The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[Sithborg]

Competition is a bit more stiff compared to TFA.

 

[JOE]

If this movie does 700M DOM and 800M OS I'd still be very happy. 1.5B is the goal. Past that, all aboard the gravy train!

 

[Flemm]

It's not really just a few more pieces. It's a whole universe of characters and supporting characters coming together rather just an extended team as AoU was. Trailer views don't mean box office of course but at the same time, there's got to be some reason why it broke the 24 hour trailer record so easily.

It's going to be another interesting test of the extended universe concept. Thanos finally arrives. The cosmic story and the earth-based story coming together. The Avengers have disassembled, characters like Cap and Thor have have gone through some significant changes.

I think it's going to be big, but we shall see. That will partly depend on the film itself.

Great opening for Star Wars. Even better than one would have expected.

 

[Iceman]

It's going to be another interesting test of the extended universe concept. Thanos finally arrives. The cosmic story and the earth-based story coming together. The Avengers have disassembled, characters like Cap and Thor have have gone through some significant changes.

I think it's going to be big, but we shall see. That will partly depend on the film itself.

Great opening for Star Wars. Even better than one would have expected.

Will be interesting for sure. Might be some unpredictability about it. Now that we've had a main Episode film and a spinoff in SW after all these years future films might be a little more predictable than the crazy TFA was.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

If this movie does 700M DOM and 800M OS I'd still be very happy. 1.5B is the goal. Past that, all aboard the gravy train!

Yeah, it seems headed to the $1.5 billion neighborhood, give or take a $100 million or so. No one at Disney will be complaining about that.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@ERCboxoffice:

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI is the #1 film in North America--$220,009,584.

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI is the #1 film in the known galaxy--$450.8M first weekend on earth. Andromeda system not yet reporting.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It did... decent.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Yeah, it seems headed to the $1.5 billion neighborhood, give or take a $100 million or so. No one at Disney will be complaining about that.

Not bad considering only seven movies in history made over 1.4 billion WW.

And only two of those were direct sequels.

 

[Mysteryman]

@ERCboxoffice:

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI is the #1 film in North America--$220,009,584.

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI is the #1 film in the known galaxy--$450.8M first weekend on earth. Andromeda system not yet reporting.

You might have to wait awhile for those Andromeda system numbers.

 

[Erzengel]

It should move past the Harry Potter series to be the #2 top grossing ww franchise.

 

[Mjölnir]

Not bad considering only seven movies in history made over 1.4 billion WW.

And only two of those were direct sequels.

5 of those 7 are continuations on established franchises though, and that's generally how you make a lot of money. Just look down the list and it's an overwhelming majority that are franchise films.

That makes the two top earners extra special since they aren't part of the normal profit concept.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

5 of those 7 are continuations on established franchises though, and that's generally how you make a lot of money. Just look down the list and it's an overwhelming majority that are franchise films.

That makes the two top earners extra special since they aren't part of the normal profit concept.

Sure most of the biggest movies are franchise films but that's not exactly news.

 

[Mjölnir]

Sure most of the biggest movies are franchise films but that's not exactly news.

No, but you made it sound like it was a special thing to be a direct sequel and I don't think that stands out from the other franchise films.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

No, but you made it sound like it was a special thing to be a direct sequel and I don't think that stands out from the other franchise films.

It's a subcategory that deserves a distinction due to how rare it is for a direct sequel to make over 1.4 billion.

We can then ask ourselves why is it so rare.

 

[InCali]

You might have to wait awhile for those Andromeda system numbers.

Yeah...like two and a half million years.

 

[FunkMiller]

Yeah...like two and a half million years.

So... about the time they make Justice League 2 then?

 

[InCali]

So... about the time they make Justice League 2 then?

I think we get those numbers just before.....

 

[fancyarcher]

Only 11% off TFA's opening weekend number. Not bad, not bad at all.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Deadline with some very early numbers:

Currently we hear that Last Jedi is clocking past $20M for Monday. That’s more than Rogue One‘s first Monday of $17.6M, but less than Force Awakens $40.1M Monday. More schools were on break following the opening weekends of Force Awakens (77%) and Rogue One (48%) and today there’s only 31% on vacation. By Christmas that figure grows to 100%. Last Jedi‘s second weekend will be more about the four-day than the three as all evening business will drop on Sunday night given that it’s Christmas eve. Currently industry figures peg the Rian Johnson’s film second go-round at $88M-$90M. Rogue One‘s second three-day was $64M while Force Awakens grossed $149.2M.

http://deadline.com/2017/12/the-last-jedi-star-wars-opening-box-office-records-1202228444/

 

[spiderman2]

Deadline with some very early numbers:



http://deadline.com/2017/12/the-last-jedi-star-wars-opening-box-office-records-1202228444/

So its that good? Monday would be more then RO but like half or so of TFA first Monday but the school being out thing is interesting. Also the 2nd weekend sounds like a bigger drop then I was expecting but at the same time TFA second weekend was nuts has it made more on its 2nd weekend then a lot of movies make on the first weekend.

 

[spiderman2]

So outside of China is the movie out ever where else? So comparing it to TFA its opening weekend is about 78 million less but TFA had 52 million in China OW and TLJ is not out there yet. So take that away and its opening weekend is really only like 26 million less and considering its USA numbers are like 27-28 million less then TFA that means the rest of its OS numbers are like eqaule to TFA.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Just beat JW worldwide and I'm good.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Just beat JW worldwide and I'm good.

Going to be tough.

 

[spiderman2]

It is way to soon to really now where this will finish we havnt even had a 2nd weekend yet to see like what kind of legs the movie is going to have and the movie is not out in China yet. With the movie being at about 450 after its OW WW I think at worst I think we are going to get 100 China that would mean 550. Then I think at worst the movie gets to 700 USA that would mean about another 480 and say the same OS that would mean another 960 WW to add to what its at + the China number. That would mean about 1.5 billion.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Going to be tough.

Yeah, just saw the Monday numbers, half of TFA, only 3 mil above Rogue One. JW might be a photo finish.