need to add advertising revenue to their books. LOL.

I read somewhere that some guy back east paid to use the Star Wars name for his ice cream and sold more ice cream in like a week than he did all year. I don't know if that's true, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Curious about overseas numbers.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

104M already. It's doing pretty damn well. May be frontloaded depending on how people view some of the controversial plot points. The stuff coming out next weekend may do a little damage.

No Star Wars movie has ever been frontloaded. Not even the prequels.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Its opening will probably be a top 10 movie for the year.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2017&p=.htm

If only it had that third trailer. People might have known it was coming out. Such poor advertisement.

 

[Sithborg]

I wonder if they counted my 2 tickets.....

Hard to believe our expectations are such that if it falls well short of TFA's opening weekend that it would be seen as a disappointment. 2 years ago, we had not seen a Star Wars movie in what seemed like a lifetime and there was so much pent up demand for one, that TFA just went bonkers. I was at the Chinese IMAX Theater in Hollywood at 5am and took a vacation day off work just to show you how crazy I am. The place was packed and it seats almost 1,000 people. The only available seats were in the first 2 or 3 rows off to the side of an over 100' screen. We're we REALLY expecting any sort of challenge to that???

For what it's worth, I think TLJ is a considerably better movie than TFA and will do better than originally thought, but the 2nd largest opening weekend after TFA should not be considered a box office disappointment. I guarantee you The Mouse is more than happy. If it opened below the other TFA (The First Avenger), that would be a different story.

EDIT: It's going to easily outdraw JL's totals.....domestically.

Expectations from those that don't follow box office are unrealistic. The old paradigm of sequels building on their predecessor is out when the original opens to insane numbers. It is why I have expectations that Deadpool is going to open up lower than the first.

The fact that a top 5 opening weekend isn't enough for some people just shows that their expectations are with emotions, not facts.

 

[Tony Stark]

More than the total OW numbers will be drop from Sat-Sun. There is something that just does not compute with people's reactions on this. The audience reviews on RT and IMDB do not reflect a solid "A" cinema score, which is the same score the Force Awakens and Rogue One received.

This was never going to make TFA numbers. TFA had the nostalgia factor going for it, and the fact that people were so turned off by the prequels that they wanted something that reminded them more of the classic films.