The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[DarthSkywalker]

I understand that TFA was the first star wars movie in a long time but when you factor in the fact that it was coming after the prequles and when you factor in the fact that TLJ was coming after a movie that people liked unlike the prequles and with Fisher being gone there really is no good reason that this movie shouldn't be able to make the same if not more then TFA. TLJ coming after a good movie and Fisher being gone should be more then enough to cancle out TFA being the first star wars movie in a long time. About IF I don't know TFA brook the record by a pretty good amount and The 2nd avengers made less then the 1st one. Now IF should be big because of the build up to it over all of these years and its villain but I don't know if that is going to be enough to push it past TFA OW. I could see it doing like TLJ type of OW or something. With OW and records and such I wonder how long before we see a movie do 300 OW and how much longer before 200 becomes like the new 100 million. What I mean is 100 used to be a very big deal now not so much has multiple movies are doing 100 ever year. Now its like 150-180 is almost like how 100 million used to be.

Your factors did not matter when you consider what TFA did in terms of business. It was unheard of domestically. And it did that with 47% help with 3D. As 3D dies, it hurts this stuff even more. Only 30% for TLJ.

Also it was the first sequel to the OT. The prequels were irrelevant. TFA was 32 years in the making.

 

[007]

Infinity war is gonna take more than the force awakens.

Look at the numbers that trailer did in 48 hours.

Everyone wants to see that movie.

 

[BatSpider]

Infinity war is gonna take more than the force awakens.

Look at the numbers that trailer did in 48 hours.

Everyone wants to see that movie.

I would bet money Infinity War will break TFA OW record

 

[spiderman2]

Your factors did not matter when you consider what TFA did in terms of business. It was unheard of domestically. And it did that with 47% help with 3D. As 3D dies, it hurts this stuff even more. Only 30% for TLJ.

Also it was the first sequel to the OT. The prequels were irrelevant. TFA was 32 years in the making.

I don't belive that the prequles are irrelevant its not like people just forgot about them and how do you know that 47% come from 3d for TFA and yes its Domestiically numbers where unheard of but star wars has always been big and like unheard of. Like I said already episode 1 made almost 1 billion WW back with out 3d much lower ticket prices much smaller OS market and bad WOM on top of it during a time when making a billion WW was basicly unheard of for the most part. Star wars dosnt really play by the normal boxoffice rules.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't belive that the prequles are irrelevant its not like people just forgot about them and how do you know that 47% come from 3d for TFA and yes its Domestiically numbers where unheard of but star wars has always been big and like unheard of. Like I said already episode 1 made almost 1 billion WW back with out 3d much lower ticket prices much smaller OS market and bad WOM on top of it during a time when making a billion WW was basicly unheard of for the most part. Star wars dosnt really play by the normal boxoffice rules.

Because I am simply reading the Box Office Theory thread.

And they were clearly irrelevant. If they weren't irrelevant, how did the sequel to RotS make 250m opening weekend?

And you do realize TPM's take is what destroys your argument right? It is considered by most to be the worst prequel, but it made the most money. Why? Because it was the first in years.

 

[Sithborg]

Infinity War is different. It has a special type of hype, with so much coming together.

Except that we have clearly seen the limits to that concept. And Infinity War isn't changing the fact that we have see this before. At least twice, or 3 times, depending on how you want to count it. Infinity War is merely Avengers again, only with a few more pieces added in.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Except that we have clearly seen the limits to that concept. And Infinity War isn't changing the fact that we have see this before. At least twice, or 3 times, depending on how you want to count it. Infinity War is merely Avengers again, only with a few more pieces added in.

Wow! Saw it already I see? How was it?

 

[Silver Surfer]

Even though I despise this movie, I am ecstatic that it is coming over projections. I want Disney to continue pouring hundreds of millions into Star Wars content and this is the way to assure that takes place.

Also IW has no shot at topping TLJ, it might top JW but it won't touch this.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Except that we have clearly seen the limits to that concept. And Infinity War isn't changing the fact that we have see this before. At least twice, or 3 times, depending on how you want to count it. Infinity War is merely Avengers again, only with a few more pieces added in.

I just disagree. Especially with the coming together of the Avengers and Guardians. Especially with how much more bankable Cap and Thor feel now.

 

[Sithborg]

Wow! Saw it already I see? How was it?

You can only due the gathering of all the different heroes once, and have it be special. All other films will be slightly hurt, or be unable to catch that specific spark of excitement, that the Avengers had. To be frank, the quality of Infinity War matters little to that.

Will it open higher more than Avengers, possibly. And it will make a **** load of money.

 

[Filmfan93]

I understand that TFA was the first star wars movie in a long time but when you factor in the fact that it was coming after the prequles and when you factor in the fact that TLJ was coming after a movie that people liked unlike the prequles and with Fisher being gone there really is no good reason that this movie shouldn't be able to make the same if not more then TFA. TLJ coming after a good movie and Fisher being gone should be more then enough to cancle out TFA being the first star wars movie in a long time. About IF I don't know TFA brook the record by a pretty good amount and The 2nd avengers made less then the 1st one. Now IF should be big because of the build up to it over all of these years and its villain but I don't know if that is going to be enough to push it past TFA OW. I could see it doing like TLJ type of OW or something. With OW and records and such I wonder how long before we see a movie do 300 OW and how much longer before 200 becomes like the new 100 million. What I mean is 100 used to be a very big deal now not so much has multiple movies are doing 100 ever year. Now its like 150-180 is almost like how 100 million used to be.

TLJ is not making more than TFA. You must be out of your mind thinking so. This film's BO compared to TFA's will be what AOU's BO was compared to The Avengers.

You fail to realise basic concepts on why TFA did as much as it did and why TLJ won't have the same momentum.

 

[spiderman2]

Because I am simply reading the Box Office Theory thread.

And they were clearly irrelevant. If they weren't irrelevant, how did the sequel to RotS make 250m opening weekend?

And you do realize TPM's take is what destroys your argument right? It is considered by most to be the worst prequel, but it made the most money. Why? Because it was the first in years.

Yes 250 OW is crazy but I am 100% sure that if the prequles where much better that TFA would have made even more. After the prequel trilogy I was almost done with star wars to the point where if I had not liked TFA I would have given up on star wars completely and I am sure there are people who had already gotten to the point where they where so turned off by the prequles that they where not going to watch TFA in theaters no matter what. TPM dosnt destroy my argument at all lol. TPM had a lot of hype in part because yes it was the first star wars movie in a long time but also at that point in time there had not been a bad star wars movie yet and from previews TPM looked great. I people knew how that movie would turn out it would have never made the kind of money it made.

 

[spiderman2]

TLJ is not making more than TFA. You must be out of your mind thinking so. This film's BO compared to TFA's will be what AOU's BO was compared to The Avengers.

You fail to realise basic concepts on why TFA did as much as it did and why TLJ won't have the same momentum.

AOU made less then the first avengers movie in large part because AOU was considered to not be even close has good as the first one. Had it been considered just has good it would have been a lot closer and even then that is not a far comparison because the first avengers was the first time we had ever seen a lot of different superhero's together where TFA was not the first star wars movie ever. Some of your guys reasons are just . I am not missing any basic concepts. I don't care how long movies in a franchise are from coming out from each other but if the last movie or few movies in a franchise are not considered good it is going to have a impact on the next movie but for some reasons you guys don't think so. Its a big reasons that BB didn't do has well has it should have in Box office for batman because it was coming after batman and robin. Yes star wars is a big big franchise but that dosnt mean that the movie before the next one in the franchise is going to see no effect when ever other franchise says different. If the prequles where good I think TFA would have had a shoot at 300m OW and 1 billion USA over all.

 

[InCali]

If I had to bet the farm, I'd say IW comes in under TFA's OW DOM BO and final numbers. The movie I "think" could possibly challenge TFA's OW DOM BO numbers is A4...."IF" IW just kills it and sets it up perfectly. It's going to take a perfect storm to touch that monster. TFA was one of those movies where everything lined up. IMO, it was a middling SW movie from a quality perspective; better than all of the prequels, not as good as ANH/ESB/TLJ, and in the general vicinity of RotJ. BTW, I think that makes TFA a pretty good movie, but I think its reputation benefited from us being SW starved.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I don't think even A4 can beat TFA. Guess we're gonna have to wait for Avengers Vs X-Men for that.

 

[InCali]

Yes 250 OW is crazy but I am 100% sure that if the prequles where much better that TFA would have made even more. After the prequel trilogy I was almost done with star wars to the point where if I had not liked TFA I would have given up on star wars completely and I am sure there are people who had already gotten to the point where they where so turned off by the prequles that they where not going to watch TFA in theaters no matter what. TPM dosnt destroy my argument at all lol. TPM had a lot of hype in part because yes it was the first star wars movie in a long time but also at that point in time there had not been a bad star wars movie yet and from previews TPM looked great. I people knew how that movie would turn out it would have never made the kind of money it made.

While that may be true for you, believe me, you are in the minority. The fact of the matter is that there was enough riding on the line and there was enough time for planning that the chances of a Disney created TFA being a true stinker, in the mold of TPM, were basically nil. Does the previous movie affect the next movie's BO #s? Sure, but a SW movie carries a lot of weight and brings in a lot of money. If you don't believe me, just remember that episodes 2 and 3 followed TPM and did just fine. Thankfully, we've had 2 SW movies that are way better than any of the prequels.

 

[InCali]

I don't think even A4 can beat TFA. Guess we're gonna have to wait for Avengers Vs X-Men for that.

I think it "could", but probably "won't". I hope my post made that clear.

 

[Iceman]

Except that we have clearly seen the limits to that concept. And Infinity War isn't changing the fact that we have see this before. At least twice, or 3 times, depending on how you want to count it. Infinity War is merely Avengers again, only with a few more pieces added in.

It's not really just a few more pieces. It's a whole universe of characters and supporting characters coming together rather just an extended team as AoU was. Trailer views don't mean box office of course but at the same time, there's got to be some reason why it broke the 24 hour trailer record so easily.

 

[spiderman2]

While that may be true for you, believe me, you are in the minority. The fact of the matter is that there was enough riding on the line and there was enough time for planning that the chances of a Disney created TFA being a true stinker, in the mold of TPM, were basically nil. Does the previous movie affect the next movie's BO #s? Sure, but a SW movie carries a lot of weight and brings in a lot of money. If you don't believe me, just remember that episodes 2 and 3 followed TPM and did just fine. Thankfully, we've had 2 SW movies that are way better than any of the prequels.

I was in a I will believe it when I see it kind of mind when TFA was being made about it being good. Yes its Disney but episodes 1 and 2 both looked great from the trailers and I can tell if I am going to like a movie from trailers like 95% of the time and you know what they say about because fail me once fail me twitch. So I was at the point where even though the trailers looked good for TFA I was expecting it to end up being just crap and disappointing like episodes 1 and 2 where I did like 3 though. Also knowing that some of the main characters where not going to be in TFA because of ROTJ like Vader, Yoda etc I didn't think the idea of another star wars was even a good idea. So I wasn't going to fall for that again. I am sure there are plenty of fans that felt that way going into TFA to the point where they didn't even give the movie a chance in the first place. Yes thankfully we have had 2 really good solid movies.

 

[InCali]

I was in a I will believe it when I see it kind of mind when TFA was being made about it being good. Yes its Disney but episodes 1 and 2 both looked great from the trailers and I can tell if I am going to like a movie from trailers like 95% of the time and you know what they say about because fail me once fail me twitch. So I was at the point where even though the trailers looked good for TFA I was expecting it to end up being just crap and disappointing like episodes 1 and 2 where I did like 3 though. Also knowing that some of the main characters where not going to be in TFA because of ROTJ like Vader, Yoda etc I didn't think the idea of another star wars was even a good idea. So I wasn't going to fall for that again. I am sure there are plenty of fans that felt that way going into TFA to the point where they didn't even give the movie a chance in the first place. Yes thankfully we have had 2 really good solid movies.

There may have been "plenty" of people who felt the way you did, but I think I can safely assure you that you were in a minority. I was outside the Chinese IMAX Theater a half hour before the 5am opening day showing, at the end of a 2 block line, and surrounded by light saber wielding nut jobs (aka "my people") who collectively ended up shelling out almost 248M during the opening weekend.

The SW franchise was never really in any jeopardy. Any bad movie will damage any franchise, but SW had built up so much good will over the years that it could sustain some damage and still be very, very viable. To a lesser extent, Marvel has done the same thing.

 

[AlluAllu]

I very much liked the movie, but felt that one time in theaters was enough. Well, just now a cute girl asked me to company her, so I guess I'll support Disney some more. :P

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Deadline appears to believe it will settle around $223-224 million once the dust clears. That’s a fantastic opening weekend.

 

[Filmfan93]

I was in a I will believe it when I see it kind of mind when TFA was being made about it being good. Yes its Disney but episodes 1 and 2 both looked great from the trailers and I can tell if I am going to like a movie from trailers like 95% of the time and you know what they say about because fail me once fail me twitch. So I was at the point where even though the trailers looked good for TFA I was expecting it to end up being just crap and disappointing like episodes 1 and 2 where I did like 3 though. Also knowing that some of the main characters where not going to be in TFA because of ROTJ like Vader, Yoda etc I didn't think the idea of another star wars was even a good idea. So I wasn't going to fall for that again. I am sure there are plenty of fans that felt that way going into TFA to the point where they didn't even give the movie a chance in the first place. Yes thankfully we have had 2 really good solid movies.

We've had 3 of those

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Deadline appears to believe it will settle around $223-224 million once the dust clears. That’s a fantastic opening weekend.

Stunning.

 

[terry78]

Very well done. It'll probably do well again this weekend, though Jumanji will get a decent chunk of change. It's been getting some positive reaction from people.